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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies are the “Chalk Stack” once again. They have featured plenty of ups and downs this season, ranking 12th in the MLB in runs scored, 17th in home runs, 10th in team batting average, and 13th in OPS. They were at their best in Colorado in 2018, where they posted a .287 average with a .503 slugging percentage and an .852 OPS. The Rockies also averaged 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game at home last season. Tonight, they are -167 favorites in a game set at 12 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.9 runs.
Colorado gets a matchup against Andrew Cashner, who has struggled this season. He brings a 4-2 record with a 4.14 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP through 10 starts into this game. He has also struggled with a 4.72 xFIP and a 4.74 SIERA. Cashner has allowed 35.7% fly ball and 15% HR/FB rates in 2019. Furthermore, he has struggled with 39.3% hard hit and 12.5% rates this season. Cashner’s strikeout rate is up to 18.6% this season, while his swinging strike rate sits at 8%. He struggled against everyone last season, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .278 average with a .508 slugging percentage and a .361 wOBA, while righties hit for a .304/.483/.370 line. Cashner also allowed his opponents to post a .312/.569/.400 line on the road in 2018. He has also been a reverse splits pitcher early this season, and his inability to slow down right-handed bats will allow Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado to find plenty of success. Add in the remainder left-handed batters for the Colorado Rockies, and they feature the top offense on the slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have found quite a bit of offensive success this season, ranking 10th in the MLB in runs scored, 11th in home runs, third in team batting average, and eighth in OPS. The Braves performed well on the road last season, where they posted a .258 average with a .430 slugging percentage and a .752 OPS. They also averaged 4.5 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game away from home in 2018. Atlanta is a -115 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 4.9 runs.
The Braves get a plus matchup against Dakota Hudson tonight. He has struggled through 10 games (nine starts), posting a 3-3 record with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.70 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.45 xFIP and a 4.72 SIERA in 2019. Hudson has held his opponents to a 22.2% fly ball rate, but he has also allowed a 25.7% HR/FB rate this season. Furthermore, he has allowed his opponents to post a 39.4% hard hit rate, while recording only a 15.6% soft hit rate. Hudson’s strikeout rate sits at only 16.4%, while he owns a 9.7% swinging strike rate in 2019. Throughout his career, he has struggled most against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .329 average with a .541 slugging percentage and a .413 wOBA. He has also allowed a .365/.368/.316 line in St. Louis throughout his career. Atlanta features an offense that typically goes overlooked, and that will likely be the case again tonight with Coors on the slate. They make a strong stacking option in a plus matchup, though.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Matt Carpenter
Carpenter homered last night, and I’m going back to the well tonight. He also brings 51% hard hit and 61% fly ball rates to go along with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days into this game. He owns 0.017 wOBA and 0.01 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, as well.
Trevor Story
Story has been better against left-handed pitching, but he posted a .277 average with a .592 slugging percentage and a .315 ISO against right-handed pitching in Coors last season. He has also caught fire recently, as he owns 44% hard hit and 55% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
J.D. Martinez
Martinez is expected to be back in the lineup, and he was playing well prior to his injury. Over the last 15 days, he owns 46% hard hit and 50% fly ball rates to go along with a 93 MPH exit velocity. He also hit for a .329 average with a .644 slugging percentage and a .315 ISO against right-handed pitching last season.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Kyle Freeland
Freeland has struggled through 10 starts this season, recording a 2-5 record with a 6.02 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.23 xFIP and a 5.00 SIERA in those games. Freeland has also struggled with 40.2% fly ball and 18.2% HR/FB rates, which are significantly higher than his career averages. The same can be said for his 43.6% hard hit rate in 2019. Freeland only owns a 19.4% strikeout rate, although he could see positive regression on that, as he enters this game with a 10.3% swinging strike rate. He’s a -167 favorite in a game set at 12 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of 5.3 runs tonight.
Freeland gets a matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking last in team wOBA. Freeland was at his best against left-handed batters last season, holding them to a .185 average with a .255 slugging percentage and a .234 wOBA. He also held his opponents to a .228/.393/.300 line at home in 2018, and while those numbers are unsustainable, it shows he can find success in Colorado. He isn’t a safe option, but there are only five games, and Freeland is entirely too cheap for his upside.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Dexter Fowler
Fowler hasn’t been a dominant option recently, as he’s only hitting .200 over his last 10 games. With that being said, he owns a .533 slugging percentage and a .948 OPS over that span. He also owns four extra-base hits (three home runs) and three RBI in those games. Folwer also owns 61% hard hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 99 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been better against left-handed pitching throughout his career, but he enters this game with 0.025 wOBA and 0.042 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Martinez gets a great matchup against Mike Soroka, who owns a 3.71 xFIP and a 3.91 SIERA this season. He has held his opponents to a 22.6% fly ball rate, while posting an elite 3.8% HR/FB rate. Soroka has also only allowed a 29.4% hard hit rate in 2019. With that being said, he’s due for regression. He has struggled more against left-handed batters throughout his short career, allowing them to hit for a .221 average with a .301 slugging percentage and a .268 wOBA. Fowler has moved into the leadoff spot in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, and he can be used in all leagues.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
