Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Jameson Taillon
Taillon added a fifth pitch (slider) to his arsenal last season before turning in the best year of his career. In 2018, he posted a 14-10 record with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP over 32 starts. He stated that he finally feels fully comfortable with his slider, and that was on display in his first start. Last season, he threw the slider at an 18.1% rate, but that jumped to 31.3% in his only game this season. His swinging strike percentage has increased in each of his last two seasons, and it jumped from 10.7% last season to 12.1% in his only start this season. I’m expecting Taillon to record more strikeouts this season, and he gets a matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who lead the “main” slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Taillon is going to be underpriced for his first few starts, and he’ll benefit from playing in a pitcher friendly stadium. He’s a -112 favorite in a game set at only 7.5 runs, and he makes an outstanding option tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: At his price tag, Taillon might be the most valuable pitcher available tonight, but don’t forget to lock in Ross Stripling first!
Jason’s Pick: Ross Stripling
Ross Stripling gets an incredible matchup tonight against the San Francisco Giants, a team that already traded for an additional outfielder (Kevin Pillar) in order to, along with his insane defensive skill set, boost the batting order. Stripling is currently, through one start, in the top five percent of the league in exit velocity, and his hard hit percentage is in the top 75th percentile, as well. His fastball doesn’t seem to be as fast as it was last year, but apparently the placement is working. In his only game, he surrendered three hits in a little over five innings, striking out five batters. He has a solid K-rate, and the Giants are not going to score, as they never do. Stripling surrenders far too many home runs per nine innings, but forget about that tonight, as the Giants are not a power-hitting team. He is in a great spot, and he makes for the best pitching option available, if price is not considered.
Justin’s Reaction: The Dodgers are always difficult because they are extremely strict with their starting pitchers. He only threw 76 pitches in his first game, but he does come with plenty of upside.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Kike Hernandez
When the Los Angeles Dodgers are facing off against a left-handed pitcher, I’m likely playing Kike Hernandez. He has been at his best against lefties throughout his career, posting a .268 average with a .492 slugging percentage and a .848 OPS against them, as opposed to a .223/.385/.676 line against right-handed pitchers. He gets a matchup against Derek Holland, who has been a significantly worse option against right-handed batters throughout his career, allowing them to hit for a .266 average with a .470 slugging percentage and a .346 wOBA. Hernandez is expected to lead off for the Dodgers, and he makes an elite option, even for his high price tag tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: Add in that Hernandez is a second baseman, and he is easily the best options at his position. If the salary space is available, roster him.
Jason’s Pick: Tyler Flowers
Is Tyler Flowers one of the best available infieders tonight? No. Is Tyler Flower one of the best available catching options tonight? Absolutely! Jon Lester is on the mound for the Chicago Cubs tonight, which is not a great matchup for Flowers as far as talent level is concerned, but Lester is a lefty, and Flowers crushes left-handed pitching. Last season, he hit .348 with an outstanding 4.3 soft hit percentage. That is compared to a .184 batting average with a mediocre 15.5 soft hit percentage against right-handed pitching. Flowers is not hitting in an ideal spot in the batting order, but his price tag is low, and his ISO differential is currently sitting at 0.178, as well as a 0.218 wOBA differential, which is the best for any catcher taking the field tonight. Flowers is a fantastic tournament option.
Justin’s Reaction: Flowers is a player that I love against left-handed pitching. Great recommendation.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: J.D. Martinez
If I’m paying up for someone tonight, it will likely be J.D. Martinez. He was an elite option against right-handed pitching last season, posting a .329 average with a .644 slugging percentage and a 1.051 OPS against them. He also hit 35 of his 43 home runs against righties. Tonight, he gets an elite matchup against Marco Estrada, who allowed a 1.8 HR/9 last season. While he’ll be throwing in a pitcher-friendly stadium, I’m expecting the Boston Red Sox to find plenty of home run opportunities. If I’m banking on one player for Boston to hit that home run, it’s going to be Martinez. His upside is unmatched in this matchup. The only thing that could make it better would be weather blowing out, as the stadium does not favor hitters.
Jason’s Reaction: I agree that Martinez is a great option tonight, but his super high price tag throws me off. It is generally beneficial to ignore hitters when their price tags are on the rise in the beginning of the season, as hot streaks mean basically nothing early.
Jason’s Pick: Shin-Soo Choo
Shin-Soo Choo started the season off slow, but in his last game against the Houston Astros, he picked up two extra-base hits, and his price tag has not adjusted yet. Last season, Choo had a hard hit rate of right around 40 percent, but to open this season, that number is up to 60 percent through a few games. This indicates that Choo is seeing the ball well right now, and his bat speed is where it needs to be, but he is getting unlucky. Players that are getting unlucky in the beginning of the season are exactly who fantasy owners should be targeting. On top of that, Gerrit Cole is on the mound for the Astros tonight, and Choo has a fantastic 0.119 ISO differential and 0.094 wOBA differential against right-handed pitching, as he hits from the left side of the plate. Choo is an elite option tonight for a moderate price tag.
Justin’s Reaction: I don’t really love attacking Cole, but using a one-off isn’t a bad idea, I suppose. Choo can be considered, but I wouldn’t use too many Rangers.
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