What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “STRIKEOUT” to get 10% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have dealt with plenty of injuries early this season, but they have still found tremendous offensive success. Through 47 games, they rank seventh in the MLB in runs scored and home runs, eighth in team batting average, and ninth in OPS. New York was at their best at home last season, but still posted a .238 average with a .430 slugging percentage and a .744 OPS on the road. They also averaged 4.9 runs and 3.5 runs per game away from home in 2018. Tonight, they are -327 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.6 runs.
New York gets a matchup against Dan Straily, who is one of the worst starting pitchers in the MLB. Through eight games (seven starts), he owns a 1-3 record with an 8.51 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP. He also enters this game with a 7.23 xFIP and a 6.41 SIERA. Straily has also allowed a ridiculous 51.7% fly ball rate to go along with a 16.4% HR/FB rate this season. Surprisingly, he has only allowed a 36.4% hard hit rate, although he also only owns an 18.6% soft hit rate in 2019. Straily has struggled with strikeouts, as well, as he brings 10.7% strikeout and 8% swinging strike rates into this game. Straily was at his worst against left-handed batters in 2018, as he allowed them to hit for a .264 average with a .460 slugging percentage and a .360 wOBA. That has reversed this season, though, as he’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .394/.732/.478 line in 2019. He’s also allowing his opponents to hit for a .388/.847/.523 line in Baltimore this season. The Yankees are the safest stack on the slate tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros have featured an elite offense in 2019, ranking fourth in the MLB in runs scored, third in home runs, and first in team batting average and OPS. They were better on the road in 2018, but still were able to hit for a .248 average with a .403 slugging percentage and a .730 OPS in Houston last season. The Astros also averaged 4.6 runs and 2.7 extra-base hits per game at home in 2018. That hasn’t been the case this season, though, as they have been elite at home thus far. Houston is currently a -326 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.6 runs tonight.
The Astros get a plus matchup against Ivan Nova, who has struggled with a 2-4 record, 7.42 ERA, and 1.80 WHIP through nine starts. He also brings a 4.79 xFIP and a 5.06 SIERA into this game. Nova has held his opponents to a 29.8% fly ball rate this season, but he has also struggled with a 20% HR/FB rate. Surprisingly, Nova has allowed a 35.3% hard hit rate to go along with a 23.5% soft hit rate this season. I expect regression on both of these rates, as well. He also only brings 14.6% strikeout and 9.4% swinging strike rates into this game. Nova struggled against left-handed batters in 2018, allowing them to hit for a .288 average with a .503 slugging percentage and a .353 wOBA. He also struggled more on the road last season, where his opponents were able to post a .286/.522/.365 line against him. Houston should have no problems finding success in this game, and they could take their spot back as the best offense in the MLB after tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies have seen mixed results early this season, ranking 14th in the MLB in runs scored, 23rd in home runs, 21st in team batting average, and 17th in OPS through 48 games. The Phillies struggled a bit on the road in 2018, where they hit for a .232 average with a .375 slugging percentage and a .688 OPS. They averaged 3.8 runs and 2.7 extra-base hits per game away from home in 2018. They have somewhat of a new offense in 2019, although they are +145 underdogs in a game set at 10.5 runs. They own an implied run total of 4.7 runs tonight.
Cole Hamels will be taking the mound for the Chicago Cubs tonight. He has looked outstanding this season with a 4-0 record, 3.13 ERA, and 1.15 WHIP through nine games. He also owns a 3.79 xFIP and a 4.02 SIERA this season. Hamels’ fly ball rate has dropped to 16.3%, while his HR/FB rate has increased to 16.3% in 2019. He has also allowed a 36% hard hit rate, while recording only a 14.7% soft hit rate this season. Hamels’ strikeout rate also sits at 23.8%, while he owns a 10.5% swinging strike rate. He was worse against right-handed batters in 2018, allowing them to hit for a .247 average with a .443 slugging percentage and a .330 wOBA. He also allowed his opponents to post a .259/.459/.339 line in Chicago last season. Most importantly, the wind is blowing out to left field at 13 MPH tonight, giving even more of an advantage to right-handed batters. Philadelphia is likely to go overlooked because of the matchup, but their Vegas line suggests they are a sneaky stack tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Joc Pederson
Pederson is playing in a pitcher friendly stadium tonight, but he enters this game with 0.165 wOBA and 0.242 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He has also been playing well recently, posting 47% hard hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Albert Pujols
Pujols has caught fire over his last 10 games, recording 51% hard hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over that span. He also owns three home runs in those contests. Furthermore, Pujols has posted 0.008 wOBA and 0.096 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching.
Eddie Rosario
Rosario gets a plus matchup against Matt Harvey, and he bring 43% hard hit and 37% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days into this game. He has also been at his best against right-handed pitching, posting 0.013 wOBA and 0.084 ISO differentials against righties.
Gary Sanchez
Sanchez has posted home runs in back-to-back games. He’ll benefit from playing against a fly ball pitcher in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB once again tonight. He also brings 44% hard hit and 62% fly ball rates to go along with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days into this game.
Trevor Story
Story has been better against left-handed pitching, but his splits against righties haven’t been anything major this season. He has been on fire recently, as he enters this game with 51% hard hit and 56% fly ball rates to go along with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also homered in back-to-back games.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
CC Sabathia
Sabathia has quietly played well through seven games, posting a 2-1 record with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. He may have been a bit lucky, though, as he owns a 5.47 xFIP and a 5.22 SIERA, suggesting he’ll see some regression. He has struggled a bit with 47.2% fly ball and 17.6% HR/FB rates this season, as that has been one of his only flaws. He has also allowed a 46.4% hard hit rate, while recording a ridiculous 25.5% soft hit rate. Sabathia’s strikeout rate sits at only 17.8%, while he owns a 9.1% swinging strike rate, as well. Tonight, he’s a -235 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 4.1 runs.
Sabathia gets a matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who strikeout at an average rate on this slate, but also rank in the bottom-six of the slate in team wOBA. He dominated left-handed batters in 2018, holding them to a .180 average with a .290 slugging percentage and a .297 wOBA. That has also been the case this season. While Baltimore does come with some upside in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB, Sabathia doesn’t necessarily need a shutout to hit value for his current price tag. He’s a strong option tonight, but he may be best suited for tournaments.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Justin Smoak
Smoak has been ice cold recently, as he’s hitting only .107 with a .214 slugging percentage and a .556 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns one home run and two RBIs over that span. With that being said, Smoak has posted 50% hard hit and 39% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, suggesting he’s playing better than his numbers display. He has also been at his best against right-handed pitching, as he enters this game with 0.096 wOBA and 0.127 ISO differentials against righties.
Smoak gets a plus matchup against Rick Porcello, who has surprisingly only allowed a 30.2% hard hit rate this season. Still, he has allowed a 43% fly ball rate to go along with a 13.2% HR/FB rate. Porcello has also allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .289 average with a .482 slugging percentage and a .372 wOBA this season. Smoak is expected to hit third in the Toronto Blue Jays lineup, and he makes a strong salary relief option in tournaments.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
