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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Max Fried
There are plenty of high-level pitchers on the slate tonight, but Max Fried may be better than most of them. He has thrown well this season, posting a 6-2 record with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. His numbers are also backed by a 3.27 xFIP and a 3.62 SIERA. Fried would also look even better if it wasn’t for his one rough start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, where he allowed four earned runs in only one inning. Excluding that game, his ERA drops to 2.20 on the season. Fried’s strikeout rate has dropped a bit this season, but still sits at 22.4%, while he owns a 10.8% swinging strike rate. He gets an elite matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking last in team wOBA. Fried is a -156 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, and he is an extremely easy pitcher to fit into your lineups for only $8.5K tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: This is the perfect recommendation for a Gerrit Cole pairing tonight. I love it.
Jason’s Pick: Gerrit Cole
Gerrit Cole is extremely expensive tonight, but he is well worth it against the struggling Chicago White Sox. The White Sox strikeout 0.255 times per at-bat, and Cole has the highest strikeout prediction of any pitcher on the slate tonight. His 12.4 K/9 doesn’t hurt. In his last 10 games, he is averaging over 25 fantasy points per game, so Cole remains one of the safest options for cash games. The Houston Astros are -330 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving the White Sox an implied run total of 3.0. Fantasy owners don’t even need to go look at advanced metrics to understand that Cole is an elite option tonight in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: If you can afford Cole, use him. He’s the top option on this slate, and I’m not sure it’s even that close.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Dawel Lugo
Dawel Lugo makes for an interesting option, as he has only played in four games this season. He’s only hitting .143 with a .357 slugging percentage and a .607 OPS, but he has scored fantasy points in each of those games, including an 18 fantasy point performance in his first start of the season. He could also be in line for a breakout, as he has posted 45% hard hit and 54% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Lugo gets a plus matchup against Jose Urena, who has thrown surprisingly well on the road this season, but I don’t expect that success to continue. Lugo is currently expected to hit second in the Detroit Tigers lineup, and he’s another sub-$4K infielder that will allow you to fit Gerrit Cole into your lineups tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Gerrit Cole is going to be so proud of these recommendations. His $12.0K price tag is actually looking easier and easier to swallow.
Jason’s Pick: Kendrys Morales
Has Kendrys Morales been good of recent? No. Is Kendrys Morales a great option at the first base position tonight on DraftKings? Yes. The New York Yankees have an implied run total of 6.5 against the Baltimore Orioles, which is, unsurprisingly, the highest of any team stepping foot on the baseball diamond tonight. Morales is expected to hit fifth in the batting order, which means even a lazy single could be nearing double-digit fantasy numbers. He enters tonight’s game with 0.083 ISO and 0.094 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching, and he has home run potential. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 203 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, and a hard hit rate of 45%. There is plenty of upside here, and his price tag is far too low at $3.5K.
Justin’s Reaction: For his price tag, it doesn’t get much better than Morales tonight. Great recommendation.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: J.D. Martinez
Martinez is only hitting .263 over his last 10 games, but he also owns a .684 slugging percentage and a 1.067 OPS over that span. In other words, he has found his power, as he has posted 6 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 11 RBIs in those games. Martinez has also posted 45% hard hit and 58% fly ball rates to go along with a 93 MPH exit velocity over that span. He has been at his best against left-handed pitching, but he still posted a .329 average with a .644 slugging percentage and a .315 ISO against right-handed pitching last season. He also gets a plus matchup against Aaron Sanchez in a hitter friendly stadium. Martinez is currently questionable, but if he’s in the lineup, he can safely be used in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Look out for that injury alert, but if it never comes, and the salary is available, Martinez makes for an elite, high-upside option. Wow, that was a lot of commas.
Jason’s Pick: Andrew Benintendi
Andrew Benintendi is slightly undervalued on DraftKings right now, making him a good, high-upside option in tournaments. The Boston Red Sox have an implied run total of 5.3 tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays, and Benintendi is expected to leadoff the batting order. He enters tonight’s game with 0.028 ISO and 0.041 wOBA differentials against right-handed pitching, and over his last 10 games, he has 2 home runs. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 252 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 93 MPH, a fly ball rate of exactly 50%, and a hard hit rate just under 40%. His recent batted ball luck indicator suggests he has been unlucky over at time span, and Benintendi should start to turn his mid-200 batting average around soon. Roster him while he is still cheap-ish.
Justin’s Reaction: Benintendi has been one of very few options for Boston that has found more success on the road. I love him in this matchup, and feel he can be used in all leagues.
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