Welcome everyone to Ben’s Pitching Preview! This season I will be getting back to my roots and focusing on my top SP options for each slate. After all, a SP breakdown was my first ever regular article on this site when I started providing content many years ago.
Our Core Plays have been great to start the season, including a $10,000 win on DraftKings! You can pick up a package here.
Let’s get into it!
Gerrit Cole
We have two top-tier SP options on Wednesday’s slate, starting with the ace of all aces in Gerrit Cole. Not much needs to be said here, as he’s once again having an elite season. Cole owns a 2.34 xFIP with over 40% strikeouts so far this season. He’s racked up eight or more strikeouts in all but one start, the outlier being an excusable match-up with the Astros. We also have a large sample size of Cole against this Rays lineup. In 181 PA against the current roster, he allows a .229 xwOBA with 40% strikeouts. Sheesh. We have seen soft pricing from DraftKings all season long, and there’s no doubt in my mind he should be well over $11,000 in salary in this match-up.
Brandon Woodruff
As I noted above, the soft-pricing has allowed me to pay up for both SP slots seemingly nightly on DraftKings this season. While it didn’t work out great last night, I was easily able to fit in a full stack of Toronto (my top grade on the slate) with two expensive pitchers in Freddy Peralta and Walker Buehler. The fact that Brady Singer was over 50% owned shows people still haven’t caught on to this soft pricing, and it’s something I plan on continuing to take advantage of.
Onto Woodruff, he has 100% been an ace this season for the Brewers. He owns a 32.5% strikeout rate this season with tons of swing and miss ability. He’s also been one of the best pitchers in baseball in contact management. He’s giving up nearly no barrels. His 1.9% barrel/PA rate is fourth-best in baseball among qualifiers. He has been dominant to both sides of the plate, but should see another right-handed heavy lineup by the Cardinals. I fully plan to roster Cole alongside Woodruff on my main team on DK tonight, and would be choosing between one of them on FanDuel.
GPP Pivot: Danny Duffy
Tournaments are different than cash games, or single entry formats, and we can always look to be different when playing for first place. Due to his high price, Duffy is someone I see coming in very low-owned on Wednesday night. I typically keep a very tight pool nightly at the pitcher spot, and the only thing I’m concerned with is if a guy has K upside regardless of OWN%. Despite being a middling starter for the majority of his career, this is someone with strikeout ability. Duffy has upped his strikeout rate to over 28% this season, and it comes with a 4% increase in swinging strikes as well. Furthermore, these middle of the road starters are where I especially weight match-up, and he has one of the best on the slate against the lowly Tigers. Since the start of last season, the projected Tigers lineup has a combined 26% strikeout rate against lefty pitching. I actually like what I’ve seen from Duffy in 2021, and will consider him in GPP formats tonight.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
