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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking ninth in the MLB in runs scored, 17th in home runs, sixth in team batting average, and 10th in OPS. They will be playing in Coors tonight, where they were at their best in 2018. Through 81 games last season, Colorado posted a .287 average with a .503 slugging percentage and an .852 OPS at home. They also averaged 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Tonight, the Rockies are -259 favorites in a game set at 12 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 7.6 runs.
Colorado gets a plus matchup against Edwin Jackson, who only owns three starts this season. In those games, he has posted an 0-2 record with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.64 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.53 xFIP and a 5.15 SIERA this season. Jackson has only allowed a 35.3% fly ball rate in 2019, but he has also allowed a ridiculous 27.8% HR/FB rate. His opponents have recorded a 41.2% hard hit rate against him, while he has held them to only an 11.8% soft hit rate in 2019. Furthermore, Jackson’s strikeout rate has dipped to 12.5%, while he enters this game with an 8.2% swinging strike rate. Jackson was a relatively even pitcher against both left- and right-handed batters in 2018. He struggled on the road, though, allowing his opponents to hit for a .241 average with a .335 slugging percentage and a .300 wOBA in those games. Furthermore, he has allowed righties to hit for a .387/.968/.559 line in 2019, although the sample size is limited. Teams generally don’t feature implied totals as high as the Rockies have tonight, and they are a very clear “Chalk Stack” on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Cleveland Indians
The Cleveland Indians have struggled offensively this season, but they are finally healthy after dealing with some early injuries. Through 56 games, they rank 23rd in the MLB in runs scored, 26th in home runs and OPS, and 27th in team batting average. The Indians struggled at times on the road in 2018, recording a .250 average with a .424 slugging percentage and a .744 OPS. They also averaged 4.6 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game away from home last season. Cleveland is currently -170 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.7 runs tonight.
The Indians get a matchup against Dylan Covey, who has struggled with an 0-4 record, 5.47 ERA, and 1.41 WHIP through seven games (five starts). He also brings a 6.88 xFIP and a 6.97 SIERA into this game. Covey has also allowed 40.5% fly ball and 14.7% HR/FB rates in 2019. Surprisingly, he has held his opponents to only a 24.7% hard hit rate, although he has only posted a 17.6% soft hit rate this season. He has struggled to produce strikeouts, posting an 11.2% strikeout rate to go along with a 5.6% swinging strike rate in 2019. Covey has struggled against the majority of his opponents throughout his career. Left-handed batters have posted a .265 average with a .467 slugging percentage and a .352 wOBA against him, while righties have recorded a .279/.447/.304 line in the same categories. The Indians are averaging nearly 6.0 runs per game over the last week, and they have seemingly hit their offensive stride. They’re a stack that can be considered in all leagues, although Colorado truly needs to be used in cash games tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
San Francisco Giants
The San Francisco Giants possess one of the worst offenses in the MLB this season, ranking 28th in the league in runs scored and home runs, while also ranking 29th in the MLB in team batting average and OPS. Surprisingly, they were worse on the road last season, where they posted a .235 average with a .363 slugging percentage and a .654 OPS. The Giants also averaged only 3.5 runs and 2.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests. They will move to a hitter friendly stadium tonight, though, and they are -114 favorites in a game set at 9 runs. San Francisco owns an implied run total on 4.7 runs.
Andrew Cashner will be taking the mound for the Baltimore Orioles tonight. He has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, posting a 5-2 record with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP through 11 starts. He also owns a 4.57 xFIP and a 4.66 SIERA in those games. Cashner has allowed a 33.9% fly ball rate to go along with a 15.9% HR/FB rate this season. He has also allowed his opponents to record a 40.3% hard hit rate, while posting only a 12.4% soft hit rate in 2019. His strikeout rate is up a bit to 18.9% to go along with an increased 9.2% swinging strike rate. Cashner struggled against batters on both sides of the plate in 2018, allowing left-handed batters to post a .278 average with a .508 slugging percentage and a .361 wOBA, while righties hit for a .304/.483/.370 line in the same categories. The Giants aren’t an elite offense, but this is a great spot, and they will likely feature extremely low ownership on this slate.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Miles Mikolas
Mikolas has struggled at times this season, as he enters this game with a 4-5 record, 4.77 ERA, and a 1.17 WHIP. He also owns a 4.19 xFIP and a 4.33 SIERA on the season. He has held his opponents to a 30.8% fly ball rate, although he has allowed a 20% HR/FB rate this season. Mikolas has also allowed his opponents to hit for a 35.9% hard hit rate, while recording a 17.7% soft hit rate in 2019. His strikeout rate sits at only 17.8%, while he owns an 8.8% swinging strike rate. With that being said, his numbers are better in nearly every statistical category at home – ERA (3.15), xFIP (3.92), HR/FB (13.5), hard hit rate (32.1%), strikeout rate (21.1%). Mikolas is a -125 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of 4.3 runs tonight.
He gets a matchup against the Chicago Cubs, who rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking below average in team wOBA. Mikolas was at his best against right-handed batters last season, holding them to a .195 average with a .264 slugging percentage and a .223 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .196/.350/.251 line at home this season. Mikolas comes with quite a bit of risk tonight, but there are very few salary relief pitchers that should be considered tonight. He should strictly be used in tournaments on this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber has caught fire recently, as he’s hitting .220 with a .585 slugging percentage and an .898 OPS over his last 10 games. He also has posted six extra-base hits (four home runs) and six RBIs over that span. Schwarber has recorded 48% hard hit and 45% fly ball rates to go along with a 96 MPH exit velocity, as well. He also brings 0.003 wOBA and 0.068 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.
Schwarber gets a matchup against Miles Mikolas, who has been outlined above. He’s expected to lead off for the Chicago Cubs, which adds to his upside. While I do expect Mikolas to find success overall in this matchup, Schwarber is a player who could find success on the other side. He’s entirely too cheap for his recent form, and he makes a strong option in all leagues.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
