Welcome everyone to Ben’s Pitching Preview! This season I will be getting back to my roots and focusing on my top SP options for each slate. After all, a SP Breakdown was my first ever regular article on this site when I started providing content many years ago. If you would like to support further and pick up a Core plays subscription, you can do so here. Let’s get into it!
Trevor Bauer
I love day baseball and I love this slate! We are loaded with guys I love to to roster in DFS, starting with two favorites at the top in Shane Bieber and Trevor Bauer. I expect Bieber to be the highest-owned SP1 on DK today, and I am comfortable with him in all formats. That being said, I wrote up Bauer in Coors Field…what did you expect was going to happen today? I really think he has the chance to elevate to best pitcher in baseball this season. Only the best of the best can rival his strikeout upside when is stuff is working, and I do believe he can take a step even further in 2021. I also think he has a super interesting matchup vs the Oakland A’s lineup. I’ve written often over the last year that this lineup is the definition of boom/bust. The projected A’s lineup has a combined .211 ISO vs right-handed pitching over the last year, but it comes with 25% strikeouts. Both Bieber and Bauer are amazing options to start your roster today, but I am leaning slightly towards Bauer as of this moment.
Jack Flaherty
Flaherty sticks out as too cheap on DraftKings today, priced at $7,800 against the Miami Marlins. Users might game log watch and see that he gave up six runs on Opening Day and avoid him, but that doesn’t exactly tell the whole story. He was victimized by a few long balls. Flaherty’s pitch mix looked good, and the velocity and swing and miss stuff was still there. I’m willing to chalk up his first start to rust more than anything else. If that is the case and it was more bad luck than anything, you can see why I think this is way too cheap for a pitcher of his caliber. The projected Marlins lineup strikes out 24% of the time over the last year to righties, with a combined wOBA just over .300.
GPP Option: Pablo Lopez
I wrote Lopez up in his first start and plan on going back to the well in tournaments today. I actually think stacking him with his opponent, Jack Flaherty, in GPPs is a great leverage play and will allow you to fit in whatever high-dollar stack you want. He has great ground ball ability and developing strikeout ability. Over the last year he has generated swings and misses at a 12% rate. Most of the hitters we fear in this Cardinals lineup are right-handed, which bodes well for Lopez. Since the start of 2020, he owns a 52% ground ball rate with virtually all of his punch-outs coming vs same-handed batters.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
