Pitchers
Blake Snell- If anyone tells you that Blake Snell is not the best play at pitcher on this slate, they are not your friend, and we should not take DFS advice from people that aren’t our friends. Snell has somehow gotten better coming off a Cy Young campaign in 2018, putting up a 2.58 SIERA with 37.8% strikeouts and an INSANE 19.2% swinging strike rate to kick off 2019. These are as elite of numbers as you can get, and he has a solid matchup tonight against the Cleveland Indians who currently rank 12th overall in strikeout rate against southpaws (24.8%) with the sixth lowest wRC+ (76). All I can hope is that his high price tag keeps some of the field off of him, because he is the first person I am building around on both sites tonight.
Chris Sale (GPP)- It’s safe to say that Chris Sale is back, as he owns a 2.86 SIERA with 35.3% strikeouts once again this season, and has ripped off 10+ strikeouts in five of his last six starts, one of which being a 17 K game and the outlier being a eight K performance against the Tampa Bay Rays. He has an extremely tough matchup on paper against the best team in the league against lefties this season — the Houston Astros, but keep in mind that Lucas Giolito hurled a complete game shutout last night against them, so they are beatable. Sale also saw them in his last start, where he struck out 10 across 5.1 innings allowing three earned runs (five walks). His upside is so much higher than that of Noah Syndergaard, or even a Jose Berrios in my opinion, and he is my number one GPP play tonight at expected low ownership.
Noah Syndergaard- Syndergaard sets up to be the chalk on DraftKings tonight priced at only $10,100 in a matchup with the Detroit Tigers. Anyone that reads my content knows I never roster Noah Syndergaard, especially as chalk, but with a lack of cheap options today, I can see locking him in as an SP2 alongside Snell, rather than an SP1, and just jamming in value bats. He does not have as much K upside as you would think against righties, with under 24.0% strikeouts against them, but he counteracts that with over 50.0% ground balls and a boatload of soft contact. The upside is in there somewhere, but keep in mind he only struck out three Marlins in his last start…a matchup just as good as this one. I can’t just project him for a huge game today (strikeout wise) which is why I have him a good bit behind Snell/Sale, but for cash games I can see pairing him with Snell on DK.
Kyle McGowin (SP2?)- I will come right out and say that I don’t like this play at $7,000 on DraftKings, especially if he is going to be popular. On FanDuel, where he is min-priced, I can see the tournament appeal, but I really don’t think I want to be going here in cash games tonight. Is his matchup with the Miami Marlins one of the best on the slate? Yes! But, McGowin is a 27 year old pitcher making just his second ever MLB start, if you are 27 and have only made one start…that generally means you are not good. He doesn’t project to have big strikeout ability, and while even bad pitchers can look good against the Marlins, I don’t want to roster a bad pitcher on a slate packed with high-upside aces.
Tournament Pool: Chris Sale, Robbie Ray, Griffin Canning
Building Blocks
Cheap 1B/2B- The theme of the building blocks today will be “savings” as it’s one of the rare days I will be trying to lock in two aces in my optimal build. There’s a wealth of value at these two positions today, and rather than pick out one I will simply highlight who I think are viable punts, and you can select who makes the most sense for your personal build. At first base, we have Steve Pearce, Kendrys Morales and the newly promoted Josh Naylor, and at second we have Ian Kinsler, Nicky Lopez and Starlin Castro if you’re feeling frisky.
Stephen Piscotty– Piscotty is simply too cheap on DraftKings tonight, and I will be forced into considering him for cash games if I’m going to spend over $20,000 on my two pitchers. He still has been great against left-handed pitching this season sporting a 176 wRC+ and a .255 ISO.
Dexter Fowler- Fowler has been moved into the leadoff spot for the Cardinals tonight, which puts him firmly in play for cash games given his price of $3,800 on DraftKings, and $3,100 on FanDuel. You will read below just why I’m attacking Mike Foltynewicz tonight, but Fowler himself has been strong against right-handed pitching this season sporting a 143 wRC+ with around 41.0% hard hits and 35.0% line drives.
Stacks
I’m abbreviating this section today, because there are so many spots to go!
1. Rockies- I think that the abundance of expensive pitching will keep their overall full stack ownership down, and they are in the best spot for me at home, against a fly ball lefty. Be sure to check the lineup, I don’t think Blackmon will play so we could get a few “value” plays as well.
2. Cardinals- Folty’s velo came back up a bit in his last start, but I still don’t think he is fully back and his numbers against righties this season are worrisome when you factor in how many of them he will see tonight. I 100% want the full stack here with the 1-5 hitters.
3. Braves- Since I included the Rockies, I don’t want to put the Twins here because I think there is a chance they end up decently owned, however I do think they are in an amazing spot. I’ve sided with the Braves because I don’t think ANYONE is going to play them, and this is some of the best hitting weather we have seen all season in St. Louis backed by a near 70 degree dew point. Again, I want the top of the lineup here, and I really think they are going to come in extremely under-owned.
Chalk Stacks: Rockies, Twins, Athletics (cheap on DK)
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
