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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies offense has seen mixed results through 54 games this season. They currently rank 14th in the MLB in runs scored, 23rd in home runs, 20th in team batting average, and 17th in OPS. Philadelphia was at their best at home in 2018, where they hit for a .236 average with a .411 slugging percentage and a .726 OPS. They also averaged 4.6 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game at home last season. They feature a new and improved offense in 2019, and they are -162 favorites in a game set at 10 runs. They feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.7 runs tonight.
Philadelphia gets an elite matchup against Genesis Cabrera. He will be making his MLB debut tonight, but he owns a 32-27 record with a 3.87 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP through 103 minor league games (81 starts). He struggled with a 2-3 record, 6.35 ERA, and 1.56 WHIP over nine Triple-A games (seven starts). Cabrera also struggled with a 6.35 xFIP in the Triple-A. In those games, he allowed his opponents to post 49.6% fly ball and 18.3% HR/FB rates. He also posted a 21.4% strikeout rate in those contests. Cabrera is a left-handed pitcher, meaning he’s likely to struggle more against right-handed batters at the MLB level. His lack of ability to control his fly ball rate in the minors suggests that he could struggle with that in the Majors, as well. He’s throwing in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight, and while Philadelphia has struggled at times with power in 2019, they have a few bats with elite power upside. Some may lean more towards the game in Coors tonight, but Philadelphia is likely the safest stacking option in this matchup.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking ninth in the MLB in runs scored, 13th in home runs, sixth in team batting average, and 10th in OPS. The Diamondbacks struggled on the road last season, posting a .228 average with a .397 slugging percentage and a .695 OPS. They also averaged 4.1 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game away from home in 2018. Tonight, they are playing on the road in Colorado, which is the most hitter friendly stadium in the MLB, though. They are -116 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.7 runs tonight.
The Diamondbacks get a great matchup against Jeff Hoffman tonight. He has struggled through two starts, posting an 0-1 record with a 8.10 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. He owns a 4.59 xFIP and a 4.36 SIERA in those games, as well. Furthermore, Hoffman struggled with a 5.28 xFIP through seven minor league games (six starts) before joining the Rockies this season. He has allowed 43.8% fly ball and 14.3% HR/FB rates in his two starts, which are similar to his rates in the minors this season. Surprisingly, he has held his opponents to a 30.3% hard hit rate in 2019, although he only owns a 9.1% soft hit rate. Hoffman’s strikeout rate has increased to 20.5% this season, while his swinging strike rate has dropped to 7.9%. He has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .310 average with a .544 slugging percentage and a .393 wOBA. Hoffman has also allowed his opponents to post a .303/.541/.383 line in Colorado throughout his career. Arizona should have no problems finding success in the most hitter friendly stadium in the MLB tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles have struggled offensively early this season. Through 55 games, they rank 22nd in the MLB in runs scored, 20th in home runs, 23rd in team batting average, and 25th in OPS. They were significantly better at home in 2018, where they posted a .247 average with a .407 slugging percentage and a .717 OPS. The Orioles averaged 4.2 runs and 2.8 extra-base hits per game in Baltimore last season, as well. They are -118 favorites in a game set at 10 runs tonight, and they own one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.2 runs.
Ryan Carpenter will be taking the mound for the Detroit Tigers tonight. He has struggled through three starts, posting an 0-2 record with a 9.00 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP. He also has posted a 4.71 xFIP and a 4.66 SIERA in those games. Furthermore, Carpenter has allowed 36.7% fly ball and 27.8% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed a 34.7% hard hit rate, while recording only a 10.2% soft hit rate. Carpenter has struggled with 18.5% strikeout and 8.0 swinging strike rates this season. In limited innings throughout his career, he has struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .378 average with a .676 slugging percentage and a .451 wOBA. Righties have also hit for a .314/.620/.404 line against him. Baltimore doesn’t feature an elite offense, but this is a matchup they can find success in.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Joc Pederson
Pederson continues to dominate right-handed pitching, as he enters this game with 0.175 wOBA and 0.242 ISO differentials against righties. He has also been playing extremely well recently, posting 43% hard hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Hunter Dozier
Dozier has seen elite power on the road, as he owns a .688 slugging percentage away from home this season. He also brings 45% hard hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days into this game. Furthermore, Dozier features 0.094 wOBA and 0.194 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Cody Bellinger
Bellinger has posted 5 home runs over his last 10 games. He also enters this game with 47% hard hit and 45% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. As if that isn’t though, he has posted 0.101 wOBA and 0.123 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Ronny Rodriguez
Rodriguez has found more success against left-handed pitching, as he brings 0.057 wOBA and 0.063 ISO differentials against lefties into this game. He has also caught fire recently, as he has posted 42% hard hit and fly ball rates to go along with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
J.T. Realmuto
Realmuto gets an elite matchup in an extremely hitter friendly stadium tonight. He has also been playing well recently, as he owns 47% hard hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, Realmuto has recorded a 0.021 ISO differential against left-handed pitching.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Pablo Lopez
Lopez has seen mixed results this season, posting a 3-5 record with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP through 10 starts. He has thrown better than that, though, as he owns a 3.91 xFIP and a 3.95 SIERA. Lopez has held his opponents to 29.5% fly ball and 15.9% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also held them to a 33.3% hard hit rate, while recording an 18.7% soft hit rate. Lopez enters this game with 22.8% strikeout and 10.4% swinging strike rates, as well. He has been significantly better at home, where his strikeout rate increases to 29.9%, while his xFIP drops to 3.21. Lopez is a +106 underdog in a game set at 7 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of only 3.6 runs.
He gets a plus matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who don’t strikeout at a high rate, but also rank last in team wOBA. Throughout his career, Lopez has been better against left-handed batters, holding them to a .258 average with a .388 slugging percentage and a .302 wOBA. He has also held his opponents to a .236/.350/.278 line in Miami. He’ll be throwing at home tonight, and Lopez is a player that can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Josh Reddick
Reddick has been playing well recently, posting a .278 average with a .417 slugging percentage and a .750 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns three extra-base hits (one home run), four RBIs, and one steal over that span. Reddick has also posted 36% hard hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been better splits against left-handed pitching recently, but he owns 0.034 wOBA and 0.022 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching throughout his career.
Reddick gets a matchup against Kyle Hendricks, who has struggled on the road this season. He enters this game with a 6.00 ERA and a 4.85 xFIP on the road this season. He has also struggled with 37.2% fly ball and 14.3% HR/FB rates away from home. Furthermore, Hendricks has allowed a 42.1% hard hit rate on the road in 2019. Reddick is expected to slide into the leadoff spot for the Houston Astros, and $3.6K for the leadoff hitter in one of the best offenses in the MLB is a steal, regardless of the slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
