Welcome to our MLB DFS Building Blocks, DraftKings and FanDuel picks for 5/1/22! In this article, I’ll break down by top overall plays for today’s main slate. Last year was an extremely big year for the Karma team in MLB, and we are looking to continue that success in 2022. I will be providing Core Plays for every main slate (and day baseball) this season — you can gain access to that as well as our premium discord here. You can also try out the Core Plays package with a $5 daily pass. Let’s get to the plays…
Pitcher
Corbin Burnes
Burnes needs no introduction, sporting a massive 36% strikeout rate since the start of 2021. Not only is the the best pitcher on this slate, but he gets a strong match-up against the Cubs as well. There are a ton of strikeouts in this Cubbies lineup, with the team posting a huge 25% strikeout rate since the start of last season. He’s the most expensive option on Sunday’s slate, but I see no reason to overthink things in cash games. Burnes is the top option in all formats.
Joe Musgrove
Sunday seems like a double-spend slate for me at pitcher and there are plenty of options across the board. This is one of the stronger SP slates over the last few weeks, but Musgrove sticks out above the field as my second favorite option. For starters, Musgrove has been approaching ace-status since joining the Padres. He’s posted a sparkling 2.55 expected ERA this season to go along with 26% strikeouts and just 2% walks. He has arguably the strongest overall match-up on the slate as well against the Pirates. This Pirates lineup is not good, and it’s also a revenge spot for Musgrove who was traded away from Pittsburgh to San Diego. I’m not sure if you can really classify revenge narratives in MLB like other sports, but he should be motivated to have a good outing after underwhelming yearly during his time with the Pirates. He’s expensive, but he ranks above similar priced pitchers for me on Sunday.
It appears that Nick Pivetta will be pretty chalky across the industry today against the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore has been pretty terrible offensively and their projected lineup is striking out 25% of the time against right-handed pitching. I understand the play — and Pivetta has a career 24% strikeout rate against this lineup — but I just don’t know if I need to go there. There seems to always be value bats, and I would much rather spend up for two pitchers if possible than use a guy with an expected ERA over 9.00.
Building Blocks
Aaron Judge
The Yankees once again get a beatable lefty on the hill, which is going to force attention and ownership towards their powerful right-handed batters. I’ve been locking in Aaron Judge seemingly all weekend, and I’m not going to stop today against Lynch. We know that pretty much all the Yankees righties hit lefties well, so what’s important is looking at the pitch mix splits. Lynch is mainly fastball / slider to righties, which is good news for Judge. He is a dominant fastball hitter, but he also hits sliders well owning a .342 wOBA and .286 ISO. It’s a fairly obvious play on Sunday, but I will be building my main lineup around Judge.
Alex Verdugo
Verdugo is popping as a value today against Jordan Lyles — and I do think he is underpriced on both sites. Over the last few seasons, Lyles has been terrible striking out just 19% of batters faced and allowing above-average power to both sides of the plate. Verdugo has been very strong for Boston over that span — he owns a.366 wOBA and the lowest strikeout rate in the lineup at 13.5%. Most importantly he hits the ball hard — and hits fastballs well which is important considering Lyles throws that pitch over 50% of the time to left-handed batters. Boston will be one of the higher-owned offenses today but I think Verdugo is a must-play in cash games even as a one-off.
Bold Call
Boston scores 10 runs!
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
