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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
Here we are again with the Colorado Rockies as the “Chalk Stack.” They have seen plenty of ups and downs this season, while ranking 10th in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, 16th in home runs, and 12th in OPS. They were at their best in Colorado in 2018, where they posted a .287 average with a .503 slugging percentage and an .852 OPS. The Rockies also averaged 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game at home last season. Tonight, they are -135 favorites in a game set at 12 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.5 runs.
Colorado gets a matchup against Merrill Kelly, who has struggled with a 4-5 record, 4.76 ERA, and 1.55 WHIP through 10 starts. He has also struggled with a 5.21 xFIP and a 5.23 SIERA this season. Kelly has allowed respectable 37% hard hit and 12.5% HR/FB rates in 2019. With that being said, he has allowed his opponents to hit for a 40.8% hard hit rate, while recording only a 16.1% soft rate this season. Kelly has also struggled with a 16.9% strikeout rate to go along with an 8.5% swinging strike rate. Through 10 starts this season, Kelly has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .279 average with a .505 slugging percentage and a .358 wOBA. He has also allowed lefties to hit for a .287/.436/.339 line this season. Furthermore, Kelly’s ERA has ballooned from 2.64 at home to 7.66 on the road, and he’ll be throwing in the most hitter friendly stadium in the MLB tonight. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a .312/.538/.404 line on the road in 2019. The Rockies generally feature ownership when they are playing in Coors, and they’re likely to be the highest owned stack on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have featured one of the best offenses in the MLB this season, ranking third in the league in runs scored, 11th in home runs, fifth in team batting average, and seventh in OPS. The Red Sox found the most success at home in 2018, recording a .282 average with a .482 slugging percentage and an .829 OPS. They also averaged 5.8 runs and 4.5 extra-base hits per game in those contests. Boston is currently a -194 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.3 runs tonight.
The Red Sox get a matchup against Zach Plesac, who will be making his MLB debut tonight. He has thrown extremely well in the minor leagues, recording a 16-9 record with a 2.99 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP through 49 games (48 starts). With that being said, his 3.87 xFIP over three Triple-A starts leaves quite a bit to be desired, although the sample size is entirely too small. Plesac struggled with fly balls throughout his MiLB career, allowing a 44.2% fly ball rate in the Triple-A. He has held his opponents to an 8.7% HR/FB rate in those games, but that rate feels unsustainable in the MLB. He has flashed tremendous strikeout potential in the minors, while also showing strong control. Logic dictates that Plesac will likely struggle more against left-handed batters, but he could struggle in this entire matchup. The Red Sox feature one of the best offenses in the MLB at home, and there’s very little reason to believe a pitcher making his first start will find success.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Detroit Tigers
The Detroit Tigers have struggled quite a bit offensively this season. Through 52 games, they rank 29th in the MLB in runs scored and home runs, 27th in team batting average, and 28th in OPS. The Tigers struggled on the road last season, where they hit for a .234 average with a .369 slugging percentage and a .662 OPS. They also averaged only 3.7 runs and 2.7 extra-base hits per game away from home. With that being said, they’ll be playing in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight. Detroit is currently a -105 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.6 runs.
Dylan Bundy will be taking the mound for the Baltimore Orioles tonight. He has struggled through 10 starts, posting a 2-5 record with a 4.67 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He has allowed a 4.90 xFIP and a 4.52 SIERA in those games, as well. Bundy has also struggled with 43.8% fly ball and 18.8% HR/FB rates in 2019. Surprisingly, his opponents only own a 26% hard hit rate against him, but he has only posted a 16.4% soft hit rate this season. Bundy enters this game with 23.3% strikeout and 12.6% swinging strike rates. Last season, he struggled more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .319 average with a .553 slugging percentage and a .399 wOBA. He also allowed righties to hit for a .230/.493/.325 line in 2018. Detroit will likely go overlooked on a larger slate, but they come with tremendous upside in this matchup.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Jason Castro
Castro has been at his best against right-handed pitching, as he enters this game with 0.061 wOBA and 0.343 ISO differentials against righties. He has also been playing well recently, posting 57% hard hit and 47% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Hunter Dozier
Dozier has posted two home runs in his last four games. He also owns 47% hard hit and fly ball rates to go along with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Dozier is also a reverse splits hitter this game, posting 0.096 wOBA and 0.195 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Justin Smoak
Smoak has been on fire recently, recording 45% hard hit and 51% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also owns five home runs over his last five games. Smoak brings 0.124 wOBA and 0.164 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.
Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins is another reverse splits hitter, posting 0.066 wOBA and 0.119 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He has been playing well recently, recording 51% hard hit and fly ball rates to go along with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Hoskins will also benefit from playing in Philadelphia’s hitter friendly stadium.
Eduardo Escobar
Escobar has been more consistent against left-handed pitching, but he enters this game with a 0.076 ISO differential against righties. He also owns 42% hard hit and 57% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Escobar will benefit from playing in Colorado’s stadium tonight, as well.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jeff Samardzija
Samardzija has featured a few ups and downs this season, posting a 2-3 record with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP through 10 starts. He could be in line for regression, though, as he enters this game with a 5.37 xFIP and a 5.09 SIERA. Samardzija has struggled with a 49% fly ball rate, although he has held his opponents to a 13.3% HR/FB rate. He has allowed his opponents to record a 41.7% hard hit rate, while posting only an 11.5% soft hit rate. Samardzija also enters this game with 19% strikeout and 9.2% swinging strike rates in 2019. He’s a +102 underdog in a game set at 7.5 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of only 3.9 runs.
Samardzija gets a matchup against the Miami Marlins, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking seventh last in team wOBA. Samardzija was at his best against right-handed batters last season, holding them to a .248 average with a .356 slugging percentage and a .312 wOBA. He was a better option on the road last season, and he’ll be throwing in one of the most pitcher friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight. Samardzija is cheap enough to be considered in all leagues, although he’s best suited for tournaments tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Marwin Gonzalez
Gonzalez has found plenty of success recently, posting a .262 average with a .429 slugging percentage and a .755 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns five extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs over that span. Gonzalez has brings 37% hard hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has found more success against left-handed pitching recently, but throughout his career, he has been a slightly more consistent option against righties.
Gonzalez gets a plus matchup against Zach Davies, who has looked outstanding with a 2.43 ERA. With that being said, enters this game with a 4.83 xFIP and a 5.00 SIERA, suggesting he could see regression. He has also posted 36.4% fly ball and 10% HR/FB rates in 2019. Davies has also allowed a 35.1% hard hit rate, while recording only a 14% soft hit rate. He has also struggled against left-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .263 average with a .421 slugging percentage and a .337 wOBA. Gonzalez is expected to hit third in the Minnesota Twins lineup, and he can be used in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
