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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking fourth in the MLB in runs scored, sixth in home runs and team batting average, and third in OPS. They will be playing at home, where they were at their best last season. In 2018, Texas hit for a .256 average with a .438 slugging percentage and a .778 OPS at home. They also averaged 5.3 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game in those contests. The Rangers are currently -145 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.8 runs.
Texas gets a plus matchup against Mike Leake, who has struggled this season. He enters this game with a 3-4 record, 4.00 ERA, and 1.35 WHIP through nine starts. He has also posted a 4.53 xFIP and a 4.43 SIERA this season. Leake has also allowed his opponents to record a 36.9% fly ball rate to go along with a 16.7% HR/FB rate. He has also struggled with 40.6% hard hit and 14.4% soft hit rates in 2019. Leake enters this game with a 17.6% strikeout rate, while his swinging strike rate sits at 8.4%. He struggled against everyone last season. Leake allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .274 average with a .473 slugging percentage and a .334 wOBA, while lefties were able to record a .288/.415/.317 line against him. He also allowed his opponents to hit for a .274/.454/.325 line when throwing on the road in 2018. The only major concern in this stack is the weather, as the wind is blowing in around 20 MPH. The Vegas line suggests that the wind direction could change, though, and I’m willing to take the chance on Texas against Leake.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have dealt with a plethora of injuries this season, but they have still found plenty of offensive success. Through 45 games, they rank 15th in the MLB in runs scored, eighth in home runs, 12th in team batting average, and ninth in OPS. The Yankees struggled on the road at times last season, posting a .238 average with a .430 slugging percentage and a .744 OPS. They also averaged 4.9 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game in those games. They are -195 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, though, and they own an implied run total of 5.6 runs.
The Yankees get a matchup against Andrew Cashner, who has posted a 4-2 record with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP through nine starts. He also owns a 4.61 xFIP and a 4.62 SIERA this season. Cashner has held his opponents to a 35.6% fly ball rate with a 15.1% HR/FB rate in 2019. He has also allowed his opponents to post a 40.9% hard hit rate, while recording only a 13.4% soft hit rate. Cashner’s strikeout rate is up to 19.3% to go along with a 9.2% swinging strike rate. He was at his worst against right-handed batters in 2018, allowing them to hit for a .304 average with a .483 slugging percentage and a .370 wOBA. With that being said, he also allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .278/.508/.361 line last season. New York features an elite offense, who should find plenty of success in a hitter friendly stadium. They can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Jason Castro
Castro has caught fire recently, posting five home runs over his last nine games. He has also posted 62% hard hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, he owns 0.168 wOBA and 0.415 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, although he only owns a few at-bats against lefties this season.
Michael Brantley
Brantley has been at his best against right-handed pitching, posting 0.08 wOBA and 0.124 ISO differentials against righties. He has also been on fire recently, recording 48% hard hit and 51% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Brantley has also flashed significantly better power at home this season.
Eduardo Escobar
Escobar owns seven extra-base hits (three home runs) over his last 10 games. He also enters this game with 43% hard hit and 58% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Escobar also brings a 0.099 ISO differential against right-handed pitching into this game.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
J.A. Happ
Happ has seen mixed results through nine starts this season, posting a 3-3 record with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. His ERA drops to 1.96 on the road, though. Overall, he brings a 4.82 xFIP and a 4.60 SIERA into this game. Happ has struggled with the long ball, allowing his opponents to record 41.9% fly ball and 17.7% HR/FB rates in 2019. With that being said, they only own a 38.3% hard hit rate to go along with a 20.8% soft hit rate this season. His strikeout rate has dropped 18.5% on the season, although his swinging strike rate still sits at 9.9%. He’s a -180 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4.1 runs.
Happ gets a matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who rank as a slightly above average team in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking third last on the slate in team wOBA. Last season, Happ was at his best against left-handed batters. He has held them to a .171 average with a .248 slugging percentage and a .222 wOBA. Furthermore, his opponents only owned a .204/.322/.264 line on the road in 2018. Happ isn’t the safest option on the slate, but he comes with quite a bit of upside. This is an odd slate, and he can be used as a SP2 in cash games, but he’s best suited for tournaments tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber’s numbers don’t pop off the page, as he’s only hitting .194 with a .387 slugging percentage and a .773 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two home runs and five RBIs over that span. With that being said, he has scored fantasy points in 8 of his last 10 games, including 3 games with double-digit fantasy points. Schwarber also posted 42% hard hit and fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He enters this game with 0.093 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Schwarber gets a matchup against Jake Arrieta, who has struggled at times this season. He has only allowed his opponents to hit for a 30.2% fly ball rate, while also allowing a 16.3% HR/FB rate. Arrieta has also allowed a 36.2% hard hit rate in 2019. Schwarber is expected to lead off for the Chicago Cubs, and he has been a safe option, even while struggling. He can be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
