Pitchers
Jacob deGrom- Some might be scared off by the elbow injury that kept deGrom out for a start a week or so ago, and the fact that he returned to the rotation only to allow 5 runs to the Brewers in 4 innings. I, however, am not worried. His velocity was right around what he has been the last two seasons, his pitch mix was spot on, and the swing and misses were there as well (almost 14.0%). He simply got BABIP’d to death by one of the best lineups in the MLB, and guess what? The Reds are not one of the best lineups in the MLB! The Reds rank third-worst in the league in wRC+ against righties this season and they couple that with a 24.2% strikeout rate, good for 9th most. I am going to trust that he is all good here, and take the savings we get with him off of Mad Max for my cash game SP1 on DraftKings.
Caleb Smith- This is one of the spots where I’m simply going to take a stand, and be overweight on Caleb Smith tonight. I love what you can do with the savings by dropping to him on FanDuel, and I think he makes perfect sense as an SP2 with deGrom on FanDuel over Aaron Nola who I assume will be the chalky choice. Smith has been one of the best pitchers in the MLB this season boasting a 2.99 SIERA, 33.9% strikeouts backed by 15.6% swinging strikes and only 6.4% walks. This Indians lineup has Lindor back, but they are not a good offense. They sport just a 65 wRC+ against southpaws as a team this season, much without Lindor, and they add-in fifth-highest strikeout rate at 27.7%.
Max Scherzer (GPP)- Max has been his normal self in 2019 despite what his 4.12 ERA says, Max sports a 2.56 SIERA along with 34.0% strikeouts and his usual elite control (3.0% walks). He has one of the toughest matchups on the board tonight against a strong Cardinals lineup, but it is important to note that he will see 7 (!) righties tonight, which Max struck out at a near 40.0% clip last season. I would be interested in him in cash games most slates, but with 6 quality arms on this slate the depth of the Cardinals lineup takes him off the must-play list in cash games. That being said, 7 righties is an insanely good spot and Max will 100% be on my main tournament team tonight.
Hyun-Jin Ryu (GPP)- On a loaded slate, I’m going to elect Ryu as my second tournament pitcher over the likes of Corey Kluber and Aaron Nola both in strong matchups. Ryu has an equally good matchup against the San Francisco Giants, who have been dreadful against left-handed pitching this season, and he’s continued his 2018 success with elite strikeout numbers and under 2.0% walks to start this year. He gets the best pitching environment on the slate in San Francisco, and I think he will be a good bit lower owned than Nola in tournaments.
Building Blocks
Franmil Reyes- Reyes is a fresh off a double-dong performance last night, and now gets a lefty on the hill in Max Fried. Fried has been really good against righties in 2019, piling up over 50.0% ground balls, but Reyes is more than capable of getting the ball up in the air against him. Reyes owns a career .223 ISO and 47.0% hard-hits against left-handed pitchers, and did not see a price bump despite his big game last night.
Jesus Aguilar/Travis Shaw- You’ll read below just why I love the Brewers tonight, but I will dive into why I think Aguilar/Shaw are such string cash game plays. For starters, they are in the middle of one of the best lineups in the MLB, and they are both under-priced due to cold starts to the season. Aguilar has three homers in his last two games, so he is heating up, but it’s about time Shaw comes around too. Antonio Senzatela’s saving grace is his ability to generate ground balls, sadly, both Aguilar and Shaw had over 40.0% hard hits and fly balls against righties last season. Take advantage of these prices, and don’t overthink things in cash games.
Stacks
1. Atlanta Braves- The Braves may end up decently popular tonight, but with the presence of the Brewers, Phillies and Astros on this slate plus a watered down Braves lineup, I think they end up a tad under-owned relative to what they should be. For what seems like the 10th day in a row, we have pretty much the slate’s best hitting weather in Atlanta, and rookie Cal Quantrill on the hill for the Padres. Quantrill doesn’t profile as a big strikeout pitcher based off his minors numbers, and if balls are being put in play in the heat by this deep Braves lineup it could spell trouble. I’ll stick with the top-five as my stack on DraftKings, with Freeman sticking out as one of my favorite plays on the entire slate.
2. Milwaukee Brewers- As you can see below, I expect the Brewers to be pretty chalky tonight against Antonio Senzatela, but I can’t ignore them in this write-up. I am one of the most transparent writers in the industry, and it’s incredibly easy to make similar lineups to mine based off this article and my Final Thoughts cheat sheet. I 100% will be looking to stack the Braves alongside the Brewers on my main team tonight, and the pricing works out perfectly. Senzatela is another guy that can’t strike people out, and against a deep lineup like the Brewers that could be a disaster. He has ground ball ability, but the Brewers lineup is filled with guys that can get the ball up in the air. I would start with Jesus Aguilar and Travis Shaw for cash games, filling in with Moustakas, Braun and Cain for a full-on stack in GPPs.
Chalk Stacks: Brewers, Astros, Phillies
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
