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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies have featured plenty of ups and downs this season, ranking 13th in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, 19th in home runs, and 15th in OPS. They were at their best in Colorado in 2018, where they posted a .287 average with a .503 slugging percentage and an .852 OPS. The Rockies also averaged 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game at home last season. Tonight, they are -157 favorites in a game set at 12 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.8 runs.
Colorado gets a matchup against John Means, who has thrown extremely well this season. He has posted a 5-4 record with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP through 11 games (7 starts). With that being said, he is in line for quite a bit of regression, as he owns a 5.08 xFIP and a 4.64 SIERA in 2019. Means has allowed a 43.7% fly ball rate, although he has held his opponents to a 10.9% HR/FB rate this season. That’s a recipe for disaster at Coors Field, though. Surprisingly, Means has only allowed a 28.7% hard hit rate, while recording a 14% soft hit rate, as well. His strikeout rate is down to 18.8% in 2019, while he owns an 11.3% swinging strike rate. Throughout his career, Means has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .248 average with a .445 slugging percentage and a .321 wOBA. He has also allowed his opponents to hit for a .277/.521/.364 line on the road throughout his young career. The Rockies are going to feature quite a bit of ownership tonight, but I’m likely to be underweight on them. They simply find themselves as the “Chalk Stack” because of their Vegas line and projected ownership tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Oakland A’s
The Oakland A’s have been a relatively average offense through 51 games this season. They rank 15th in the MLB in runs scored, ninth in home runs, 19th in team batting average, and 16th in OPS. The A’s struggled at home last season, posting a .241 average with a .412 slugging percentage and a .732 OPS through 81 games. They also averaged 4.6 runs and 3.4 extra-base hits per game at home in 2018. With that being said, the A’s are -152 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight. They feature one of the higher implied run totals on the slate at 5.3 runs.
The A’s get an elite matchup against Wade LeBlanc, who enters this game with a 2-1 record, 7.36 ERA, and 1.91 WHIP through four starts. He has also posted a 6.11 xFIP and a 5.38 SIERA in those games. LeBlanc has struggled with 46.5% fly ball and 18.2% HR/FB rates in 2019, as well. He has allowed his opponents to record a 42.3% hard hit rate, while posting only a 7% soft hit rate this season. LeBlanc’s strikeout rate is also down to 15.2%, while he has recorded an 8.4% swinging strike rate. He was a similar pitcher against left- and right-handed batters in 2018. Overall, he allowed lefties to hit for a .245 average with a .417 slugging percentage and a .300 wOBA, while righties hit for a .246/.419/.308 line in the same categories. LeBlanc has been significantly worse against right-handed batters in 2019, though, allowing them to hit for a .344/.688/.450 line. Oakland’s players come with surprisingly low price tags, and they make a great stacking option on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
New York Mets
The New York Mets have struggled at times recently after getting off to a hot start this season. Through 49 games, they rank 17th in the MLB in runs scored, 22nd in home runs, 20th in team batting average, and 19th in OPS. The Mets struggled quite a bit in New York last season, where they only posted a .215 average with a .354 slugging percentage and a .646 OPS. They also averaged only 3.4 runs and 2.4 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Mets have found more success at home this season, though, and they are -272 favorites in a game set at 7.5 runs tonight. They own an implied run total of 4.8 runs on this slate.
Gregory Soto will be taking the mound for the Detroit Tigers. He has struggled through two starts this season posting an 0-2 record with a 13.50 ERA and a 2.67 WHIP. He has struggled with a 6.32 xFIP and a 5.96 SIERA, as well. The sample size is extremely limited, but Soto has allowed 40.5% fly ball and 13.3% HR/FB rates this season. He has also allowed his opponents to record a 39.5% hard hit rate, while posting a 15.8% soft hit rate. Soto’s strikeout rate is down to 13.7% in the Majors, while he owns a low 6.3% swinging strike rate. He has allowed all of his opponents to hit for a .381 average with a .667 slugging percentage and a .440 wOBA this season. Soto simply isn’t an MLB-level pitcher, but the Tigers continue to use him as such. This is a perfect matchup for New York to find success, making them a sneaky stacking option on a large slate tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Matt Carpenter
Carpenter gets an elite matchup against Mike Foltynewicz, who has struggled with fly balls this season. Carpenter has posted 46% hard hit and 53% fly ball rates with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also enters this game with 0.025 wOBA and 0.027 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Jason Castro
Castro has seen limited at-bats against left-handed pitching, which is why he enters this game with 0.143 wOBA and 0.367 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He has also recorded 46% hard hit and 53% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Pete Alonso
Alonso has caught fire recently, posting 44% hard hit and 55% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He owns four home runs in his last seven games, as well. Alonso has also dominated left-handed pitching, posting 0.077 wOBA and 0.191 ISO differentials against lefties.
Matt Olson
Olson has struggled at times against left-handed pitching, but this is an elite matchup, and I don’t expect Wade LeBlanc to throw overly deep into this game. Olson has also been on fire recently, as he brings 57% hard hit and fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days into this game.
J.D. Martinez
Martinez has been performing well recently, posting 50% hard hit and 54% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also owns 0.038 wOBA and 0.093 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. Martinez is currently questionable, so make sure he’s in the lineup prior to using him tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
John Means
Means has been outlined above, so I’ll essentially summarize here. He has thrown extremely well this season, but is likely due for regression, as his ERA (2.68) doesn’t match his xFIP (5.08) or SIERA (4.64). With that being said, he could be in line for positive strikeout regression, as Means’ 18.8% strikeout rate doesn’t match his 11.3% swinging strike rate. The biggest concern is that he will be throwing in one of the most hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB, and he’s a +144 underdog in a game set at 12 runs.
Means gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat by a wide margin. They also rank in the bottom-five of the slate in team wOBA. Means has been at his best against left-handed batters, and he could neutralize the Colorado offense enough to find success if he can work around Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado. While I have Colorado as the “Chalk Stack” because of their expected ownership and Vegas line, Means makes a strong leverage option in tournaments. However, he shouldn’t be touched in cash games.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Jose Martinez
Martinez hasn’t been a dominant option recently, as he’s hitting .237 with a .342 slugging percentage and a .599 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits (one home run) and four RBIs in those games. Martinez also owns 50% hard hit and 28% fly ball rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. With that being said, he’s hitting .366 with a .493 slugging percentage and a .932 OPS through 25 games in St. Louis this season.
Martinez gets a great matchup against Mike Foltynewicz, who has struggled with 5.81 xFIP and a 5.36 SIERA this season. Most importantly, he has struggled with 47.3% fly ball and 23.3% HR/FB rates. He has allowed a 41.1% hard hit rate in 2019, as well. Foltynewicz was a reverse splits pitcher last season, but those splits have been more prominent in 2019. He enters this game allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .327 average with a .727 slugging percentage and a .455 wOBA this season. Martinez is expected to hit fifth in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, and he can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
