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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies have struggled early in the 2019 season, ranking 25th in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, 28th in home runs, and 24th in team batting average through 10 games. They were significantly better at home in 2018, recording a .287 average with a .503 slugging percentage and an .852 OPS over 81 games. The Rockies also averaged 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game in Colorado last season. Tonight, they are -119 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.8 runs.
Colorado gets a matchup against Julio Teheran, who has thrown well early this season. Through two starts, he owns an 0-1 record with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. He has also recorded a 12.6 K/9, while allowing only one home run early this season. Overall, both his home run and strikeout rate are better than his career averages. His swing strike percentage is also up to 14.8% after sitting at 11.2% last season. Teheran’s biggest issues throughout his career have been against left-handed batters, as he has allowed them to hit for a .253 average with a .443 slugging percentage and a .339 wOBA since 2011. While Colorado has a few dangerous lefties in their lineup, they are expected to start six right-handed batters tonight. While that may be the case, Teheran has been a worse pitcher throughout his career on the road, and he’ll be throwing in one of the most hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight. Colorado has a few bats that will feature plenty of ownership on this slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Oakland A’s
The Oakland A’s have featured plenty of ups and downs throughout the new season, ranking eighth in the MLB in runs scored, sixth in home runs, 19th in team batting average, and 18th in OPS. In 2018, they were a significantly better team on the road, where they owned a .262 average with a .464 slugging percentage and a .795 OPS. They also averaged 5.5 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game away from Oakland. The A’s are currently -142 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.5 runs tonight.
Oakland gets a great matchup against Andrew Cashner on this slate. He has struggled early this season, posting a 5.40 ERA with a 1.70 WHIP through two starts. He also owns a career 6.8 K/9 to go along with a 1.0 HR/9. Cashner also owns a 5.99 xFIP and a 6.13 SIERA this season, suggesting he could get worse than his current numbers. Last season, he struggled against everyone, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .301 average with a .483 slugging percentage and a .370 wOBA, while lefties hit for a .277/.508/.361 line. He’ll face off against one of the more powerful teams in the MLB in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums. This is a recipe for disaster for Cashner, and an elite spot to stack Oakland.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles haven’t been an elite offense, but they have been significantly better than expected. They currently rank 16th in the MLB in run scored, 21st in home runs and team batting average, and 22nd in OPS. The Orioles were a significantly better offense at home in 2018, where they posted a .247 average with a .407 slugging percentage and a .717 OPS. They also averaged 4.2 runs and 2.8 extra-base hits per game in Baltimore last season. The Orioles are +131 underdogs in a game set at 10 runs, but they still feature an implied run total of 4.6 runs tonight.
Marco Estrada will be taking the mound for the Oakland A’s tonight. He has thrown well through three starts this season, posting a 2.76 ERA with a 0.80 WHIP. Once again, he has struggled with home runs, posting a 1.7 HR/9 through three starts, while also posting a low 3.9 K/9. Estrada was a reverse splits pitcher last season, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .300 average with a .562 slugging percentage and a .389 wOBA. For what it’s worth, left-handed batters also hit for a .229 average with a .467 slugging percentage and a .322 wOBA against him in 2018. The Orioles are a team that will fly under the radar tonight, and it isn’t often we get them in good spots. They make a high upside tournament stack on this slate tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Joc Pederson
Pederson is a player that can be considered whenever he’s facing off against a right-handed pitcher, who struggles with strikeouts. Pederson brings 0.188 wOBA and 0.18 ISO differentials against righties. He also owns 56% hard-hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 99 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Ryan O’Hearn
O’Hearn is another player that has caught fire recently, posting 47% hard-hit and 41% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. O’Hearn owns elite splits against right-handed pitching, as well, recording 0.253 wOBA and 0.213 ISO differentials against righties. He also owns a career .685 slugging percentage against righties.
Travis Shaw
Shaw has found plenty of success against right-handed pitching, entering this game with 0.098 wOBA and 0.199 ISO differentials against righties. He has performed well recently, too, posting 45% hard-hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins is a reverse splits hitter, who will be playing in a hitter friendly stadium tonight. He brings 0.055 wOBA and 0.0163 ISO differentials against righties into this game. Hoskins has also recorded 47% hard-hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, 60% of his career home runs have come in Philadelphia.
Cody Bellinger
Bellinger has been playing at an unbelievable level this season, recording seven home runs through 10 games. He only owns a 36% fly ball rate, but he also owns a 55% hard-hit rate with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Bellinger is also at his best against right-handed pitching, posting 0.103 wOBA and 0.149 ISO differentials against righties.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Julio Teheran
I have already outlined Teheran above, so I won’t go into too much more detail here. His swinging strike percentage is up to 14.8% from 11.2% last season, adding to already solid strikeout potential. He also gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They are also running a right-handed heavy lineup, and Teheran is known for struggling significantly more against left-handed batters. He is a +111 underdog in a game set at 11 runs, giving the Rockies an implied run total of 5.8 runs tonight. Keep in mind, the Rockies will be chalk, but Teheran is a great hedge in tournaments.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Omar Narvaez
Narvaez has performed well early this season, posting a .265 average with a .441 slugging percentage and a .727 OPS. He also owns two home runs and six RBIs through eight games. Narvaez owns 33% hard-hit and 47% fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. He has also been at his best against right-handed pitching, recording 0.105 wOBA and 0.129 ISO differentials against righties.
Narvaez gets a matchup against Homer Bailey, who looked decent in his only start this season. Bailey struggled last season, though, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .309 average with a .584 slugging percentage and a .394 wOBA. Narvaez is a catcher, who is expected to hit sixth in the Seattle lineup, and he makes a strong option in all leagues for a low price tag.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
