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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have struggled quite a bit early this season, ranking 20th in the MLB in runs scored, team batting average, and OPS, while also ranking 24th in the league in home runs. They were at their in Boston last season, where they posted a .282 average with a .482 slugging percentage and an .829 OPS. The Red Sox also averaged 5.8 runs and 4.1 extra-base hits per game at home in 2018. Tonight, they are -154 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.3 runs.
Boston gets a matchup against Aaron Brooks, who has struggled through five starts this season. He owns a 2-2 record with a 5.33 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 4.69 xFIP and a 4.46 SIERA in 2019, as well. Brooks has also allowed his opponents to hit for a ridiculous 45% fly ball rate, while also allowing a 16.7% HR/FB rate. His strikeout rate is up this season, sitting at 20.7%, while he only owns an 8.2% swinging strike rate through 27 innings. Brooks has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .337 average with a .578 slugging percentage and a .413 wOBA. He has also allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .288/.476/.350 line in his career. Furthermore, Brook has allowed his opponents to post a .331/.554/.416 line away from home through 41 career road innings. Brooks has allowed 3+ earned runs in each of his last four starts, and Boston should find plenty of success at home. This is an elite stacking option, who is safe enough to be considered in all leagues.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Texas Rangers
The Texas Rangers have featured a dominant offense through 27 games this season, ranking third in the MLB in runs scored, eighth in home runs, fifth in team batting average, and fourth in OPS. The Rangers found significantly more success at home in 2018, where they recorded a .256 average with a .438 slugging percentage and a .778 OPS. They averaged 5.3 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game in those contests, as well. Texas is currently a -110 favorite in a game set at 11 runs, and they feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.6 runs.
The Rangers get a matchup against Jordan Lyles, who has looked outstanding through four games. He owns a 2-1 record with a 2.05 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, but his 4.36 xFIP and 3.94 SIERA suggest that he’ll see regression as the season continues. Lyles has struggled with a 50.9% fly ball rate, but he has allowed only a 10.3% HR/FB rate on those fly balls. His strikeout rate is up nearly 10% from his career average, and it sits at 25% in 2019. That likely isn’t sustainable, as his 8.6% swinging strike rate sits only slightly above his career average. Lyles has been worse against left-handed batters throughout his career, allowing them to hit for a .283 average with a .456 slugging percentage and a .354 wOBA. He has also allowed righties to post a .276/.439/.331 line against him. The Rangers feature an offense that can dominate strong pitchers at home, and Lyles is due for plenty of regression. He simply isn’t the high-end pitcher we have seen this season.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals offense has found plenty of success in 2019. They rank fifth in the MLB in runs scored, 12th in home runs, first in team batting average, and seventh in OPS. The Cardinals feature a significantly better offense on the road in 2018, where they posted a .253 average with a .435 slugging percentage and a .763 OPS. St. Louis also averaged 5.0 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game on the road. Tonight, they are -112 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.9 on this slate.
Anibal Sanchez will be taking the mound for the Washington Nationals tonight. He has struggled through five starts this season, posting an 0-3 record with a 6.00 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.77 xFIP and a 5.83 SIERA in 2019. One of Sanchez’s bigger strengths is that he has held his opponents to 37.8% fly ball and 11.8% HR/FB rates. His strikeout rate is down to 15.4% this season, while his swinging strike rate also sits at only 8.8% in 2019. Sanchez has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .264 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .324 wOBA. He no longer looks like he has what it takes to be an MLB pitcher, and St. Louis features one of the hottest offenses in the league at the moment. It’s a bit shocking that they’re going overlooked in this matchup, but it’s something that we can take advantage of in tournaments.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins is hitting fourth in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, and he has found plenty of success at home throughout his career. He has also caught fire recently, posting 53% hard hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Hoskins also owns 0.076 wOBA and 0.172 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Jason Castro
Castro gets a tough matchup against Gerrit Cole, but he’s a sneaky home run option tonight. He brings a 0.212 ISO differential against right-handed pitching into this game. He has also posted 77% hard hit and 55% fly ball rates with a 102 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Justin Smoak
Smoak continues to find success, as he has posted 57% hard hit and fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a plus matchup against Griffin Canning, and he is at his best against right-handed pitching. Smoak brings 0.093 wOBA and 0.121 ISO differentials against righties into this game.
Kole Calhoun
Calhoun will continue to lead off for the Los Angeles Angels against right-handed pitching. He enters this game with 0.027 wOBA and 0.106 ISO differentials against righties, as well. He has also posted 54% hard hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Francisco Lindor
Lindor is back, and he has caught fire recently, although not on paper. Over the last 15 days, he owns 40% hard hit and 54% fly ball rates with a 90 MPH exit velocity. Lindor has also needed only eight games this season to record three home runs. He gets a plus matchup against Sandy Alcantara, although he’ll be playing in a pitcher friendly stadium.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Adam Wainwright
Wainwright has seen mixed results through five starts this season, posting a 2-2 record with a 3.96 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. He has also posted a 4.40 xFIP and a 4.60 SIERA in those games. Wainwright has held his opponents to a 31.9% fly ball rate, but he has also allowed a 13.0% HR/FB rate, which is significantly higher than his career average. He also owns a 20.6% strikeout rate to go along with only a 6.2% swinging strike rate. Wainwright is a -112 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of 4.7 runs tonight.
He gets a matchup against the Washington Nationals, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat and third last in team wOBA. Throughout his career, Wainwright has been better against right-handed batters, holding them to a .242 average with a .359 slugging percentage and a .283 wOBA. He has flashed in good matchups before, scoring 30.5 fantasy points against the San Diego Padres. Wainwright isn’t safe enough for cash games on this slate, but he can be used in tournaments tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Franmil Reyes
Reyes’ numbers don’t jump off on paper, as he’s only hitting .172 with a .379 slugging percentage and a .579 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns two home runs and three RBIs over that span. With that being said, Reyes has also posted 62% hard hit and 41% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, he brings a 0.032 ISO differential against right-handed pitching into this game.
Reyes gets a decent matchup against Julio Teheran, who has struggled through six starts this season. He has allowed a 39.5% fly ball rate to go along with a 14.7% HR/FB rate on the season. Teheran has also found success with a 25.4% strikeout rate, although we may see that regress a bit as the season continues. Teheran has held right-handed batters to a .218 average with a .350 slugging percentage and a .268 wOBA throughout his career. Still, Reyes is expected to hit fourth in the lineup, and his home run metrics add up well. He’s a strong tournament option for a low price tag this season.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
