What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “STRIKEOUT” to get 10% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies have featured plenty of ups and downs throughout the 2019 season, ranking 17th in the MLB in runs scored, 18th in home runs, 21st in team batting average, and 19th in OPS. For obvious reasons, Colorado was a significantly better offense at home in 2018. They posted a .287 average with a .503 slugging percentage and an .852 OPS over 81 home games. They also averaged 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Rockies are currently +102 underdogs in a game set at 11 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.5 runs tonight.
Colorado gets a matchup against Robbie Ray, who has struggled a bit this season. Through six starts, he owns a 1-1 record with a 4.18 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.27 xFIP and a 4.38 SIERA in 2019. Ray has allowed a ridiculous 40.8% fly ball rate this season, although he owns a relatively normal 12.9% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed a 43.8% hard hit rate in 2019, while holding his opponents to only a 15% soft hit rate. Ray’s strikeout rate is down a bit to 27.2%, while his swinging strike rate sits at 11.5%. In 2018, he struggled significantly more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .244 average with a .419 slugging percentage and a .342 wOBA. His combination of fly ball and hard hit rates will cause him to struggle in the thin air in Colorado. This is simply a terrible matchup for Ray, who has also been a slightly worse pitcher on the road this season. For what it’s worth, the other sides of this game (Arizona Diamondbacks) can also be attacked in cash games, but they did not make their way into this article.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Tampa Bay Rays
The Tampa Bay Rays have been anything but consistent this season. They rank 21st in the MLB in runs scored, 20th in home runs, 11th in team batting average, and 13th in OPS. Surprisingly, the Rays were a better offense at home last season, but they still posted a .257 average with a .408 slugging percentage and a .734 OPS on the road. They also averaged 4.3 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game away from home. Tampa Bay will benefit from moving in the Baltimore Orioles hitter friendly stadium, and they are -226 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs. They feature the highest implied run total on the slate tonight at 5.8 runs.
The Rays get arguably the best matchup on the slate against Dan Straily. He owns a 1-1 record with a 6.75 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP through five games (four starts). He has also struggled with a 7.04 xFIP and a 6.37 SIERA, suggesting his struggles will continue through his innings. Straily has also allowed an absurd 53.5% fly ball rate to go along with an 18.4% HR/FB rate. He has also struggled with his strikeout rate, as it sits at only 10.3% in 2019. His swinging strike rate is significantly better at 9.4%, but still leaves plenty to be desired. Straily struggled more against left-handed batters in 2018, allowing them to hit for a .264 average with a .460 slugging percentage and a .360 wOBA. Keep in mind, he has allowed plenty of power to right-handed batters, as well. Tampa Bay is an offense that features plenty of righties, and I’m not going to shy away from them. Everyone can be considered in this stack, essentially from the top to the bottom of the Rays lineup.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers have featured one of the better offenses in the MLB this season, ranking fifth in the MLB in runs scored, second in home runs, 16th in team batting average, and 11th in OPS. They were a better offense at home last season, posting a .247 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .753 OPS. The Brewers also averaged 4.7 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game in Milwaukee. Tonight, they are -132 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 4.6 runs.
Steven Matz will be taking the mound for the New York Mets. He enters this game with a 3-1 record, 3.68 ERA, and 1.09 WHIP through six starts. With that being said, he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any start besides his mishap against the Philadelphia Phillies. Still, he owns a 3.95 xFIP and 3.94 SIERA in 2019. Matz has held his opponents to only a 37.5% fly ball rate, but he has also allowed them to hit for a 20% HR/FB rate. Furthermore, he has allowed his opponents to record a 42.7% hard hit rate this season. His strikeout rate is up a bit to 24.2%, while his swinging strike rate is down to 8.8%. Matz has at his worst against right-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .231 average with a .438 slugging percentage and a .319 wOBA. He has allowed relatively similar numbers to left-handed batters, as well, though. The Brewers will likely go overlooked in this matchup, but they come with tremendous upside, and it’s difficult to believe Matz is a player that can continue this type of success.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Gary Sanchez
Sanchez has been a better option against left-handed pitching, but he still owns a .255 average with a .514 slugging percentage and a .259 ISO throughout his career against righties. He has also posted 53% hard hit and 61% fly ball rats with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Nolan Arenado
In 2018, Arenado posted a .420 average with an .898 slugging percentage and a .477 ISO against left-handed pitching in Colorado. He gets a matchup against Robbie Ray, who owns a 40+% fly ball rate this season. Arenado has also recorded 45% hard hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins has posted elite metrics over the last 15 days, recording 54% hard hit and 51% fly ball rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity. He has also been a reverse splits hitter, recording 0.093 wOBA and 0.187 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Furthermore, Hoskins has hit 60.6% of his career home runs in Philadelphia.
Ji-Man Choi
Choi has struggled to get the ball in the air recently, but he gets a matchup against Dan Straily, who has been a fly ball pitcher. Since returning to the team, he has posted a 42% hard hit rate with a 92 MPH exit velocity. Choi also owns 0.135 wOBA and 0.136 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Ketel Marte
Marte quietly owns 0.116 wOBA and 0.157 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He’ll be playing in Colorado tonight, which is the most hitter friendly stadium in the MLB. While Marte doesn’t generally seem like a home run threat, he owns 45% hard hit and 37% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jerad Eickhoff
Eickhoff has only thrown in three games (two starts) this season, but he has looked outstanding. He owns a 1-1 record with a 2.12 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP. He also owns a 3.39 xFIP and a 3.30 SIERA this season. Eickhoff has allowed a 41% fly ball rate, but he has yet to allow a home run. While he’ll obviously see regression in that category, his career 11.2% HR/FB isn’t a cause for concern. Eickhoff has also allowed only a 20% hard hit rate this season. He has also produced a dominant 30.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 13.1% swinging strike rate. Eickhoff is a -162 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4.0 runs tonight.
He gets a matchup against the Washington Nationals, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking fourth last in team wOBA. Eickhoff has been a significantly better option against right-handed batters throughout his career, holding them to a .216 average with a .346 slugging percentage and a .264 wOBA. He has found a bit more success at home throughout his career, as well, and this isn’t a Nationals lineup that should scare anyone off of him. Eickoff is a strong option in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Curtis Granderson
Granderson has been heating up recently, as he’s hitting .281 with a .594 slugging percentage and a .945 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns six extra-base hits (two home runs) and six RBIs over that span. Granderson has recorded 38% hard hit and 57% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity in those contests, as well. He’s a player that has been at his best against right-handed pitching, bringing 0.036 wOBA and 0.099 ISO differentials against righties into this game.
Granderson gets a matchup against Kevin Gausman, who has featured plenty of ups and downs this season. He owns a 4.80 ERA to go along with a 3.83 xFIP and a 3.83 SIERA. He has also allowed his opponents to record 43.1% fly ball and 16.1% HR/FB rates in 2019. His strikeout rate is up significantly to 27.5, while his swinging strike rate sits at 12.9%. Gausman was a reverse splits pitcher in 2018, but he still allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .246 average with a .411 slugging percentage and a .309 wOBA. Granderson is leading off for the Miami Marlins, and he makes a strong option on this slate tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
