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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
Once again, the Colorado Rockies will make up the “Chalk Stack,” which is often the case when they play at home. They were significantly better in Coors in 2018, recording a .287 average with a .503 slugging percentage and an .852 OPS over 81 games. The Rockies also averaged 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in Colorado last season. They haven’t found the same success this season, though, ranking 22nd in the MLB in runs scored, 23rd in home runs, 24th in team batting average, and 25th in OPS. Tonight, the Rockies are -122 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.5 runs.
Colorado gets a matchup against Max Fried, who has yet to allow any runs over 7.2 innings this season. In his career, he owns a 3-5 record with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP over 26 games (10 starts). He posted a 4.61 ERA over 13 Triple-A starts last season, though, suggesting he could see regression at some point in time. He has also held his opponents to a 0.8 HR/9, while recording a 9.5 K/9 over 67.1 innings. Fried has looked outstanding against virtually everyone, and it doesn’t seem as if right- or left-handed batters have an edge. He has however been significantly worse away from home, where he’s allowing his opponents to hit for a .248 average with a .387 slugging percentage and a .331 wOBA. Fried will be traveling to the most hitter friendly stadium in the MLB, while taking on a lineup, who has a few players that feature elite splits against left-handed pitching. This could be the start of his regression, or at least a speed bump in his path of success.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Oakland A’s
Similarly to last night, the Oakland A’s find themselves as our “Vegas Stack.” They have featured plenty of ups and downs early in the 2019 season, ranking seventh in the MLB in runs scored, fifth in home runs, 19th in team batting average, and 18th in OPS. In 2018, they were a significantly better team on the road, where they owned a .262 average with a .464 slugging percentage and a .795 OPS. They also averaged 5.5 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game away from home. Oakland is currently a -173 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they are tied with the Colorado Rockies for the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.5 runs.
The A’s get a matchup against John Means, who has thrown limited innings in the MLB throughout his career. Overall, he owns a 1-0 record with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP over four games. He has also allowed a 2.0 HR/9, while recording a 13.0 K/9 through nine innings. He posted an xFIP around 4.00 during his time in Double-A and Triple-A baseball, suggesting he could struggle with more innings in the MLB. His career numbers are extremely limited, but he has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .292 average with a .625 slugging percentage and a .396 wOBA. Most importantly, Means likely won’t pitch deep into this game, meaning Oakland will see plenty of innings against the Baltimore Orioles bullpen, which currently hold a 7.31 ERA. The A’s will benefit greatly from playing in such a hitter friendly stadium tonight, and this is a matchup that is difficult to avoid.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Los Angeles Angels
The Los Angeles Angels offense has struggled quite a bit early this season, ranking 20th in the MLB in runs scored, 14th in home run, 25th in team batting average, and 24th in OPS. The Angels were a slightly less consistent, but slightly more powerful offense at home slate season. Overall, they hit .237 with a .418 slugging percentage and a .731 OPS. They averaged 4.4 runs and 3.0 extra-base hits per game at home, as well. They are +119 underdogs in a game set at 8.5 runs tonight, and they own an implied run total of only 4.0 runs.
Freddy Peralta will be taking the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. Peralta has been an outstanding fantasy pitcher, but far from an elite real life pitcher early in his career. Through 18 games (16 starts), he owns a 7-4 record with a 4.13 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. He has also held his opponents to a 0.9 HR/9, while recording an 11.1 K/9 through 89.1 innings. Peralta has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .231 average with a .442 slugging percentage and a .350 wOBA throughout his career. He should see plenty of ownership because of his strikeout upside, but Los Angeles features one of the lowest strikeout rates on the slate. They should be able to work the count in their favor, putting them in better positions for production. Peralta also only throws essentially two pitches, while mixing in a change-up less than 3% of the time. Eventually, this could catch up with him, and Los Angeles is a disciplined offense that makes sense as a leverage stack in tournaments tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Travis Shaw
Shaw continues to struggle, but his peripherals suggest a breakout soon. He owns 45% hard-hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also enters this game with 0.095 wOBA and 0.197 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Joc Pederson
Pederson is a powerful player, who owns 0.189 wOBA and 0.179 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He gets a plus matchup tonight, as well. He also brings 52% hard-hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity into this game tonight, and he continues to make a strong bet for a home run.
Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins homered twice for us last night, and I’m going back to the well again. He’s seeing the ball extremely well, posting 45% hard-hit and 59% fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He’s also a reverse splits hitter, posting 0.06 wOBA and 0.173 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Hoskins gets a massive boost from the ballpark, as well.
Nolan Arenado
Arenado has been struggling a bit recently, but he hit .420 with an .898 slugging percentage, .477 ISO, and 1.378 OPS at home against left-handed pitching last season. He also posted a 24.3% home run rate at home against lefties. This is simply an elite matchup for a player that enters this game with tremendous splits.
Trevor Story
Story is another player, who dominates left-handed pitching, as he owns 0.088 wOBA and 0.117 ISO differentials against lefties. He has also been playing well recently, posting 50% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Story already owns three home runs in only four home games this season.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Derek Holland
Holland has struggled a bit through two starts this season, posting an 0-1 record with a 5.00 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. He has also allowed a 2.0 HR/9, while recording a strong 12.0 K/9. His career K/9 sits at only 7.4, but improved to 8.9 last season, and it looks as if he could potentially keep it there again this season. Holland is currently a +109 underdog in a game set at only 7 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of only 3.7 runs tonight.
He gets an elite matchup against the San Diego Padres, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking in the bottom-five of the slate in team wOBA. Holland was able to neutralize left-handed batters last season, holding them to a .164 average with a .189 slugging percentage and a .209 wOBA. He also didn’t allow a home run to a left-handed batter last season. Holland struggled in his first start against San Diego this season, but he’ll now be throwing in his home stadium, and should see a boost because of that.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Shin-Soo Choo
Choo has gotten out to a strong start this season, recording a .267 average with a .433 slugging percentage and an .822 OPS through nine games. He also owns a 52% hard-hit rate with a 94 mph exit velocity this season, suggesting he is seeing the ball even better than his numbers represent. Choo is a player that is at his best against right-handed pitching, as he enters this game with 0.087 wOBA and 0.101 ISO differentials against righties.
He gets a matchup against Zack Greinke, who has been far from elite this season. He owns a 9.31 ERA, while allowing six home runs over 9.2 innings. He only allowed a .231 average with a .359 slugging percentage and a .279 wOBA to left-handed batters last season, but those numbers have increased dramatically early this season. While they will even out, it shows that Greinke is vulnerable for the time being. Choo is expected to lead off for the Texas Rangers, and he’ll benefit from playing in Arizona tonight. He’s a cheap option, who can be used in all leagues on this slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
