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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Blake Snell
Blake Snell is the most obvious play on the slate tonight, and for good reason. He enters this game with a 3-4 record to go along with a 3.07 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP through 10 starts. Those numbers are backed by an elite 2.58 xFIP and a 2.81 SIERA. Snell has also held his opponents to a ridiculous 28.3% hard hit rate, while posting a 22.5% soft hit rate in 2019. Most importantly, he enters this game with an elite 36.5% strikeout rate to go along with an 18.7% swinging strike rate. He gets an elite matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Snell will be throwing in the Tampa Bay Rays’ hitter-friendly stadium, as well, where his strikeout rate increases to 38.1%, while his xFIP drops to 2.55. He’s a -231 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, and Snell is a cash game lock on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: I agree completely. Snell is the best available pitching option tonight.
Jason’s Pick: Robbie Ray
This recommendation is for tournaments only, as Robbie Ray is pitching in Coors Field tonight, a very hitter-friendly stadium. As expected, Vegas has the run total set in the double-digits, and the Rockies are expected to score about five runs. Ray, however, has the second highest strikeout prediction on the slate, and the Rockies strikeout 0.250 times per at-bat. The temperature is going to be rather cold in Colorado, which should also help keep the ball from carrying. Ray is not particularly a fly ball pitcher, and he only allows 1.11 HR/9. The Rockies are going to score, but Ray is going to strikeout batters, as well. If he can secure enough strikeouts to justify his price tag, everything works out. If the Rockies, for some reason, do not score, Ray’s upside skyrockets. This is a risky, but calculated, option for tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: I’m not a huge fan of Ray, but I completely understand the logic here. Elite leverage play.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Starlin Castro
If you’re going to play Blake Snell, you’re going to need to find value. Insert Starlin Castro. He is far from an elite player, but he owns a .244 average with a .268 slugging percentage and a .530 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted one extra-base hit with three RBIs over that span, as well. Castro also owns 46% hard hit and 29% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a difficult matchup against Madison Bumgarner, but Castro enters this game with 0.057 wOBA and 0.05 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He’s expected to hit fourth in the Miami Marlins lineup, meaning he could see a few run and RBI opportunities tonight. Keep in mind, Castro isn’t a great player, but he’s absurdly cheap and makes a great pairing with Snell in cash games.
Jason’s Reaction: This is a solid recommendation. Castro is too cheap for a four-hole hitter.
Jason’s Pick: Niko Goodrum
Niko Goodrum is still far too cheap right now. He is hitting leadoff for the Detroit Tigers, and he gets a great matchup against the Baltimore Orioles with John Means on the mound. Goodrum possesses the ability to steal bases, which just adds to his upside. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 238 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 92 MPH, a 45% fly ball rate, and a 40% hard hit rate. His recent batted ball luck indicator suggests he has been unlucky at the plate over that time span, and his numbers should start steadily increasing soon, as long as he maintains that level of production. Goodrum is a solid option in all leagues due to his low price tag at a position that tends to generate higher price tags.
Justin’s Reaction: You love going back to Goodrum, don’t you? Sharp play to help fit Snell into your lineups.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Andrew McCutchen
Andrew McCutchen has been playing extremely well recently, posting a .317 average with a .585 slugging percentage and a .977 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns seven extra-base hits (two home runs), nine RBIs, and one steal over that span, as well. Furthermore, McCutchen has recorded 48% hard hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets an elite matchup against Genesis Cabrera, who has struggled in the Triple-A this season. McCutchen will be leading off for the Philadelphia Phillies, who will feature one of the best offenses on the slate. He’s going to feature ownership, but McCutchen can safely be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: I’m going to avoid McCutchen is tournaments because his ownership should be so high. In cash games, though, this is a great recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber is another lower priced option tonight. He is leading off for the Chicago Cubs, a team that is expected to score 4.5 runs against the Houston Astros in hitter-friendly Houston. The weather in Houston is supposed to be great for this game, and the Cubs should take advantage. In the last 15 days, Schwarber has an average batted ball distance of 241 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate of 47%, and a hard hit rate of 50%. These advanced metrics suggest he is dialed in at the plate and a real home run threat. With 0.056 HR/AB, the upside with this recommendation should be obvious. He is also averaging over 10 fantasy points per game in his last 10 games, so the consistency is also there.
Justin’s Reaction: I was going to recommend Schwarber before I opted for McCutchen, so I obviously like this quite a bit. Great call.
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