Welcome to our MLB DFS Building Blocks, DraftKings and FanDuel picks for 4/7/22! In this article, I’ll break down by top overall plays for today’s main slate. Last year was an extremely big year for the Karma team in MLB, and we are looking to continue that success in 2022. I will be providing Core Plays for every main slate (and day baseball) this season — you can gain access to that as well as our premium discord here. You can also try out the Core Plays package with a $5 daily pass. Let’s get to the plays…
Pitcher
Shane Bieber
DK was very soft with these Opening Day pitcher salaries, including Bieber at only $8,300. This is important because early on in the season, these guys just aren’t going to get their full workload. This allows us to chase strikeouts more than ever, and with everyone throwing limited innings I only want the guys that I feel have big-time K upside. Bieber fits that mold, he struck out over 33% of batters when we saw him last year and has some of the best stuff in the AL. He also has a dominant Opening Day track record with multiple double-digit strikeout outings on the first day of the season. This is an exciting, up-and-coming Royals lineup but there are plenty of swing and misses to be had here. With Robbie Ray getting PPD, Bieber is the obvious number one on Thursday and a must-play for me on DraftKings.
Max Fried
I just talked about chasing strikeout upside, and my next two arms are not exactly strikeout pitchers…what’s going on? Well, with most of these games in jeopardy of getting cancelled, we are dealing with a very condensed pitcher pool. Fried is certainly not a strikeout artist, but is a very good pitcher as a whole. We have been accustomed to the Reds being a sleeper team in recent years, but they don’t exactly fit that mold heading into 2022. If we look at their 2021 numbers, all of Joey Votto, Aquino, Drury and Naquin featured strikeout rates at or above 25%. So, there are K’s to be had in this lineup, and there’s a chance that we pick up a few extra than we are usually accustomed to with Fried. Fried relies on ground balls to get outs, and the Reds lineup contains mostly ground ball hitters which will play into his hand as well. Overall, I don’t feel great about SP on this slate but Fried is my clear number two for tournaments.
Adam Wainwright
Waino is not the type of player I typically play in DFS, but with games getting PPD across the board he is forced into consideration for me. As I noted above with Bieber, it’s tough to expect these guys to go full innings their first few starts so chasing the upside with strikeouts — which is what we do anyways — makes the most sense. While that isn’t Waino’s game, if there was one pitcher who is going to have a long leash on this slate it’s 100% him. He also draws the top overall match-up on the board against a Pirates lineup that carries a projected .295 wOBA and 24% strikeout rate into the season. Despite not carrying major upside, he is a strong cash game consideration on Thursday.
Building Blocks
Mike Trout
I don’t need to go into much detail here, still one of the top players if not the best in baseball and of course we are interested. That being said, with the value available at pitcher we will have room to spend up for our batters and my lean is Trout. I likely would have sided with Juan Soto here, but that game looks unlikely to play and Trout is a great consolation prize. Framber Valdez is a solid pitcher, but throws primarily his sinker which is a pitch Trout owns. Over the last few seasons — he owns a huge 50% hard-hit rate against the pitch. I’m not super interested in an Angels stack here, but Trout is my top overall play should the Nationals game PDD — and we will easily be able to afford him on Thursday.
Luke Voit
I’m siding with Voit as my top first baseman, working under the assumption that the Mets/Nationals game is going to get PPD. We are looking to target power against Madison Bumgarner — especially from the right-handed side of the plate. Since the start of the 2020 shortened season, Bum has surrendered a .228 ISO and 43% hard-hit rate to right-handed batters. He did see a nice spike in velocity in spring training, which shows a potential rebound season is in play. That being said, despite the velo rise, we still have a long track record of power struggles and that is exactly Voit’s game. Furthermore, Bum throws his cut fastball as his second most-used pitch. Voit has the second-highest wOBA on the team vs that pitch (.479). He has massive power for an affordable price on Opening Day, and can be used in all formats.
Daulton Varsho
Sticking in the same game out west, Varsho is my favorite value play by far and a lock to occupy my catcher spot on Thursday. I’m not entirely sold on Darvish this season, and the one way you can beat him consistently is with the long ball. Dating back to the start of 2020, he’s allowing above-average power to both sides of the plate while skewing more heavily to allowing fly-balls. Not only does Varsho have the best track record for power in this lineup, but he also has a really solid batted ball profile. Over that same span, he sports a 22% line drive rate and 44% fly-ball rate. He has power, is cheap, and we know his game won’t be getting cancelled.
Bold Call
Arizona tags Darvish for thee HR’s — Varsho, Ketel Marte and…Seth Beer!
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
