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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Chris Sale
This pick came down to Chris Sale and Tyler Glasnow, but Sale gets the nod. His numbers have been far from elite this season, but his 4.28 xFIP and 4.07 SIERA suggest he’ll see positive regression on his 6.30 ERA. He has also looked exponentially better in his last two starts, allowing four earned runs, while striking out 18 batters over 12 innings. Sale’s issues have stemmed from a 20.6% HR/FB rate, which is substantially higher than his 11.4% career average. His strikeout rate is also down to 24.1% in 2019, but there’s reason to believe that will increase as the season progression. Sale gets an elite matchup against the Chicago White Sox tonight, and they rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking well below average in team wOBA. Sale is a -184 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and he’s an option that can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I wouldn’t use Sale over Kershaw, but if you can find a way to pair them together, I have no issues with it.
Jason’s Pick: Clayton Kershaw
Clayton Kershaw returned to the mound in the middle of April, and it seems as if he is consistently getting better with each outing. Over the course of the season, he has a great 2.25 ERA, 1-0 record, and 21 strikeouts. Tonight, he gets an elite matchup against the San Diego Padres, a team that has bolstered their offense over the last couple of years, but remains a high-strikeout team in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The implied run total for the Padres is 3.4, which is the lowest of any team on tonight’s slate, tied with Chris Sale and James Paxton. Kershaw’s hard hit rate is down 14% from his 12-month average to 23%, which suggests hitters are not seeing his ball well, and his 65% strike rate proves that his command is still there. Until his next injury, roster Kershaw in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: Kershaw is probably my favorite arm tonight, and I have no problems taking the plunge on him.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Ji-Man Choi
Ji-Man Choi has been enjoying a solid season, and he has been heating up recently. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .310 with a .655 slugging percentage and a 1.115 OPS. He owns five extra-base hits (two home runs) and four RBIs in those games. Choi also owns a 42% hard hit rate with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, although that has only been three games. He gets a great matchup against Dan Straily, who has allowed a ridiculous 53.5% fly ball rate in 2019. Choi comes with more power than he has displayed early this season, and he brings 0.135 wOBA and 0.136 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. He’ll benefit from playing in the Baltimore Orioles hitter friendly stadium, as well. This article is based on DraftKings, where Choi makes a great option, but he’s absurdly priced on FanDuel, and should be considered in all leagues on that site, as well.
Jason’s Reaction: Choi makes a great option on this slate. He’s on fire and in an elite situation.
Jason’s Pick: Trevor Story
Robbie Ray may be one of the better strikeout pitchers in the league, but he enters tonight’s contest against the Colorado Rockies – a contest being held in Coors Field – with a fly ball rate over 40%. Trevor Story has been absolutely crushing the ball over the last 15 days, sporting an average batted ball distance of 257 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted ball of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate approaching 50%. He has 3 home runs in his last 10 games, and his 0.076 ISO differential against left-handed pitching is going to only help his power tonight. He is hitting second for the Rockies right now, which means he should see an added at-bat, and he comes with surprisingly decent stolen base potential. Yes, Story’s price tag is very high, but he will be a central part of an offense set at 5.6 runs.
Justin’s Reaction: If you have the money to pay up, feel free. I’m likely going to pay up at pitcher tonight, though, so I’m not sure I’ll be able to get here at shortstop.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Ian Desmond
One would assume that Ian Desmond was ice cold entering this matchup because of his ridiculous price tag in Colorado tonight. That isn’t the case, though, as he’s hitting .233 with a .467 slugging percentage and a .770 OPS over his last 10 games. He is averaging 6.7 fantasy points per game over that span. Furthermore, Desmond owns 48% hard hit and 41% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a plus matchup against Robbie Ray, who has allowed a 40.8% fly ball rate this season, while also allowing his opponents to post a 43.8% hard hit rate. That doesn’t bode well for his chances in Colorado. Desmond also brings 0.027 wOBA and 0.058 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. It’s a bit surprising that he’s under $4K, but he’s a cheaper way to get a piece of the Colorado game tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: The Rockies are an elite offense, and this has the makings of a Colorado stack tonight.
Jason’s Pick: Jackie Bradley Jr.
Jackie Bradley Jr. has been absolutely horrendous to start the 2019 MLB season. He is sporting a .149 batting average, zero home runs, and only five RBIs. The Boston Red Sox are allowing him to hit in the eight-spot right now, which has led to six walks, and Bradley also has a stolen base, so there is still a little bit of upside, even if Bradley continues to struggle at the plate. That said, the left-handed Bradley gets a great matchup against the right-handed Reynaldo Lopez, who is currently sitting on a 6.03 ERA. In his last game, he struck out 14 batters and looked very impressive, but do not let Lopez fool anyone; he is not good. He has pitched much better at home, but still allowed 15 earned runs in 21.1 innings pitched. The Red Sox are expected to score 4.7 runs tonight, and Bradley could luck his way into a few fantasy points. His 0.053 ISO and 0.065 wOBA differentials should also help his case. The struggling outfielder makes for a good tournament option at such a low price tag on DraftKings right now.
Justin’s Reaction: Bradley makes a strong pay down option, which will certainly allow you to get the Kershaw or Story type of players tonight. Strong recommendation here.
Be sure to follow Justin (@BalesSJustin) and Jason (@BalesTJason) on Twitter!
