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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Justin Verlander
Since Jason has opted to use an absurdly cheap tournament pitcher, I’ll opt with the expensive cash option. Justin Verlander looked elite in his first start this season, allowing one run over seven innings, while striking out nine Tampa Bay Rays on his way to 32.2 DK points. He was then dominated by the Texas Rangers, who scored four runs over four innings, allowing him to record only four strikeouts. Tonight, Verlander gets a matchup against the New York Yankees, who are currently dealing with a depleted team. They rank second on the team in strikeouts per at-bat, and Verlander owns a K/9 well north of 11.0 since joining the Houston Astros. As if that isn’t enough, he’ll be throwing in one of the more pitcher-friendly stadiums in the MLB. Verlander is a -151 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, giving the Yankees the lowest implied run total on the slate at only 3.4 runs.
Jason’s Reaction: Justin Verlander is the obvious option tonight, but not without good reasons. Lock him into cash lineups, and he can even be considered in tournaments, if using someone opposite of him like Julio Teheran or Anibal Sanchez.
Jason’s Pick: Julio Teheran
Julio Teheran is likely going to go overlooked tonight, as he pitches in the dangerous Coors Field. However, to start the season, Coors Field has not been as dangerous as expected. The Colorado Rockies are a significantly better team at home, hitting .260 compared to .197 away from home, but in 100 at-bats, they only scored 14 runs. In comparison, the New York Mets scored 15 runs at home in 100 at-bats so far this season. Teheran may be able to avoid danger for six or seven strong innings, and the Rockies strikeout 0.299 times per at-bat, which is the highest of any team playing tonight. Teheran has a solid 8.7 K/9, and on top of all that, the weather will benefit pitchers tonight in Colorado. It will be under 70 degrees, the wind is blowing from left to right, and the humidity is down. Teheran has a 37% hard hit rate in the last 15 days, and his speed difference on his pitches is sitting around 1 MPH in the positive direction. The stars are aligned for Teheran, despite the poor ballpark factor. Oh, did I mention his price tag is under $6,000?
Justin’s Reaction: Already attacking pitchers in Coors? Bold strategy. Don’t particularly hate it on this slate, though. Obviously, don’t use Teheran in cash games.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Mike Moustakas
Mike Moustakas has gotten off to a rough start to the 2019 season, as he’s hitting only .156 with a .406 slugging percentage and a .677 OPS over 10 games. That doesn’t tell the whole story, though, as Moustakas owns a 224-foot average batted ball distance, 95 mph exit velocity, and 56% hard-hit and 48% fly ball rates over the last 15 days. He has simply gotten a bit unlucky, and his hits will start to fall shortly. He’ll be moving to a pitcher-friendly stadium, but he gets a plus matchup against Trevor Cahill tonight. Moustakas has been at his best against right-handed pitching, entering this game with 0.043 wOBA and 0.084 ISO differentials against righties. He’s only expected to hit seventh in the Milwaukee Brewers offense, but their lineup is so potent that Moustakas could see plenty of RBI potential. The icing on the cake is that Moustakas is second base and third base eligible on DraftKings, making it rather easy to fit him into your lineups.
Jason’s Reaction: Rostering hitters that are struggling to start the season, but advanced statistics show they are seeing the ball well, is a great strategy. I love this recommendation for that reason.
Jason’s Pick: Ryan O’Hearn
Ryan O’Hearn gets an incredible matchup tonight against the right-handed Felix Hernandez, and he is currently sporting 0.213 ISO and 0.253 wOBA differentials. The wind is going to be blowing out toward right field, which is great for left-handed batters, and it will be above 70 degrees tonight. Over the last 15 days, O’Hearn has a 232-foot average batted ball distance, 95 MPH exit velocity, and a 41% fly ball rate. Unfortunately, he is hitting 52% of his batted balls on the ground and only 5% on a line. This does not bode well for consistency, but in tournaments, he has serious home run potential tonight. O’Hearn is rather cheap for his position, and he is hitting in the heart of the Kansas City Royals’ lineup, so RBI potential is also there.
Justin’s Reaction: There are some Royals I love using for low ownership this season, and O’Hearn is one of them. He generally goes a bit overlooked, and this is too good of a matchup to pass up in tournaments.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Joc Pederson
I considered Robbie Grossman here, but how can you go away from Joc Pederson? He only has seven hits through nine games, but four of those hits have gone for extra-bases, including a trio of home runs. His peripherals over the last 15 days also suggest plenty of upside, as he possesses a 240-foot average batted ball distance, 99 mph exit velocity, and 56% and 43% hard-hit and fly ball rates respectively. He gets a matchup against Miles Mikolas, who has struggled times with strikeouts in his career, and Pederson is a player that will benefit greatly from a contact pitcher. He brings 0.188 wOBA and 0.18 ISO differentials into this game, and he’ll be leading off for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Pederson shouldn’t be used in cash games, but he’s an elite tournament option.
Jason’s Reaction: Luckily, there are multiple outfield positions open on DraftKings. Our readers do not need to choose between Pederson and Grossman. They can roster both!
Jason’s Pick: Robbie Grossman
Robbie Grossman will hit from the left side of plate tonight against the right-handed Andrew Cashner, but his ISO and wOBA are about the same from either side. The wind, much like the wind in Kansas City, is blowing out toward right field, which again, is great for left-handed batters. The humidity is up, so the ball will pop off the bat, and Grossman could use some help with his hard hit rate. He has a solid 222-foot average batted ball distance, but his hard hit rate is only 29%. His fly ball rate is 54%, showing his home run potential. He hit a home run yesterday in Houston, and he would love to kick off the series in Baltimore with same way the series in Houston ended. Grossman, as a leadoff hitter, also should see an extra at-bat, as well as possessing stolen base potential. He has great upside for his price tag at the outfield position.
Justin’s Reaction: Grossman is another strong option for a reasonable price tag. I like this recommendation, as well.
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