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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Arizona Diamondbacks have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking 10th in the MLB in runs scored, ninth in home runs, fifth in team batting average, and sixth in OPS. Arizona was at their best at home in 2018, where they were able to post a .242 average with a .398 slugging percentage and a .719 OPS. They also averaged 4.4 runs and 2.8 extra-base hits per game in those contests last season. Tonight, the Diamondbacks are -166 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.1 runs.
Arizona gets a great matchup against Nick Kingham, who has struggled with a 1-0 record, 5.94 ERA, and 1.50 WHIP through nine games (one starts). He has also posted a 4.69 xFIP and a 4.37 SIERA this season. Kingham has allowed a 41.3% fly ball rate in 2019, although he has held his opponents to a 10.5% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed a 37% hard hit rate, while recording only a 19.6% soft hit rate. His strikeout rate is up to 24.7% in 2019, although his swinging strike rate sits at 10.3%, which is nearly identical to his career average. Throughout his young career, Kingham has struggled significantly more against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .295 average with a .601 slugging percentage and a .408 wOBA. He also isn’t likely to pitch deep into this game, and the Pittsburgh Pirates rank 21st in the MLB in bullpen ERA. Arizona should find plenty of success in this game, and they could be the highest owned stack on the slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros have featured arguably the best offense in the MLB this season. Through 41 games, they rank third in the league in runs scored, second in home runs, and first in team batting average and OPS. The Astros struggled at times in Houston last season, but they still were able to post a .248 average with a .403 slugging percentage and a .730 OSP at home. They also averaged 4.6 runs and 2.7 extra-base hits per game at home last season. They have been significantly better in Houston this season, though, and they are -153 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight. They feature an implied run total of 4.8 runs in this game.
The Astros get a tough matchup against Matthew Boyd, who has looked outstanding this season. Through eight starts, he owns a 4-2 record with a 2.86 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. He has also posted a 3.38 xFIP and a 3.10 SIERA in those games. Boyd has also struggled with a 42.9% fly ball rate, although he has held his opponents to a 5.9% HR/FB rate in 2019. He has held his opponents to a 36.1% hard hit rate, while posting a strong 21.3% soft hit rate. Boyd’s strikeout rate has ballooned to 31.3% this season, while his swinging strike rate has increased to 14.5%. Last season he struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .232 average with a .414 slugging percentage and a .312 wOBA. Houston is a team that features a plethora of elite right-handed batters. Even in a difficult matchup, they should find plenty of success. They could go a bit overlooked [compared to their usual percentage] because of this matchup, but they can safely be considered in all leagues on this slate.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Eduardo Escobar
Escobar has been playing well recently, as he owns 39% hard hit and 51% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also been a more powerful option against right-handed pitching, as he enters this game with 0.1 ISO differentials against righties.
Alex Bregman
Bregman has been playing at another level recently, posting 7 home runs over his last 10 games. He has also recorded 56% hard hit and fly ball rates to go along with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. In 2018, he hit .315 with a .567 slugging percentage and a .253 ISO against left-handed pitching.
George Springer
Springer is another Houston Astro who has hit left-handed pitching well, as he posted a .285 average with a .475 slugging percentage and a .190 ISO against lefties last season. He has also posted 47% hard hit and 32% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, Springer owns six home runs over his last nine games.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Yusei Kikuchi
Kikuchi has featured plenty of ups and downs early in his MLB career, but he enters this game with a 2-1 record, 3.54 ERA, and 1.06 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.00 xFIP and a 4.19 SIERA through nine starts. He has also held his opponents to 33.6% fly ball and 10.4% HR/FB rates in his first MLB season, as well. Furthermore, his opponents have only posted a 31.9% hard hit rate against him, while recording a 20.8% soft hit rate. Kikuchi’s strikeout rate only sits at 19.8%, while he has also posted an 8.8% swinging strike rate. He’s currently a -117 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4.4 runs.
Kikuchi gets a matchup against the Oakland A’s, who strikeout at a slightly below average rate, while also posting the third highest team wOBA on the slate. Kikuchi has been a better option against left-handed batters, holding them to a .216 average with a .324 slugging percentage and a .227 wOBA this season. He has also held his opponents to a .196/.391/.272 line at home this season. Kikuchi took some time to get adjusted to the MLB, but he has scored 22.9 and 31.4 fantasy points in his last two games, and he still comes with an extremely low price tag. It’s a bit of a smaller slate, and he’s a strong option in tournaments tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Tyler White
I recommended Yuli Gurriel in the Battle of the Bales, which leaves me to recommend White here. He hasn’t been playing at that high of a level recently, posting a .207 average with a .276 slugging percentage and a .526 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two extra-base hits and three RBIs over that span, as well. With that being said, he has posted 50% hard hit and 35% fly ball rates with a 91 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also enters this game with a 0.042 wOBA against left-handed pitching.
White gets a matchup against Matthew Boyd, who has been outlined above. White is expected to hit sixth in the Houston Astros lineup, which is projected to be one of the best offenses on the slate. He’s still absurdly cheap for the situation he’s in, but he’s likely best suited for tournaments at this point.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
