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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Jake Odorizzi
Jake Odorizzi has looked outstanding early this season, posting a 4-2 record with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP through seven starts. He could see regression through more innings, though, as he owns a 4.48 xFIP and a 4.34 SIERA. Odorizzi has allowed a ridiculous 48.8% fly ball rate, but has somehow held his opponents to a 4.9% HR/FB rate. He has also held his opponents to a 34.8% hard hit rate, while recording a 21.3% soft hit rate. Odorizzi’s strikeout rate is up to 26.6% in 2019, while his swinging strike rate is up to 12.6%. He gets an elite matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking in the bottom-four of the slate in team wOBA. Most importantly, Odorizzi will be throwing at home, where he has looked significantly better this season. He’s a -218 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, and he makes a strong option in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I can’t believe neither one of us are recommending Justin Verlander tonight, but I do like Odorizzi’s upside in tournaments.
Jason’s Pick: Zack Wheeler
Zack Wheeler has been rather inconsistent to start the 2019 MLB campaign, but tonight, he is in a great spot against the Miami Marlins, making him a great tournament option. The highest upside statistic for pitchers in strikeouts, and Wheeler has a decent 9.2 K/9. The Marlins strikeout 0.243 times per at-bat, and Wheeler has a 6.8 K predictor. Perhaps most importantly for Wheeler, however, is what Vegas thinks about this game. The O/U is set at 7 runs, and with a -175 ML favoring the Mets at home, the Marlins have a horrible implied run total of 3, which is the worst on tonight’s slate. Wheeler has a solid ground ball rate of 45%, which has led to a low HR/9. The Marlins are not one of the better offenses in the league, and this should be a rather boring game, which benefits pitchers. Wheeler, based on Vegas, can be rostered in all leagues, but he is a better tournament option.
Justin’s Reaction: Wheeler is reasonably priced, and he’s one of my favorite pitchers on this slate.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Tommy La Stella
Tommy La Stella has been heating up recently, posting a .290 average with a .581 slugging percentage and a .952 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns 3 home run and 11 RBIs over that span, as well. La Stella has recorded 40% hard hit and 45% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. As if that isn’t enough, he gets an elite matchup against Dan Straily, and enters this game with 0.087 wOBA and 0.084 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Straily has been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB this season, and he has allowed a 50.5% fly ball rate with a 17.4% HR/FB rate this season. The Los Angeles Angels feature an implied run total of 6.4 runs tonight, and La Stella will be leading off. He saw his price jump a bit, but he’s still too cheap for his current situation.
Jason’s Reaction: Tommy La Stella is a great option in all leagues due to his spot in the batting order and great splits against right-handed pitching.
Jason’s Pick: Paul Goldschmidt
This is not a drill! I repeat, this is not a drill! Paul Goldschmidt is under $4K tonight. Yes, he is hitting .200 in his last 10 games with only one extra base hit, but Goldschmidt is an elite-level hitter, and he should be perpetually over $4K. On the season, he is hitting .252 with 9 home runs and 21 RBIs. He is likely going to hit second in the St. Louis Cardinals’ batting order, and a right-handed Trevor Williams will take the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Goldschmidt has positive power splits against right-handed pitching, and over the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 235 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 94 MPH, a 43% fly ball rate, and hard hit rate over 50%. His recent batted ball luck indicator suggests he has been unlucky at the plate of recent, and that makes sense considering his ‘struggles’. The Cardinals are expected to score 4.6 runs according to Vegas, and there is no reason to avoid Goldschmidt. He is a great option in all leagues due to his ridiculous price drop.
Justin’s Reaction: I can’t imagine avoiding Goldschmidt for under $4K when his metrics suggest a breakout. Sign me up for all leagues.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Max Kepler
Max Kepler’s recently numbers don’t pop off the page, as he’s only hitting .211 with a .289 slugging percentage and a .585 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted three doubles with one RBI over that span. With that being said, he also owns 42% hard hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Kepler gets a great matchup against Tyson Ross tonight, and he possesses 0.027 wOBA and 0.05 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Kepler is expected to lead off for the Minnesota Twins, and he makes a strong option in all leagues in this matchup.
Jason’s Reaction: Another great recommendation based on his batting order spot and splits against right-handed pitching. Well done, Justin.
Jason’s Pick: Randal Grichuk
This recommendation has a lot more to do with peripheral information than Randal Grichuk’s talent level. He is expected to hit third tonight for the Toronto Blue Jays, and the Blue Jays are expected to score 5 runs tonight via Vegas. Grichuk has a 0.027 ISO differential against right-handed pitching, and Dylan Covey is one of the worst pitching options taking the mound tonight for any team. Over the last 15 days, Grichuk has an average batted ball distance slightly under 200 feet, but his exit velocity on those batted balls is 92 MPH, and his hard hit rate is approaching 50%. In his last 10 games, he is hitting .275 compared to his season average of .248. He also has three extra base hits, including one home run, three RBIs, and two walks. Grichuk has quite a bit of upside, especially if the Blue Jays have runners in scoring position when he makes the walk to the plate. Oh, and his price tag is rather low.
Justin’s Reaction: Grichuk is surprisingly cheap, and makes a great options. He’s safe with some upside, as well.
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