Pitchers
Chris Sale- I don’t really know how good I feel going into the slate knowing Chris Sale is my favorite overall option…but here we are. He has an elite matchup against the White Sox who are striking out over 27.0% of the time against southpaws to starts the season. His velocity has been up and down, but he has still managed to generate over 12.0% swinging strikes in what has now been three straight starts. He hasn’t been *as bad* as it seems, and at the end of the day this is the highest upside matchup on the board for K’s, and I’m going to probably end up stomaching the risk in cash games.
James Paxton- Paxton is the “safer” pivot off of Chris Sale, and despite the matchup with the Twins I have him tagged as viable in all formats. He boasts an elite 2.82 SIERA with 36.2% strikeouts this season and has been much more steady and consistent than the aforementioned Sale. The Twins offense has been great this season, and they are packed with righties, but they still come into tonight striking out over 23.0% of the time against left-handers.
Jerad Eickhoff- Eickhoff came up late last season and looked like the pitcher we all thought he could be, and he has followed that up with a strong start ti 2019 posting a 3.30 SIERA and 30.0% strikeouts. He has a really solid pitch mix, fastball/slider/change and uses a balanced arsenal to keep hitters off balance given his lack of blow-away velocity. He gets a watered down lineup tonight without both Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto for the Nationals, not to mention he is still affordable, especially on DraftKings where he is only $7,400. His second-most used pitch is his curve, and only two Nationals in the lineup have even remotely respectable numbers against the pitch — Matt Adams and Victor Robles (small sample alert). I will most likely lock in Eickhoff as my SP2 on DraftKings.
Tournament Pitcher Pool: Matt Boyd, Tyler Glasnow, Sonny Gray
Building Blocks
Jesus Aguilar/Ryan Braun- I wrote these fellas up earlier this week, and they are right back with another lefty on the hill tonight in Steven Matz…and guess what? They’re both still cheap! Both owned .250+ ISO’s against left-handed pitching in 2018, and Matz is surrendering over 41.0% hard-contact to right-handed batters already this year. Matz most-used pitch against righties is his sinker, with both Aguilar and Braun own xwOBA’s over .450 against.
Nolan Arenado/Trevor Story- This goes without saying, they are at home in Coors Field against a left-handed pitcher. I will 100% be prioritizing them in my optimal builds. Given the wealth of expensive pitching, I think most will end up choosing one of them to lock on, so I definitely see an edge in jamming in both as they are the most obvious plays on this slate.
J.D. Martinez- The buy-low period on J.D. Martinez is about to close, so I suggest you hop on while you can because he is extremely under-priced tonight on all sites. Nothing is wrong with him, he still has over 40.0% hard hits and fly balls this season and now he gets a date with Reynaldo Lopez, who, get this, ehhhh….I’ll save it for the stacks section. See below to see what Lopez has done this season and just why Martinez is a great bet for a homerun tonight.
Stacks (GPP)
1. Red Sox- Lopez is coming off a few big starts against the Detroit Tigers, so it’s tough for me to really decipher what is real and what’s fake. I think that, long-term, he has some potential, but for now he is still allowing 38.0% hard hits and over 56.0% fly balls this season which could be disastrous against the Boston Red Sox. With Coors Field, and the Rays in smash spots, the Red Sox could go lower owned than what the should be, which is why I’m on them in all formats.
2. Braves- The Braves are one of my favorite tournament stacks mainly because I see them going widely overlooked on a massive 13 game slate. Urena has struggled mightily this season, more so than in season’s past, and has struck out just 16.7% of batters faced this season. The Braves lineup is filled with switch-hitters + Freddie Freeman, and I think they have too much upside for the ownership they should see tonight.
Chalk Stacks: Rockies, Diamondbacks, Rays
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
