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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels have featured plenty of offensive ups and downs this season, ranking 16th in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, 12th in home runs, and 15th in OPS. Los Angeles was a slightly better offense on the road in 2018, where they posted a .246 average with a .408 slugging percentage and a .722 OPS over 81 games. The Angeles also averaged 4.5 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game on the road last season. They are currently -178 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 6.4 runs.
Los Angeles gets an elite matchup against Dan Straily, who has been one of the worst pitchers in the MLB this season. Through six games (five starts), he owns a 1-2 record with a 7.44 ERA and a 1.87 WHIP. He also owns a 7.20 xFIP and a 6.43 SIERA this season. Straily has allowed a 50.5% fly ball rate to go along with a 17.4% HR/FB rate in 2019. Surprisingly, he has only allowed a 35.2% hard hit rate, but that hasn’t mattered thus far. Straily’s strikeout rate has dropped to 9.8% this season, while his swinging strike rate sits at 8.8%. Straily struggled more against left-handed batters in 2018, allowing them to hit for a .264 average with a .460 slugging percentage and a .360 wOBA. Straily has also seen limited innings at home this season, but he is allowing his opponents to hit for a .412/.897/.548 line in 2019. The Angels have struggled on the road this season, but they should benefit from playing in a hitter friendly stadium tonight. There’s also no reason to avoid them in this particular matchup, regardless of their road struggles this season.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have found some offensive success early in the 2019 season, ranking 11th in the MLB in runs scored, 16th in home runs, 15th in team batting average, and 17th in OPS. Last season, they were at their best at home, where they hit for a .282 average with a .482 slugging percentage and an .829 OPS. The Red Sox averaged 5.8 runs and 4.1 extra-base hits per game in Boston in 2018. They are -181 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.8 runs tonight.
The Red Sox get a matchup against Erik Swanson, who has struggled with a 1-3 record, 4.94 ERA, and a 1.23 WHIP through five games (four starts) this season. He has also posted a 5.08 xFIP and a 4.85 SIERA this season. Swanson has struggled with 44.9% fly ball and 14.3% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has only allowed a 30% hard hit rate, while also recording a 15% soft hit rate. Swanson has struggled with a 16.7% strikeout rate to go along with an 8.4% swinging strike rate. He has seen limited innings in the MLB, but he has struggled more against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .302 average with a .628 slugging percentage and a .392 wOBA. Boston’s numbers are down a bit in 2019, but they have only played 39.5% of their games at home. They’re due for positive regression as they play more at home, and this is an ideal matchup that they can take advantage of. The Red Sox can be stacked in all leagues tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals have been playing at an extremely high level offensively this season. Through 38 games, they rank fifth in the MLB in runs scored, 17th in home runs, second in team batting average, and eighth in OPS. They struggled at times at home in 2018, where they recorded a .245 average with a .382 slugging percentage and a .696 OPS. The Cardinals also averaged 4.3 runs and 2.4 extra-base hits per game in St. Louis last season. They are -152 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, and they own an implied run total of 4.8 runs.
Trevor Williams will be taking the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates this season. He has seen a few ups and downs this season, recording a 1-1 record with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP through seven starts. He also owns a 4.35 xFIP and a 4.44 SIERA in those games. Williams has held his opponents to a 34.4% fly ball rate with a 6.7% HR/FB rate. Williams has also held his opponents to a 35.8% hard hit rate, which is a bit concerning. Still, his strikeout rate sits at only 18.1%, while he enters this game with a 9.5% swinging strike rate. He has struggled more against left-handed batters throughout his career, allowing them to hit for a .263 average with a .394 slugging percentage and a .311 wOBA. St. Louis is a team that will likely go overlooked because of the size of the slate, but their players, specifically Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter, are entirely too cheap.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Nolan Arenado
Arenado posted an elite .420 average with an .898 slugging percentage and a .477 ISO at home against left-handed pitching last season. He also owns 0.162 wOBA and 0.201 ISO differentials against lefties. Furthermore, Arenado owns 55% hard hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Ryan O’Hearn
O’Hearn has been playing at a high level recently, posting 45% hard hit and 41% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also been at his best against right-handed pitching, recording 0.222 wOBa and 0.198 ISO differentials against righties. He’s only hitting sixth in the Kansas City Royals lineup, though.
Shohei Ohtani
Ohtani has only played in three games this season, but he has posted a .309 average with a .648 slugging percentage and a .339 ISO against right-handed pitching throughout his career. He’ll be playing in a hitter friendly stadium tonight, and he gets a plus matchup against Dan Straily, who has been a fly ball pitcher in 2019.
Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins has been a reverse splits hitter, and he brings 0.078 wOBA and 0.151 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. He has been playing well recently, as well, posting 51% hard hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Alex Bregman
Bregman is playing at an elite level, recording six home runs over his last nine games. He has also posted 52% hard hit and 60% fly ball rates with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also posted a .301 average with a .560 slugging percentage and a .259 ISO at home against right-handed pitching in 2018.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jake Odorizzi
Odorizzi has seen plenty of ups and downs this season, but he enters this game with a 4-2 record with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP through seven starts. He also owns a 4.48 xFIP and a 4.34 SIERA, suggesting he could see a bit of regression as he throws more innings. Odorizzi has allowed a 48.8% fly ball rate, while allowing only a 4.9% HR/FB rate. He has also held his opponents to a 34.8% hard hit rate, while recording only a 21.3% soft hit rate. Odorizzi has also posted 26.6% strikeout and 12.6% swinging strike rates in 2019. He’s a -223 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 3.6 runs tonight.
Odorizzi gets a matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking fourth last in team wOBA. In 2018, Odorizzi was slightly better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .246 average with a .396 slugging percentage and a .318 wOBA. He has looked elite at home this season, where he has held his opponents to a 0.96 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. Odorizzi could see a decent amount of ownership tonight, and he isn’t absurdly cheap, but this is as cheap of a pitcher as I would play tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Paul Goldschmidt
Goldschmidt has been ice cold recently, posting a .200 average with a .225 slugging percentage and a .463 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns only one extra-base hit with two RBIs over that span. While his numbers don’t stick out, Goldschmidt owns 51% hard hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also been a slightly better option against right-handed pitching, recording 0.014 wOBA and 0.038 ISO differentials against righties.
Goldschmidt gets a matchup against Trevor Williams, who was outlined above. Goldschmidt is expected to hit second in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, and he’s in line for a breakout. While his RBI potential is somewhat limited in the two hole, it’s impossible to avoid a player as good as Goldschmidt for his current price tag.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
