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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Caleb Smith
Caleb Smith has been enjoying an elite season, posting a 2-0 record with a 2.17 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP through five starts. His peripherals back this success up, as he owns a 3.04 xFIP and a 3.00 SIERA. He has allowed a 43.5% fly ball rate to his opponents, but he has also held them to an 11.1% HR/FB rate. Most importantly, Smith has recorded an elite 33.9% strikeout rate to go along with a 15.6% swinging strike rate. His command has been spectacular, as his walk rate is down to only 6.4% this season. Smith gets a matchup against the Cleveland Indians, who rank fourth on this slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank fourth last on the slate in team wOBA. Smith has been a better option at home, although the sample size is limited, and he’s a +119 underdog in a game set at only 6.5 runs tonight. He’s still relatively cheap for his metrics, and he’s an elite option in all leagues.
Jason’s Reaction: Smith is definitely one of the best pitching options available tonight, and he can be rostered in all leagues.
Jason’s Pick: Jacob deGrom
Jacob deGrom gets a good matchup tonight against the Cincinnati Reds, but it is surrounding factors that make him an elite option for tonight’s DraftKings’ slate. It is expected to be around 50 degrees tonight in New York, which will greatly benefit deGrom, as it should neutralize power hitters, and Vegas has the implied run total for the Reds at a terrible 2.8. The New York Mets’ ace has a K/9 over 11, and the Reds are not immune to the strikeout. It has not been the greatest of starts to the 2019 campaign for deGrom, but he is poised to turn that around tonight. Expect him to return to the form he was in during the first two games of the season. His price tag is down right now, as well, which makes him an even more valuable pitching option.
Justin’s Reaction: deGrom’s price is entirely too low for his talent, but he has been struggling recently. Still, I’m willing to take the plunge on him tonight.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Justin Turner
Justin Turner has been a consistent option, while flashing upside over his last 10 games. Over that span, he has scored fantasy points in each game, while posting double-digit fantasy points in three contests. His numbers are far from elite, though, as he’s hitting .270 with two extra-base hits and a pair of RBIs. Turner also owns 54% hard hit and 39% fly ball rates with a 98 MPH exit velocity in those games, suggesting he could breakout more soon. The matchup against Madison Bumgarner in San Francisco is far from ideal, but also not enough to push me away from this play. In 2018, Turner hit .336 with a .580 slugging percentage and a 1.028 OPS against left-handed pitching. He also posted a .244 ISO against lefties for good measure. He’s expected to hit third in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and he’s an option that can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Turner’s price tag is down right now, which makes him a viable tournament option, but with such a bad matchup in a pitcher-friendly stadium, I’ll avoid him in cash games.
Jason’s Pick: Matt Carpenter
This is a high-upside tournament option only tonight. Do not roster Matt Carpenter is cash games. He gets a very difficult matchup against Max Scherzer, and his season has been very sub-par thus far. His numbers suggest that he is struggling, but advanced statistics suggest quite a bit of bad luck. He has a fly ball rate over 50%, and a hard hit rate of almost 40%. He has a positive ISO differential against right-handed pitching, and he should be way under-owned tonight based on his recent production and terrible matchup. Even so, a home run is a possibility, and extra-base hits are coming soon for Carpenter. It might be wise to roster him in tournaments tonight. If he does break out of his slump, it will skyrocket fantasy owners with enough resolve to roster such a seemingly bad fantasy option. Trust the process, not the results, and Carpenter’s process has been good at worst.
Justin’s Reaction: It seems like every time I roster Carpenter, he has multiple out to the warning track, but can never grab that home run. I’m willing to play him again tonight, but I’d lean more towards Turner.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Franmil Reyes
I recommended Franmil Reyes as my “Hidden Gem” yesterday, and I cashed in with two home runs. I’m going back to the well tonight. With his performance last night, Reyes is now hitting .267 with a .700 slugging percentage and a .967 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns five extra-base hits (four home runs) and six RBIs. He could go a bit overlooked, though, as 65 of his 74 fantasy points over that span have come in two games. Still, his metrics lineup well, as Reyes owns 68% hard hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 98 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been a more powerful option against right-handed pitching, but he enters this game with a 0.042 wOBA differential against lefties. Reyes gets a decent matchup against Max Fried, and he’s expected to hit second in the San Diego Padres’ lineup. While he isn’t safe enough for cash games, he makes an elite tournament option for a low price tag.
Jason’s Reaction: I was going to recommend Reyes, if you didn’t. Very strong recommendation here.
Jason’s Pick: Kole Calhoun
Kole Calhoun consistently finds his way into this article, but for good reasons. He is consistently under-priced on DraftKings, and his advanced statistics remain very solid. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance over 210 feet, his average exit velocity on those batted balls is 94 MPH, and both his fly ball and hard hit rates are nearing 50%. Calhoun is hitting first for the Los Angeles Angels tonight, per usual, and his ISO differential against right-handed pitching is 0.105. His consistency has been down this season, as he is hitting under .200, but he does have seven home runs, so the power and upside are quite obvious. Roster him in tournaments.
Justin’s Reaction: I have no problems with Calhoun tonight. Strong option in tournaments.
Be sure to follow Justin (@BalesSJustin) and Jason (@BalesTJason) on Twitter!
