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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Los Angeles Dodgers have featured an elite offense in the MLB early this season, leading the league in runs scored, home runs, and OPS, while also ranking third in the MLB in team batting average. In 2018, Los Angeles was a better offense away from home. They posted a .258 average with a .449 slugging percentage and .793 OPS over 81 road games last season. They also averaged 5.4 runs and 3.7 extra-base hits per game on the road in 2018. Tonight, the Dodgers are -117 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.3 runs.
Los Angeles gets a matchup against Jon Gray, who struggled with a 12-9 record, 5.12 ERA, and 1.35 WHIP over 31 starts last season. With that being said, his 3.47 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA in 2018 suggest that he was a bit unlucky rather than truly that bad. He allowed a 1.4 HR/9, though, while recording a 9.6 K/9 over 172.1 innings. He was at his worst against left-handed batters, who he allowed hit for a .266 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .354 wOBA. Gray also struggled against righties, though, allowing them to hit for a .259/.402/.311 line in 2018. Los Angeles features elite power from the left side of the plate, making them extremely dangerous in this matchup.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have been an above average offense early this season, ranking 10th in the MLB in runs scored, 12th in home runs, fifth in team batting average, and seventh in OPS through seven games. The Braves were a relatively similar offense at home and on the road last season, as they hit for a .255 average with a .404 slugging percentage and a .730 OPS in Atlanta. They also averaged 4.8 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game at home. Tonight, they are -166 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 4.9 runs.
The Braves get a quietly elite matchup against San Alcantara on this slate. He performed well in six starts last season, posting a 2-3 record with a 3.44 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. That doesn’t tell the whole story, though, as his 5.16 xFIP and 5.42 SIERA suggest he’ll see regression this season. He did hold his opponents to a 0.8 HR/9, while recording a 7.9 K/9 last season, though. He has been worse against right-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .202 average with a .425 slugging percentage and a .322 wOBA. Keep in mind, Alcantara’s numbers are a bit skewed by luck, and I’m expecting all of them to worsen as the season progresses. The Braves come with plenty of consistency at home, but they also come with tremendous upside in this type of matchup.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Joc Pederson
Pederson in Colorado is an extremely scary thought for opposing pitchers. He also owns 0.187 wOBA and 0.181 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. If that wasn’t enough, Pederson features 56% hard-hit and 43% fly ball rate with a 100 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber has also been seeing the ball well recently, recording a 50% hard-hit rate with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also dominated right-handed pitching, recording 0.046 wOBA and 0.17 ISO differentials against righties. If that isn’t enough, Schwarber will be playing in an extremely hitter friendly stadium tonight.
Cody Bellinger
Bellinger is another powerful left-handed batter who will be playing in Coors tonight. He owns 0.095 wOBA and 0.135 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He has also found quite a bit of success with 51% hard-hit and 35% fly ball rates over the last 15 days. Over that span, he also owns a 96 mph exit velocity.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Kyle Wright
Wright has truly struggled throughout his MLB career, posting an 0-1 record with a 5.23 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP through five games (one start). He has also allowed a ridiculous 2.6 HR/9, while posting a 7.8 K/9 through 10.1 innings. He also struggled through Spring Training, and his 6.44 xFIP and 6.63 SIERA throughout his career suggest he may not get significantly better. With all that working against him, he’s a -166 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 3.7 runs.
Wright gets an elite matchup against the Miami Marlins, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking second last in team wOBA. He has been a significantly better option against right-handed batters, holding them to a .136 average with a .273 slugging percentage and a .312 wOBA. He has also held left-handed batters to a .214 average, but they have posted a .714 slugging percentage and a .449 wOBA. Wright simply needs to control his opponents power to find success, and that is something that he should be able to do in this matchup. He’ll likely feature plenty of ownership because of his price tag and Vegas odds, and there’s reason to believe this could be his breakout game.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Adam Jones
Jones has gotten off to a scorching start in 2019, as he’s hitting .389 with an .833 slugging percentage and a 1.239 OPS through eight games. Over that span, he owns eight extra-base hits (four home runs) and five RBIs. He also owns 38% hard-hit and 41% fly ball rates with a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Jones has also been at his best against left-handed pitching, recording 0.034 wOBA and 0.008 ISO differentials against lefties.
He gets a matchup against David Price, who has been throwing well over the last few seasons. He had struggled more against right-handed batters in 2018, though, allowing them to hit for .232 average with a .402 slugging percentage and a .301 wOBA. Jones is expected to lead off for the Arizona Diamondbacks, and he makes a high upside option in tournaments, although he shouldn’t be considered in cash games tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
