What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “STRIKEOUT” to get 10% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers will make the “Chalk Stack” once again. They have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking third in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, sixth in home runs, and fourth in team batting average.. They will be playing at home, where they were at their best last season. In 2018, Texas hit for a .256 average with a .438 slugging percentage and a .778 OPS at home. They also averaged 5.3 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Rangers are currently -127 favorites in a game set at 11.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.1 runs.
Texas gets an elite matchup against Tommy Milone tonight. Through nine games (eight starts) in the Triple-A, he posted a 4-2 record with a 3.83 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He also posted a 5.65 xFIP in those games, suggesting he’s due for regression, even against lesser competition. Milone also allowed 44.4% fly ball and 10.4% HR/FB rates in the minors this season. In his last season in the MLB, he struggled with a 37.6% hard hit rate to go along with an 18.3% soft hit rate. His strikeout rate was also at 20.4% in the Triple-A, but that is likely to drop a bit in the Majors. Throughout his career, he has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .282 average with a .464 slugging percentage and a .338 wOBA. He has also allowed lefties to hit for a .256/.422/.316 line in his career. Texas should find plenty of success against a pitcher, who should no longer be in the MLB, especially in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the league. They’re an elite stack tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
New York Yankees
Here we have the New York Yankees for the second consecutive days. They have dealt with a plethora of injuries this season, but they have still found plenty of offensive success. Through 46 games, they rank 11th in the MLB in runs scored, seventh in home runs, ninth in team batting average, and 10th in OPS. The Yankees struggled on the road at times last season, posting a .238 average with a .430 slugging percentage and a .744 OPS. They also averaged 4.9 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those games. They are -243 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, though, and they own an implied run total of 5.9 runs.
The Yankees get a matchup against David Hess, who has struggled through nine games (eight starts) this season. He owns a 1-5 record with a 5.58 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP in those games. He has also struggled with a 5.70 xFIP and a 5.16 SIERA in those games. Hess has also allowed 55.6% fly ball and 20.3% HR/FB rates this season, while allowing 3+ home runs in three games. He has also allowed a 37.3% hard hit rate, while struggling with a 16.7% soft hit rate. Hess also brings 19.1% strikeout and 7.8% swinging strike rates into this game. Throughout his career, he’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .264 average with a .524 slugging percentage and a .361 wOBA. He has also allowed lefties to hit for a .248/.492/.342 line in his career. New York features an elite offense, and they should find plenty of success in this game.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners feature a high upside offense, who has looked outstanding this season. They lead the MLB in runs scored and home runs, while ranking 17th in the league in team batting average and sixth in OPS. Seattle found more success away from home last season, where they hit for a .265 average with a .423 slugging percentage and a .749 OPS. They also averaged 4.7 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game in 2018. They are +117 underdogs, which may cause them to go overlooked, but the game is set at 11.5 runs. They owns an implied run total of 5.5 runs tonight.
Lance Lynn will be taking the mound for the Texas Rangers tonight. He has struggled through nine games, posting a 5-3 record with a 4.94 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP. He also owns a 4.47 xFIP and a 4.48 SIERA this season. Lynn has held his opponents to 36% fly ball and 10.2% HR/FB rates in 2019. With that being said, he has allowed a 41.1% hard hit rate to go along with a 16.1% soft hit rate. Lynn also enters this game with 20.6% strikeout and 9.1% swinging strike rates. He was at his worst against left-handed batters in 2018, allowing lefties to hit for a .299 average with a .443 slugging percentage and a .366 wOBA. He has struggled more against right-handed batters this season, although his innings are a bit more limited than 2018. Texas will likely feature the majority of the ownership in this game, meaning Seattle could go overlooked. They certainly won’t be the lowest owned stack on the slate, but most should be underweight to them tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Joc Pederson
Pederson has been ice cold recently, but he owns four home runs over his last seven games. He has also posted 45% hard hit and 54% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also owns 0.176 wOBA and 0.253 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Ryan O’Hearn
O’Hearn has been at his best against right-handed pitching, as he brings 0.199 wOBA and 0.181 ISO differentials against righties into this game. He has also caught fire recently, as he has posted 47% hard hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Edwin Encarnacion
Encarnacion has recorded 34% hard hit and 56% fly ball rates with a 90 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also posted 0.016 wOBA and 0.094 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He’s a player that will benefit from playing in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB, as well.
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber is leading off for the Chicago Cubs, and he enters this game with a 0.09 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. He has also been playing well recently, as he owns 41% hard hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. The only downfall for Schwarber is the wind.
Gary Sanchez
Sanchez gets an elite matchup against a fly ball pitcher in an extremely hitter friendly stadium tonight. He brings 40% hard hit and 62% fly ball rates to go along with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days into this game. Sanchez has also hit two home runs over his last five games.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jose Quintana
Quintana has featured plenty of ups and downs early this season, posting a 4-3 record with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP through nine games (eight starts). His ERA also drops to 2.36 at in Chicago. Furthermore, Quintana brings a 3.55 xFIP and a 3.88 SIERA into this game. He has held his opponents to a 28.4% fly ball rate, although he has allowed a 16.7% HR/FB rate. Quintana has also held his opponents to a 39.3% hard hit rate, while posting a 16% soft hit rate. He has also recorded 23.2% strikeout and 10.3% swinging strike rates in 2019. Quintana is a -132 favorite in a game set at 7 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total fo 3.3 runs tonight.
He gets a matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking as a below average team in team wOBA. Quintana was at his best against left-handed batters last season, holding them to a .248 average with a .386 slugging percentage and a .303 wOBA. He has also yet to allow a home run to a left-handed batter in 2019. The wind is swirling in Chicago tonight, and that will help Quintana, as well. He’s a player that can be considered in all leagues for a low price tag tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Kendrys Morales
Morales has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, and he’s hitting .216 with a .297 slugging percentage and a .623 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns one home run and five RBIs over that span. He has also posted a 45% hard hit rate with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Morales has been at his best against right-handed pitching, as well, as he enters this game with 0.094 wOBA and 0.083 ISO differentials against righties.
Morales gets a matchup against David Hess, who has struggled with fly balls and has been outlined above. He’s expected to hit fifth in the New York Yankees lineup, which should find plenty of success tonight. Morales can be considered in all leagues because of his potential opportunities tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
