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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Patrick Corbin
Patrick Corbin has been heating up recently, posting 31 and 39 fantasy points in his last two starts. One of those were against the New York Mets, who he will be throwing against tonight. Overall, Corbin has allowed 6 earned runs with 24 strikeouts over 20 innings against New York this season. On the season, he has posted a 3.56 xFIP and a 3.52 SIERA. He has also held his opponents to a 34.7% hard hit rate, and the Mets are a team that has struggled offensively at times this season. Most importantly, Corbin has posted 29.2% strikeout and 12.8% swinging strike rates through nine starts. He has thrown 100+ pitches in six of his last seven starts, and he should be able to pitch deep into this game, as well. Corbin makes a strong option in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Agreed on all fronts here. The pitching options are dull tonight, but Corbin is worth consideration in all leagues.
Jason’s Pick: Yu Darvish
The pitching options for tonight’s slate are rather weak, but Yu Darvish is worth consideration in tournaments. The Philadelphia Phillies are not one of the worst teams in the league regarding strikeouts per at-bat, but Darvish still sports the second highest strikeout prediction of any pitcher taking the mound tonight. The Chicago Cubs are -135 favorites against the Phillies in a game set at 8.5 total runs, giving the Phillies an implied run total of 4.0. The weather in Chicago is going to be very pitcher-friendly, as it is not expected to top 50 degrees, and the wind is blowing in. In his last two games, Darvish has surrendered a hard hit rate under 10%. He has great upside for his price tag, and without many other solid pitching options, he can even be considered in cash games, if necessary.
Justin’s Reaction: Darvish makes a strong option on this slate. He’s one of my top pitchers.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Jason Castro
Jason Castro comes with a surprisingly low price tag for how well he has been playing recently. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .273 average with an .818 slugging percentage and a 1.170 OPS. He has also recorded 8 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 13 RBIs in those games. Overall, he has scored double-digit fantasy points in six of his last nine games. As if that isn’t enough, he owns 62% hard hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a plus matchup against Felix Pena, who is expected to play the role of long reliever in this game. Castro has recorded 0.168 wOBA and 0.415 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, but he only owns seven at-bats against left-handed pitching this season. Castro hits late in the Minnesota Twins’ lineup, but he can be considered in all leagues for his price tag tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: There is no doubting Castro’s upside tonight, and the catcher position is generally a punt position in cash games, anyway.
Jason’s Pick: Albert Pujols
Albert Pujols makes for an interesting option in tournaments due to his lower price tag at a position that tends to generate rather high price tags. He is sub-$4K with first base eligibility. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .250 with three home runs, six RBIs, and a walk. He is hitting slightly better at home, and the Los Angeles Angels are expected to score 4.6 runs tonight. Pujols is expected to hit fifth, which means he could see ample RBI opportunities. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance over 230 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate exactly at 50%. The aging veteran still has plenty of home run potential, and he can be rostered until his price tag starts to come up.
Justin’s Reaction: I also like Pujols as a cheap option at first base.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Willie Calhoun
I’m specifically writing up Willie Calhoun, but this recommendation goes for all of the Texas Rangers’ outfielders. Calhoun has only played in five games this season, but he has posted a .476 average with an .810 slugging percentage and a 1.286 OPS in those games. He also owns three extra-base hits (two home runs) and seven RBIs over that span. Furthermore, he has recorded a 57% hard hit rate with a 100 MPH exit velocity in those contests. He gets an elite matchup against Mike Leake, and will be hitting second in one of the best offenses on the slate. Calhoun also brings 0.15 wOBA and 0.117 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. He, along with the other Rangers outfielders, will not come cheap, but all of them can be considered in all leagues.
Jason’s Reaction: You can’t just steal all the Texas Rangers’ outfielders. I’m still writing up Shin-Soo Choo. Do something about it.
Jason’s Pick: Shin-Soo Choo
Shin-Soo Choo is being undervalued again on DraftKings. His price tag is sub-$5K, he is hitting leadoff for the Texas Rangers in a game set at 10.5 total runs via Vegas, and he enters tonight’s game with positive power splits. His ISO differential is 0.147 against right-handed pitching. As an added bonus, he is stealing slightly over 0.04 bases per game. It will be over 80 degrees in Texas tonight, and this is a great game to target for run production. In the last 15 days, Choo has an average batted ball distance of 229 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 95 MPH, a fly ball rate over 30%, and a hard hit rate of 45%. In his last 10 games, he is hitting under .200, but still producing just under 10 fantasy points per game. The upside is nearly unlimited here.
Justin’s Reaction: It’s a little weak to write up Choo after I said all of Texas is useable, but you aren’t wrong. Get him in your lineups.
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