Pitchers
Trevor Bauer/Gerrit Cole- I don’t think I need to deep dive into the analytics here for you to know these are two of the best pitchers in the game. They both have elite strikeout ability, swing and miss stuff, and profile as guys we want in cash games on this slate. Of the two, Bauer has the much better matchup against the Miami Marlins compared to Cole against the Twins. That being said, Bauer also has two games this season with six walks, but I’m not overly concerned and I believe that’s why his advanced metrics are calling for regression, when really he’s just that good. Of the two, I lean towards Bauer on DraftKings and Cole on FanDuel where you can save $1,000. On DraftKings, however, with a severe lack of cheap pitching, as of now I am going to attempt to fit them both into my cash game build. If that’s not possible, I will select our next guess as my SP2…
Vince Velasquez- After much deliberation, I’m siding with VV over Julio Teheran as my mid tier pitcher tonight. They both profile extremely similarly as guys with some sketchy control but strong strikeout ability, but I can’t get past VV’s matchup with the Tigers and their league-leading strikeout rate to start the season. I will avoid him in tourneys due to expected ownership, but if I can’t fit Cole alongside Bauer this is where I’m looking on Tuesday night.
Griffin Canning (FanDuel)- DraftKings was super aggressive with Canning’s price, but at only $6,100 on FanDuel I’m willing to take a shot on him in tournaments in an attempt to fit in all the bats! Canning profiles as a decent strikeout pitcher given his minors numbers, with string control. He’s mainly fastball, slider, and the Blue Jays are a team that we have picked on with sliders the past few seasons. I don’t anticipate him going very deep into the game, which is why I will avoid in cash games, but for tournaments he is the best cheap option on FD with the White Sox/Orioles game looking unlikely to play.
Tournament Pitcher Pool: Luis Castillo, Walker Buehler, Julio Teheran
Building Blocks
Justin Turner- Only Giancarlo Stanton, JD Martinez and Nolan Arenado own higher wOBA’s against left-handed pitching since the start of 2018 than Justin Turner, which doesn’t really explain why he is so cheap on all sites. He also matched up well, boasting a ,212 ISO and 48.0% hard-contact rate against curveballs, which his opposition Drew Pomeranz throws over 40% of the time to right-handed batters. He is a lock for me in cash game builds, and I will be over-exposed across the industry.
Note: For cash games, this slate is going to be about spending up at SP and saving with the value the Pirates/Rangers presents should that game play. We need to monitor the weather closely, because a cancellation in that game could change the entire slate completely. If it plays, I plan on having 4-5 members of that game in my cash game build specifically Rougned Odor, Gregory Polanco and Joey Gallo.
Stacks
1. St. Louis Cardinals- Anibal Sanchez has been a disaster for the Nationals this season, and not many ever seem to remember that he is a reverse splits pitcher. He has less strikeouts, more fly balls, more hard hits and a higher ISO allowed to right-handed batters, which could be disastrous against the Cardinals lineup that’s packed with right-handed batters. Paul Goldschmidt, Paul DeJong, Marcell Ozuna and Jose Martinez stick out as my favorites with our man Matt Carpenter completing the five-man stack.
2. Chicago Cubs- It hurts me more and more each time, but Felix Hernandez is just not what he once was. Since the start of 2018 he owns a 4.52 SIERA with sub-19.0% strikeouts, and his only saving grace is his ability to still generate ground balls. He gives up above average hard hits, and the Cubs have players that are capable of getting the ball up in the air against him. I would be focusing on the likes of Anthony Rizzo, Javy Baez, Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant for your stack, but wouldn’t be opposed to adding in Ben Zobrist for cheap should he crack the top of the lineup.
Chalk Stacks: Red Sox, Pirates/Rangers (IF GAME PLAYS)
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
