What’s up, Karma Nation!? I have some great news for you! If you’re thinking about joining the Karma Nation, use Promo Code “STRIKEOUT” to get 10% of ANY package for the lifetime of that subscription! Click here for our packages.
Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have found plenty of offensive success in 2019, ranking 10th in the MLB in runs scored, 13th in home runs, third in team batting average, and fifth in OPS. Atlanta was a team that was at their best at home last season, where they posted a .255 average with a .404 slugging percentage and a .730 OPS. They also averaged 4.8 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game at home last season. The Braves are currently a -150 favorite in a game set at 9 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.0 runs.
Atlanta gets a matchup against Cal Quantrill, who will be making his MLB debut tonight. He hasn’t been a dominant option in the minors, as he owns a career 19-22 record with a 4.47 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP through 67 career starts. He also hasn’t posted an xFIP lower than 4.00 since 2016 on the Padres A- team. In limited innings at the Triple-A level in 2019, Quantrill has posted a 22% strikeout rate, but that’s a bit higher than his averages prior to this season. He has also held his opponents to 30.6% fly ball and 9.1% HR/FB rates, but it’s safe to assume that those rates will increase at the MLB level. Quantrill doesn’t have the makings of an ace, and he’ll likely never find a low of success in the Majors. He’s a right-handed pitcher, though, so it’s relatively to safe to assume that left-handed bats will find more success against him [because of the lack of statistics on him at the moment]. Still, I wouldn’t truly shy away from anyone on Atlanta’s team, as this is a matchup that everyone can find success in.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers are another team that has feature an above average offense in 2019. They currently rank seventh in the MLB in runs scored, second in home runs, 15th in team batting average, and 12th in OPS. The Brewers found more fantasy success at home in 2018, where they hit for a .247 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .753 OPS. They also averaged 4.7 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game in Milwaukee last season. Tonight, they are -146 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.0 runs.
The Brewers get a matchup against Antonio Senzatela, who has found mixed results early in the 2019 season. He currently owns a 2-1 record with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP through three starts. He has also posted a 4.01 xFIP and a 4.45 SIERA in those games. He has held his opponents to a ridiculous 19.3% fly ball rate, but he has allowed an 18.2% HR/FB rate in 2019. He also doesn’t strike batters out at a high rate, as he enters this game with a 14.5% strikeout rate to go along with a 7.1% swinging strike rate. Senzatela has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .274 average with a .464 slugging percentage and a .338 wOBA. He has also allowed lefties to hit for a .246/.400/.311 line in his career, as well. The Brewers are a team that comes with quite a bit of upside, but they found themselves as the “Vegas Stack” instead of the “Chalk Stack” because of Senzatela’s ground ball rate. Regardless, they make the perfect three-max entry stacking option on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies have featured a few ups and downs early this season, ranking 11th in the MLB in runs scored, 17th in home runs, and 16th in team batting average and OPS through 29 games. The Phillies found more success at home in 2018, posting a .236 average with a .411 slugging percentage and a .726 OPS. They also averaged 4.6 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game in Philadelphia last season. They feature a revamped offense in 2019, and they are currently -220 favorites in a game set at only 7.5 runs. They own an implied run total of 4.6 runs tonight.
Daniel Norris will be taking the mound for the Detroit Tigers tonight. He has seen mixed results through five games (two starts) this season, posting a 1-0 record with a 3.93 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in those contests. He has struggled a bit more than that, though, recording a 4.90 xFIP and 4.60 SIERA this season. Norris has allowed a 41.4% fly ball rate this season, while also allowing a 16.7% HR/FB rate. His strikeout rate is down to 18.8% in 2019, while his swinging strike rate sits at only 7.4%. Norris has struggled against the majority of his competition throughout his career. He has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .277 average with a .443 slugging percentage and a .335 wOBA. He has also allowed lefties to hit for a .258/.502/.355 line in the same categories. The Phillies have flashed as an offense, but their inconsistencies could keep their ownership relatively low, but this is an elite matchup for them on this slate.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Rowdy Tellez
Tellez is a player that has been at his best against right-handed pitching. He enters this game with 0.173 wOBA and 0.19 ISO differentials against righties. He has also caught fire recently, posting 54% hard hit and 35% fly ball rates with a 97 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Justin Bour
Bour is only hitting eighth in the Los Angeles Angels lineup, but he bring 40% hard hit and fly ball rates over the last 15 days into this game. He also owns a 90 MPH exit velocity over that span. Bour has also posted 0.065 wOBA and 0.134 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Justin Smoak
Smoak is another Toronto Blue Jay, who has been playing well recently. Over the last 15 days, he has posted 58% hard hit and fly ball rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity. Similarly to Tellez, Smoak has dominated right-handed pitching, recording 0.09 wOBA and 0.114 ISO differentials against righties.
Nelson Cruz
Cruz has been better against left-handed pitching, but he still posted a .253 average with a .489 slugging percentage and a .237 ISO against righties in 2018. He has also been on fire recently, posting 57% hard hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 99 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Alex Bregman
Bregman is coming off of an elite season against left-handed pitching, posting a .315 average with a .567 slugging percentage and a .253 ISO against lefties last season. He gets a plus matchup tonight, and brings 48% hard hit and 56% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days into this game.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Felix Pena
Pena hasn’t been a dominant option this season, but he has flashed upside. Through five games (four starts), he owns an 0-1 record with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. His ERA also drops to 2.41 at home. Pena could see some regression as the season continues, though, as he owns a 4.49 xFIP and a 4.05 SIERA in 2019. He has struggled a bit with 40.7% fly ball and 16.7% HR/FB rates this season. His strikeout rate sits at 23.9%, though, while he also brings a 12.6% swinging strike rate into this game. Pena is a -115 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4.2 runs.
He gets a plus matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, who rank sixth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank as an above average offense in terms of team wOBA on this slate, but they’ll be playing in a pitcher friendly stadium tonight. Pena has a significantly better option against right-handed batters last season, holding them to a .220 average with a .345 slugging percentage and a .270 wOBA in 2018. He isn’t a pitcher that should be used in cash games on this slate, but he can be considered in tournaments tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Franmil Reyes
Reyes hit two home runs for us last night, and we’re going back to the well here. His numbers look significantly better tonight, as he has posted a .267 average with a .700 slugging percentage and a .967 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (four home runs) and six RBIs over that span. Reyes also owns 68% hard hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 98 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He brings a 0.042 wOBA differential against left-handed pitching into this game, as well.
Reyes gets a solid matchup against Max Fried, who has performed well early through the 2019 season. He has held his opponents to only 25.3% fly ball rate to go along with a 13% HR/FB rate. His strikeout rate sits at only 20.5%, though, while he enters this game with a 9.8% swinging strike rate. Fried has struggled against right-handed batters throughout his career, allowing them to hit for a .246 average with a .386 slugging percentage and a .311 wOBA. Reyes is hitting second in the San Diego Padres lineup, and he makes an elite tournament option once again.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
