Pitchers
Caleb Smith- It’s hard to argue with Smith on this slate, he’s been one of the best pitchers in the league this season, he has strikeout ability, and he gets an above-average matchup with the Padres who strike out the fourth-most in the league despite being primarily right-handed. I’m not really worried about the amount of righties, seeing as he strikes them out at a 33.0%+ clip this year, but the does allow above-average fly balls and hard hits and the Padres have pop. Overall, the strikeout upside is there, the matchup is good, and I really don’t see him becoming chalk. For now, Smith is atop my board in all formats, especially if it’s possible to fit in the Rockies with him in cash games.
Trevor Bauer- Bauer is probably going to be the chalk on DraftKings, and it’s hard to argue with that given his price of only $9,200. Bauer has had a rough stretch mainly due to his control/walks, but we shouldn’t need to worry about that much as the White Sox rank second to last in the MLB in walk percentage against right-handed pitching. The strikeout upside is there for Bauer in this matchup, and always has been, and while I’m not on him on FanDuel, he’s a solid cash game play on DraftKings (too low of a price).
Zack Wheeler- Wheeler has crept higher and higher on my board throughout the day, and the more I’ve researched the more I don’t think anyone is going to be playing him. He’s a narrow -116 favorite, and with the presence of some of the other expensive pitching options, I’m thinking he will be the odd man out. He’s been on a tear with almost 29.0% strikeouts and 12.5% swinging strikes over the last 30 days, and the Diamondbacks are a better matchup than they appear. They come into tonight just 20th in wRC+ against righties (90), along with 23.0% strikeouts. He’s also getting over 50.0% ground balls to righties this season, and he should see 5-6 of them in the Arizona lineup tonight. Overall, I’m probably going to end up higher on Wheeler than the field, and he just seems to get going a bit too overlooked to me, and I’ll be taking advantage of it.
Mike Foltynewicz- This is an interesting play to me, especially now that it seems like he could become quite a bit chalkier than I had originally expected. Folty finally had a good start in his last outing against St. Louis, his velocity was up again, he struck out seven, and it’s closest thing we have gotten to the 2018 version of him. If he was in any other matchup, we probably wouldn’t be on him as much, but of course he draws the Detroit Tigers who strike out 26.2% of the time against right-handed pitchers (3rd most) and will send at least six righties to the plate. I ultimately will lean GPP-only here, but I do think he is a good play, I just hope the ownership doesn’t get out of control.
Note: I’m adding Yu Darvish to the DK cash pool at only $7,000
Tournament Pool: Chris Sale, Caleb Smith, Mike Foltynewicz, Yu Darvish, Joey Lucchesi
Building Blocks
Nolan Arenado/Trevor Story- I really try not to list Coors options here, but up against Edwin Jackson…we are 100% building around these two in all formats on Friday night.
Alex Verdugo- Verdugo continues to be one of the best young players in the MLB, and yet he’s never brought up in any of those conversations. He owns a 46.2% hard-contact rate against right-handed pitchers this season (.198 ISO) and provides cheap exposure to one of my favorite offensive spots on the slate. Furthermore, Arrieta has relied on his sinker a ton this season, throwing it 50% of the time against left-handed batters…a pitch that Verdugo sports a .416 xwOBA and a .261 ISO against this season.
Kyle Schwarber- Schwarber has been on fire since taking over the leadoff spot for the Cubs, and he finds himself in another good spot tonight against Miles Mikolas. Schwarber owns over a 40% fly ball and hard hit rate over the last 30 days, and Mikolas comes into this game allowing 2.7 HR/9 to left-handed batters.
Stacks
1. Dodgers- With the Rockies being the clear chalk tonight with a near 7 implied run total, I don’t think any other offense will garner a ton of individual attention. The Dodgers are my favorite overall stack against Jake Arrieta, who has been horrible against left-handed batters this season. For reference, Arrieta’s xFIP jumps from 3.21 to 5.89 against lefties, with his ground balls dropping from 61.6% to 39.3%. He also is allowing over a .200 ISO to batters from the left-side, and it could be a long night for him against Cody Bellinger, Joc Pederson, Max Muncy, Alex Verdugo and Corey Seager.
2. I have no clear second stack today, it’s more about finding pieces to fit in around the Rockies and Dodgers for me, some that fit that mold are the Pirates lefties, Indians, and Brewers lefties.
Chalk Stacks: Rockies
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
