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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox offense has caught fire recently, and they now rank sixth in the MLB in runs scored, 17th in home runs, 12th in team batting average, and 14th in OPS. They were at their best in Boston in 2018, but the Red Sox still featured a .255 average with a .426 slugging percentage and a .756 OPS on the road. They also averaged 5.0 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game away from home last season. Keep in mind, they are moving to another hitter friendly stadium in Baltimore tonight. They are -160 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on this slate at 5.4 runs.
Boston gets a matchup against John Means, who has thrown well through eight games (four starts). Overall, he owns a 3-3 record with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. He’s due for regression, though, as he owns a 4.65 xFIP and a 4.04 SIERA in 2019. Means has struggled with a 41.1% fly ball rate, while also allowing a 13.3% HR/FB rate. He also owns a 22.7% strikeout rate to go along with a 14.7% swinging strike rate this season. Means has only allowed a 20.3% hard hit rate this season, but he has also posted only a 13.5% soft hit rate. He has thrown extremely limited innings throughout his carer, and he has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .261 average with a .478 slugging percentage and a .339 wOBA. He has also allowed righties to hit for a .253/.440/.325 line against him. These numbers are extremely limited, though, so take them with a grain of salt. Boston features one of the best offenses in the MLB that is due for positive regression, and they should find plenty of success in a hitter friendly stadium tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Astros
Again, we have the Houston Astros as the “Vegas Stack.” They recently saw positive regression, as they rank 12th in the MLB in runs scored, third in home runs, and first in team batting average and OPS. The Astros were better on the road last season, but they still posted a .248 average with a .403 slugging percentage and a .730 OPS at home in 2018. They also averaged 4.6 runs and 2.7 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Tonight, they are -269 favorites in a game set at 8 runs. They feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.1 runs.
The Astros get a matchup against Jakob Junis, who has seen mixed results this season. He owns a 3-2 record with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP through seven starts. He has also posted a 4.20 xFIP and a 4.36 SIERA in those starts. Junis has held his opponents to a 29.8% fly ball rate, but he has allowed a 13.9% HR/FB, which is actually slightly below his career average. Junis has also allowed a 38.8% hard hit rate, while recording only a 13.2% soft hit rate in 2019. He has recorded a 20.1% strikeout rate to go along with a 10.1% swinging strike rate this season, as well. In 2018, Junis struggled against nearly everyone, but he allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .278 average with a .450 slugging percentage and a .339 wOBA. He also allowed righties to hit for a .251/.460/.324 line last season, though. While this is a pitcher friendly stadium, Houston should find plenty of success in this particular matchup.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers have featured an elite offense early in the 2019 season. Through 36 games, they rank second in the MLB in runs scored, fourth in home runs, seventh in team batting average, and sixth in OPS. They struggled at times at home in 2018, where they recorded a .242 average with a .433 slugging percentage and a .754 OPS. The Dodgers also averaged 4.5 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game in Los Angeles last season. They are -156 favorites in a game set at 8 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.5 runs on this slate.
Kevin Gausman will be taking the mound for the Atlanta Braves tonight. He has struggled a bit this season, posting a 1-2 record with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP through six starts. He has also recorded a 4.07 xFIP and a 3.98 SIERA in those games. Gausman has allowed his opponents to post 42.9% fly ball and 15.2% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has recorded a 35.4% hard hit rate, while also recording only a 15.9% soft hit rate this season. Gausman’s strikeout rate is up to 26.6% this season, while his swinging strike rate has increased to 12.6%. He has a reverse splits pitcher in 2018, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .281 average with a .459 slugging percentage and a .339 wOBA. He also allowed his opponents to hit for a .265/.421/.323 line when throwing on the road in 2018. The Dodgers are surprisingly cheap, and they’re in a spot to go overlooked. With that being said, they come with as much upside as any team on this slate tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Michael Chavis
Chavis has obviously seen only a small sample size of MLB at-bats, but he enters this game with 0.029 wOBA and 0.311 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He also enters this game with 38% hard hit and 54% fly ball rates to go along with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Hunter Dozier
Dozier is another player who has caught fire recently, as he has posted 48% hard hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also been a reverse splits hitter, posting 0.064 wOBA and 0.163 ISO differentials against right-handed batters. This is a tough matchup, so he could be a low owned home run tonight.
Cody Bellinger
Bellinger is hitting .400 with three home runs over his last 10 games. He has also posted 54% hard hit and 38% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also enters this game with 0.106 wOBA and 0.138 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Anthony Rizzo
Rizzo has found plenty of success against right-handed pitching, posting 0.09 wOBA and 0.111 ISO differentials against righties. He also owns nine extra-base hits (four home runs) over his last 10 games. Over the last 15 days, he has posted 40% hard hit and 45% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity, as well.
Alex Bregman
Bregman owns five home runs over his last five games, and he posted two home runs the last time we posted him in this slot. It’s time to go back to the well. Over the last 15 days, he owns 54% hard hit and 63% fly ball rates to go along with a 97 MPH exit velocity. In 2018, Bregman posted a .517 slugging percentage and a .243 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jhoulys Chacin
Chacin has struggled quite a bit this season, posting a 3-3 record with a 5.24 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP through seven starts. He has also struggled with a 5.69 xFIP and a 5.56 SIERA in 2019. Chacin has posted a 2-0 record with a 2.76 ERA through three starts at home, though. He has allowed a 46.5% fly ball rate with a 15.2% HR/FB rate. Those numbers are unsustainable and will see positive regression, though, as he is throwing his sinker at one of the highest rates of his career. Chacin’s strikeout rate is also down to 18.6% while his swinging strike rate sits at only 7.7%. Still, he’s a -105 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of only 4.0 runs tonight.
Chacin gets a plus matchup against the Washington Nationals, who are dealing with injuries to their offense. They lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking in the bottom-three in team wOBA. Last season, Chacin held right-handed batters to a .178 average with a .284 slugging percentage and a .234 OPS. Washington is expected to feature seven right-handed batters in their lineup tonight. Chacin home success against tough offenses is a bit surprising this season, but his low price tag makes him a player that can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Corey Seager
Seager’s numbers don’t jump off the page over his last 10 games, as he’s only hitting .114 with a .200 slugging percentage and a .400 OPS over that span. He owns three extra-base hits and three RBIs over that span. With that being said, he owns 39% hard hit and 45% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been at his best against right-handed pitching, as well, as he brings 0.057 wOBA and 0.134 ISO differentials against righties into this game.
Seager gets a great matchup against Kevin Gausman, who has been outlined above. He’s expected to hit second in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and he’s a player who could see a breakout soon based on his advanced metrics. Seager’s price tag is a bit ridiculous, and he’s a strong part of this stack, along with Justin Turner, who has been outlined in my Battle of the Bales article.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
