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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
Once again, the Colorado Rockies make up the “Chalk Stack” tonight. They have featured plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2019 season, ranking 13th in the MLB in runs scored, 16th in home runs, 22nd in team batting average, and 21st in OPS. For obvious reasons, Colorado was a significantly better offense at home in 2018. They posted a .287 average with a .503 slugging percentage and an .852 OPS over 81 home games. They also averaged 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Rockies are -126 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.6 runs.
Colorado gets a matchup against Luke Weaver, who has thrown relatively well this season. Through six starts, he owns a 2-1 record with a 3.73 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He has also posted a 3.39 xFIP and a 3.44 SIERA in those contests. Weaver has held his opponents to a 33% fly ball rate in 2019, while he has allowed a 13.8% HR/FB rate this season. Furthermore, he has allowed a 44.9% hard hit rate, which is likely to catch up to him at some point, specifically in a hitter friendly stadium like Coors Field. Weaver’s strikeout rate is up to 26.9% with his swinging strike rate sitting at 10.4% in 2019. In 2018, he struggled mightily against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .291 average with a .470 slugging percentage and a .363 wOBA. He also allowed righties to hit for a .261/.409/.314 line last season. Weaver could find continued success throughout the season, but this is a matchup to attack him, as Colorado features an elite offense at home.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros have an offense that could be due for positive regression as the season continues. They rank sixth in the MLB in home runs, first in team batting average, and third in OPS, but they only rank 21st in the league in runs scored. The Astros were a better offense on the road last season, where they posted a .262 average with a .446 slugging percentage and a .777 OPS. They also averaged 5.2 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game away from home in 2018. Houston is currently a -129 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.6 runs tonight.
The Astros get a matchup against a struggling Trevor Cahill. He enters this game with a 1-2 record, 5.93 ERA, and 1.35 WHIP through six starts. He has also struggled with a 5.01 xFIP and a 4.71 SIERA in 2019. Surprisingly, Cahill has allowed his opponents to hit for 39.4% fly ball and 24.3% HR/FB rates, which are significantly higher than his career averages. Cahill has also allowed a 41.1% hard hit rate, while recording only an 18.9% soft hit rate this season. He has struggled with an 18.8% strikeout rate, while his swinging strike rate is a bit more impressive at 10.8%. Cahill has struggled against left-handed batters throughout his career, allowing them to hit for a .266 average with a .422 slugging percentage and a .335 wOBA. That has been the case this season, as well, but the entire Houston lineup is in play here. They come with elite upside as an offense, and will see a minor boost in ballpark factor from playing on the road here.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels have found some offensive success this season, ranking 14th in the MLB in runs scored, 17th in home runs and OPS, and 20th in team batting average through 32 games. They featured a relatively similar offense at home and on the road last season. Through 81 home games, the Angels hit for a .237 average with a .418 slugging percentage and a .731 OPS. They also averaged 4.4 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game in those contests. They are +117 underdogs in a game set at 10.5 runs, but they still own an implied run total of 5.0 runs tonight.
Wade Miley will be taking the mound for the Houston Astros tonight. He has thrown well on paper this season, bringing a 1-2 record with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP through six starts into this game. He has struggled a bit more than that represents, though, as he owns a 4.52 xFIP and 4.65 SIERA this season. He has held his opponents to only a 32.1% fly ball rate to go along with an 11.4% HR/FB rate. With that being said, he has allowed a 40.4% hard hit rate this season. Miley’s strikeout rate is down to 15.2% in 2019, while his swinging strike rate sits at 9.1%. Throughout his career, he has struggled against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .275 average with a .435 slugging percentage and a .335 wOBA. He has also struggled on the road, where he has allowed his opponents to post a .272/.409/.327 line throughout his career. The Angels feature a sneaky stack, especially with their right-handed loaded lineup, and they will likely go overlooked as underdogs on a slate with plenty of big offenses.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Ketel Marte
Marte posted two home runs for us last night, and we’re going back to the well. Over the last 15 days, he has recorded 48% hard hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity. He also enters this game with 0.114 wOBA and 0.159 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
Wil Myers
Myers has found plenty of success against left-handed pitching, as he enters this game with 0.111 wOBA and 0.123 ISO differentials against lefties. He has also been playing well recently, as he has posted 40% hard hit and fly ball rates with an 89 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Albert Pujols
Pujols is another right-handed batter, who has found success against left-handed pitching, recording 0.003 wOBA and 0.076 ISO differentials against lefties. Over the last 15 days, he has posted 48% hard hit and 41% fly ball rates with a 91 MPH exit velocity. This is a plus matchup, as well.
Justin Turner
Continuing the trend, Turner enters this game with plenty of success against left-handed pitching. He brings 0.026 wOBA and 0.062 ISO differentials against lefties into this game. He has also found success over the last 15 days, posting 50% hard hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 97 MPH exit velocity.
Alex Bregman
Bregman has been at his best against left-handed pitching, but he still posted a .274 average with a .517 slugging percentage and a .243 ISO against right-handed pitching. Over that last 15 days, he has recorded 50% hard hit and 60% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity. He is also hitting third in the Houston Astros lineup.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Chris Bassitt
Bassitt has been throwing at an extremely high level this season, although he only has two starts. He owns a 1-0 record with a 0.75 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. This is backed by an impressive 2.93 xFIP and a 3.09 SIERA, as well. The sample size is limited, but Bassitt has held his opponents to 30.8% fly ball and 12.5% HR/FB rates this season. He has also held his opponents to a 30.8% soft hit rate in 2019. Bassitt’s strikeout rate is up to 34%, which is nearly double his career average. With that being said, his swinging strike rate sits at 14.4%, as well, suggesting he may not see as much regression as many are expecting. He’s a -105 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of only 4.0 runs tonight.
Bassitt gets a matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who feature one of the lowest strikeout rates on the slate, but also rank as a below average offense in terms of team wOBA. Bassitt has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, holding left-handed batters to a .229 average with a .336 slugging percentage and a .294 wOBA. Bassitt may not be able to continue his strikeout rate in this matchup, but he’s far too cheap for someone with his current talent. He’s a pitcher that can be considered in all leagues on this slate tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Kevan Smith
Smith has been heating up recently, hitting .300 with a .467 slugging percentage and an .830 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns three extra-base hits (one home run) and three RBIs over that span. Smith has also posted a 45% hard hit rate with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Smith has also found plenty of success against left-handed pitching, as he enters this game with 0.193 wOBA and 0.096 ISO differentials against lefties.
He gets a plus matchup against Wade Miley, who has been outlined above. Smith is hitting seventh in the Los Angeles Angels lineup, and he has flashed consistency and upside for his price tag recently. He’s a player that may go a bit overlooked tonight, but he makes a strong option in all leagues.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
