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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Homer Bailey
Let’s start this article off with a bang. Homer Bailey is far from a great pitcher, but he has shown flashes this season. He has also been throwing better than his 6.13 ERA suggests, as he owns a 4.52 xFIP and a 4.80 SIERA through 10 starts. Bailey’s strikeout rate is up to 21.2% this season, while he brings a 10.9% swinging strike rate into this game. He has also held his opponents to 32.1% fly ball and 15.6% HR/FB rates this season. The biggest concern with Bailey is that he has allowed a 51.1% hard hit rate thus far. With that being said, he gets an elite matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking sixth last in team wOBA. Bailey is a +104 underdog in a game set at 10 runs, which is a concern, but he doesn’t need many fantasy points to hit value at his current price tag. He makes the perfect pair with Scherzer in tournaments tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: You’re hanging out with Ben far too often. The Chicago White Sox are so bad offensively that Bailey does make some sense, but I won’t be targeting him.
Jason’s Pick: Max Scherzer
Let’s start this article off with a bore. Max Scherzer is the best pitching option on the slate today, and I apologize if that doesn’t get the reader’s juices flowing. He gets a fantastic matchup against the Miami Marlins, one of the worst teams in the league (probably, the worst). The Marlins strikeout 0.287 times per at-bat, and Vegas has this game set at 8 runs. The Washington Nationals are -275 favorites to win, which gives the Marlins an implied run total of 3.0. Scherzer has a strikeout prediction that is almost double-digits, and anything other than a 30-40 fantasy point performance would be shocking. He is expensive, but for great reason, and like Justin outlined above, there are various lower priced options that lend well toward swallowing Scherzer’s high price tag.
Justin’s Reaction: Scherzer is the easiest pitcher on this slate, which is why I offered a SP2 to pair him with. Also, I think I am hanging out with Ben far too much.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Tony Wolters
Generally, I won’t use catchers here, but Tony Wolters’ price tag is one of the most ridiculous on the slate. He has caught fire over his last 10 games, posting a .342 average with a .553 slugging percentage and a .903 OPS over that span. He owns five extra-base hits (one home runs) and nine RBIs in those games. Furthermore, Wolters brings 47% hard hit and fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a tough matchup against Zack Greinke, but he enters this game with career 0.025 wOBA and 0.029 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Greinke has also struggled on the road, where his ERA balloons to 4.04 this season. Wolters is only hitting eighth in the Colorado Rockies lineup, but he’s a cheap way to get a piece of the Rockies offense. He can safely be considered in all leagues today.
Jason’s Reaction: I agree completely with this recommendation.
Jason’s Pick: Niko Goodrum
Niko Goodrum is eligible at the OF or 1B positions, and he should hit leadoff for the Detroit Tigers today. Despite only hitting 0.029 HR/AB, Goodrum has great power splits against right-handed pitching, batting switch. His ISO differential entering tonight’s game is 0.114. He also has added upside with 0.064 stolen bases per game. Most importantly, Goodrum has a rather low price tag for his upside, which makes him a great option in lineups that are attempting to roster Max Scherzer. The Tigers are expected to score almost five runs, and getting a leadoff hitter for a a semi-high-scoring team for sub-$4.0K is a steal.
Justin’s Reaction: I have no issues with Goodrum, especially using him to roster Scherzer. Smart strategy here.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Raimel Tapia
Since I’m likely to use Homer Bailey today, I’ll have a relatively easy time getting exposure to the Colorado Rockies. Raimel Tapia has moved into the leadoff spot with Charlie Blackmon injured, and he could find himself in that position once again today. His numbers over his last 10 games are far from impressive, but he has been an elite option at home. Through 21 home games, Tapia owns a .328 average with a .657 slugging percentage and a 1.040 OPS. He also owns 12 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 13 RBIs in those games. Similarly to Tony Wolters, Tapia gets a matchup against Zack Greinke, who has struggled on the road this season. Tapia brings 0.029 wOBA and 0.024 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Regardless of his position in the lineup, Tapia is an option who can be considered in all leagues for a surprisingly low price tag today.
Jason’s Reaction: The Colorado Rockies at home are never a bad recommendation. Tapia is worth consideration in all leagues.
Jason’s Pick: Josh Reddick
Josh Reddick is basically the same kind of recommendation as Niko Goodrum. He is expected to hit leadoff for the Houston Astros, a team projected to score 4.7 runs. His price tag is sub-4.0K, and he has positive power splits against left-handed pitching. He enters tonight’s game with a 0.147 ISO differential. He is hitting 0.032 HR/AB and stealing 0.046 bases per game. His upside is similar to that of Goodrum, and luckily, both players can be rostered. Again, as previously mentioned, this is a good, high-upside recommendation for lineups that are desperate to find money for Max Scherzer.
Justin’s Reaction: I don’t think many people will go here because it’s lefty-lefty against Cole Hamels, who is a strong pitcher. I completely agree that Reddick is too cheap, though, making him a strong option, but I may have issues going here in cash games.
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