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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Noah Syndergaard
There are a plethora of elite arms on this slate, but I’m siding ever so slightly with Noah Syndergaard. He has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, posting a 3-4 record with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP through 10 starts. He enters this game with a 3.72 xFIP and a 3.71 SIERA, though, suggesting he’ll continue to see positive regression as he throws more innings. Syndergaard’s ERA also drops to 3.67 in New York. His fly ball rate is up slightly from his career average, although it still only sits at 34.5%, while he brings a 13.1% HR/FB rate into this game. More importantly, Syndergaard has only allowed a 29.4% hard hit rate this season, while also recording a 23.9% soft hit rate. He boasts a 24.2% strikeout rate to go along with an 11.1% swinging strike rate in 2019, as well. He gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat and third last in team wOBA. Syndergaard is a -244 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, and he’s one of the safest arms on the slate for his price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: Syndergaard is a great option in cash games. Vegas loves the New York Mets tonight, and for good reason.
Jason’s Pick: Blake Snell
There are two pitchers on the board tonight that are head-and-heels above the rest in terms of strikeouts – Blake Snell and Chris Sale. Snell has a strikeout prediction of 9.1, even though the Cleveland Indians only strikeout 0.225 times per at-bat. The Houston Astros strikeout even less than the Indians, though, at 0.205 times per at-bat. The Astros are the better offense, and Vegas has them at an implied run total of 4.0 compared to the Indians 3.6. Snell is the most expensive pitching option tonight, but his upside is worth it in tournaments. He has nine or more strikeouts in three consecutive games now, and if he can stop the Indians from producing runs, he could be in line for a 35-40 fantasy point performance.
Justin’s Reaction: I’ll never say no to Blake Snell. He always makes an elite option.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Matt Carpenter
Matt Carpenter’s recent numbers don’t jump off the page, as he’s only hitting .188 with a .438 slugging percentage and a .771 OPS over his last 10 games. He does own four extra-base hits (two home runs) and five RBIs over that span, though. More importantly, he has posted 46% hard hit and 53% fly ball rates with a 97 MPH exit velocity in those contests. Carpenter gets a plus matchup against Mike Foltynewicz tonight, and he brings 0.025 wOBA and 0.027 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. Foltynewicz has also struggled with home runs, allowing 47.3% fly ball and 23.3% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 41.1% hard hit rate this season. Carpenter is expected to leadoff for the St. Louis Cardinals, and his home run metrics are strong enough to consider him with the price bump on this slate.
Jason’s Reaction: I don’t know why DraftKings has hated Carpenter all season, but again, he ends up as a great value option at the first base or third base position.
Jason’s Pick: Marcus Semien
I apologize in advance for all the Oakland Athletic’s recommendations, but this is a stack that is just too juicy to pass on tonight. If you look below, Justin outlines how horrible Wade LeBlanc has been this season, and why fantasy owners should be targeting the A’s. Semien is expected to leadoff for the A’s tonight, and his price tag is rather low. Over his last 10 games, he has not been great, hitting sub-200 with only one home run and three RBIs. However, he enters tonight’s game with a 0.046 ISO differential against left-handed pitching, and his advanced metrics are solid. In the last 15 days, his hard hit rate is 42%, up 8% from his 12-month average, while his average batted ball distance is over 200 feet with an average exit velocity of 92 MPH. Semien is worth consideration in tournaments tonight, especially considering the A’s have an implied run total of 5.2.
Justin’s Reaction: I love Semien against left-handed pitching. I’m also in on basically any player against LeBlanc tonight.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Chad Pinder
I undoubtedly want a piece of the Oakland A’s offense tonight. They get an elite matchup against Wade LeBlanc, who enters this game with a 6.11 xFIP and a 5.38 SIERA. He has also allowed 46.5% fly ball and 18.2% HR/FB rates this season. Furthermore, LeBlanc has allowed his opponents to hit for a 42.3% hard hit rate, while recording only a 7% soft hit rate in 2019. As if that isn’t enough, he’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .344 average with a .688 slugging percentage and a .450 wOBA this year. Insert Chad Pinder. Pinder hasn’t been overly dominant recently, but he does own a 39% hard hit rate to go along with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also brings 0.052 wOBA and 0.052 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. At the moment, Pinder is expected to hit third in the Oakland lineup, and he’s still under $4K. He’s consistent enough to be used in cash games, while also coming with more than enough upside to be considered in tournaments. I know this recommendation would make Ben proud today, as well.
Jason’s Reaction: It makes Jason proud, as well.
Jason’s Pick: Khris Davis
Khris Davis is currently questionable to play tonight with a left hip injury, but he is expected to take the field. Davis is hitting fourth in the Oakland Athletics batting order, and Justin just outlined all the reasons to roster the A’s against Wade LeBlanc. Davis is hitting over .300 in his last 10 games with two home runs and five RBIs. He also has five walks over that same time span. With a 0.086 HR/AB ratio, he is always a threat to go distance. Over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 238 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 97 MPH, a fly ball rate of 25%, and a hard hit rate of 45%. His price tag is above $4.0K right now, but he is still a value option, especially in the midst of an A’s stack.
Justin’s Reaction: More Oakland A’s? Count me in.
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