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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Mike Foltynewicz
Mike Foltynewicz enters this game with a 1-3 record to go along with a 5.67 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP through six starts. He hasn’t statistically been unlucky, as his 5.42 xFIP and 5.00 SIERA nearly match his ERA, but he has allowed five unearned runs already this season. Foltynewicz biggest issues this season have been his 46.2% fly ball and 20.4% HR/FB rates, although he could see positive regression on each of those rates, as he hasn’t changed his pitch mix too much aside from throwing more sinkers, which is a ground ball pitch. His strikeout rate has dropped to 16.6% this season, although his swinging strike rate has remained at 10%. Between positive fly ball and strikeout regression, we could continue to see the Foltynewicz that dominated the St. Louis Cardinals over six innings in his last start. He’s a -163 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and he can be considered in all leagues for his current price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: Foltynewicz is my favorite pitching option on tonight’s slate. Great recommendation, Justin.
Jason’s Pick: Joey Lucchesi
Joey Lucchesi makes for an interesting option, especially in cash games. Generally speaking, a higher strikeout prediction is better than a lower implied run total, but tonight, the Miami Marlins are travelling to San Diego. The Marlins strikeout 0.230 times per at-bat, and more importantly, rarely score runs. Vegas has this game set at 7 total runs, and the Padres are -160 favorites, giving the Marlins an implied run total of only 3.1, which is by far the lowest on the slate. Lucchesi does have strikeout potential, and his upside is at least moderate. He proved that in his last game, striking out 11 batters in 6.2 innings, racking up just under 30 fantasy points. The potential for a shutout is available to Lucchesi tonight, and his price tag is competitive. Pairing Foltynewicz with Lucchesi and avoiding Kenta Maeda and Chris Sale opens up quite a bit of salary space for hitters.
Justin’s Reaction: Lucchesi is one of my favorite options on the slate. I only worry about him not getting the win with Caleb Smith on the other end.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Kyle Seager
We get Kyle Seager at a discount because of his injury that kept him out for the majority of the season. He has played in six games, posting a .240 average with a .280 slugging percentage and a .576 OPS. He owns one extra-base hit and one RBI in those games, as well. Seager also boasts 50% hard hit and 55% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the same time span. He gets a matchup against Tyler Skaggs, and brings a 0.026 wOBA differential against left-handed pitching from last season into this game. Seager hasn’t show rust early this season, as he has scored fantasy points in five of his six contests, including a pair of games with double-digit fantasy points. He’s expected to hit second in the Seattle Mariners’ lineup, and he’s cheap enough to safely be used in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Seager’s low price tag makes him a viable option in all leagues. Another solid recommendation here.
Jason’s Pick: Joe Panik
Joe Panik has been playing better of recent for the San Francisco Giants, and he is worth consideration in all leagues tonight. Over his last 10 games, he is hitting .227, but averaging 6.9 fantasy points per game. He has scored fantasy points in five consecutive contests, posting double-digit fantasy numbers in two of those games. He gets a great matchup against Andrew Cashner and the Baltimore Orioles in a hitter-friendly stadium with hitter-friendly weather expected. Panik enters the game with a 0.021 ISO and 0.010 wOBA differential against right-handed pitching. He is expected to leadoff for the Giants, and he is stealing 0.026 bases per game. The Giants are expected to score just under five runs tonight, and Panik could see some run production. His advanced metrics are up over the last 15 days, especially his 53% hard hit rate. Panik is on the verge of a fantasy breakout, so roster him in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: I almost recommended Panik in this slot, so I’m on board here. He’s a great salary relief option.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber could be the most mispriced player on the slate tonight. He is hitting .220 with a .585 slugging percentage and an .898 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns six extra-base hits (four home runs) and six RBIs in those games, as well. Furthermore, Schwarber has posted 48% hard hit and 45% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. While he isn’t hitting for the highest average, he has scored fantasy points in 9 of his last 10 games, while posting double-digit fantasy points in 6 of those contests. He has been a more consistent and more powerful option on the road this season, and he gets a matchup against against Miles Mikolas tonight. Schwarber enters this game with 0.003 wOBA and 0.068 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, and he’s expected to lead off for the Chicago Cubs. His price tag is low enough to easily fit him into any lineup, and he can be used in all leagues on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: This is another option that I would have recommended, if you didn’t. Schwarber is almost a must play in cash games, and he is great in tournaments, as well.
Jason’s Pick: Lorenzo Cain
With Christian Yelich producing highlight after highlight, it is easy to forget about Lorenzo Cain, but he has been playing rather well this season. Over his last 10 games, he is hitting above .250 with five extra base hits and four RBIs. He has been streaky, going for long periods of time without accumulating fantasy points, but his tournament upside is there. He is expected to hit leadoff for the Milwaukee Brewers tonight, and Chris Archer and the Pittsburgh Pirates are expected to surrender five runs. Over the last 15 days, Cain has seen increases in his average batted ball distance (13 feet), exit velocity (3 MPH), and hard hit rate (2%) compared to his 12-month average. As an added bonus, he is stealing a base in a little more than 1 of 10 games. Cain is not a solid cash game play, but in tournaments, fire away.
Justin’s Reaction: Cain hasn’t been playing that well recently, but he comes with more than enough upside to be considered in tournaments.
Be sure to follow Justin (@BalesSJustin) and Jason (@BalesTJason) on Twitter!
