Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Houston Astros
It’s the third day in the row where we have the Houston Astros as the “Chalk Stack,” but they are far and away the top offense tonight. Houston featured one of the best offenses in the MLB in 2018, ranking sixth in the league in runs scored, 10th in home runs, and seventh in team batting average and OPS. They were at their best away from home, where they hit .262 with a .446 slugging percentage and a .777 OPS. They also averaged 5.2 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game on the road. The Astros are -204 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.4 runs.
Houston gets a matchup against Mike Minor, who featured plenty of ups and downs last season. He posted a 12-8 record with a 4.19 ERa and a 1.12 WHIP over 28 starts. He also allowed a 1.4 HR/9, while recording a 7.6 K/9 over 157 innings. Surprisingly, Minor was a reverse splits pitcher last season, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .257 average with a .527 slugging percentage and a .334 wOBA. That hasn’t truly been the case over his career, though, as he’s allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .243/.424/.313 line since 2010. In his only start this season, Minor allowed six earned runs (one home run) over 4.2 innings against the Chicago Cubs. Houston is a team filled with players that hit left-handed pitching well, and they will continue to be the highest owned stack on the smaller slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox featured one of the premier offenses in the MLB last season, leading the league in runs scored, team batting average, and OPS in 2018. They also ranked ninth in the MLB in home runs. The Red Sox were at their best in Boston last season, but they still posted a .255 average with a .426 slugging percentage and a .756 OPS on the road. They averaged 5.0 runs and 3.2 extra-base hits per game on the road, as well. Tonight, the Red Sox are -132 favorites in a game set at 8.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 4.6 runs tonight.
They get an elite matchup against Marco Estrada, who posted a 7-14 record with a 5.64 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP over 28 starts in 2018. He also allowed a 1.8 HR/9, while recording a low 6.5 K/9 over 143.2 innings. He was at his worst against right-handed batters last season, allowing them to hit for a .300 average with a .562 slugging percentage and a .389 wOBA. He also allowed lefties to hit for a .229/.467/.322 line, though. Estrada’s ERA ballooned to 7.17 over the second half of the season. He also allowed all of his opponents to hit for a .278/.562/.385 line in the second half of the season, and he’s only getting worse later in his career. Boston comes with elite power in this matchup, even playing in a pitcher friendly stadium. They’re an elite stacking option tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
J.D. Martinez
As mentioned above, Marco Estrada has struggled against right-handed power batters, and Martinez may be the best one in the MLB. Last season, he posted .329 average with a .644 slugging percentage and a .315 ISO against righties. The only downfall in this matchup is the pitcher friendly stadium.
Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber will be playing in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums for left-handed power hitters tonight. He enters this game with 0.046 wOBA and 0.172 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, as well. Schwarber has also hit 68 of his 74 career home runs against righties.
Tyler Flowers
Flowers could go overlooked because of his position, but he has been an elite hitter against left-handed pitching. He enters this game with 0.218 wOBA and 0.178 ISO differentials against lefties. He also posted an elite .606 slugging percentage against them last season. This is far from a pitcher friendly stadium, as well.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jameson Taillon
Taillon is coming off of his best MLB season, posting a 14-10 record with a 3.20 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. HE also posted an 8.4 K/9, while holding his opponents to only a 0.9 HR/9. He added a fifth pitch to his arsenal last season, and he said he feels significantly more confident in that slider this season. He threw it at a 30.1% rate in his first game after throwing it only 18.2% of the time last season. That slider should help Taillon miss more bats, resulting in a higher K-rate. Tonight, he’s a -105 favorite in a game set at 7.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied total of only 3.5 runs.
Taillon gets a great matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking third last on the slate in team wOBA. Taillon was significantly better against right-handed batters last season, holding them to a .222 average with a .366 slugging percentage and a .264 wOBA. He’ll benefit from playing in an extremely pitcher friendly stadium tonight, and Taillon makes one of the best option on the smaller slate. He can be considered in all leagues.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Robbie Grossman
Grossman is coming off of a solid season, hitting for a .273 average over 129 games. He struggled a bit with power, recording only a .384 slugging percentage and a .751 OPS. He has been better as a right-handed batter, but that may not matter tonight. He owns a 36% hard-hit rate over his last five games, as well.
Grossman gets a plus matchup against Nathan Eovaldi, who struggled against left-handed batters in 2018. In those games, he allowed lefties to hit for a .251 average with a .426 slugging percentage and a .318 wOBA. Grossman is expected to lead off for the Oakland A’s, and that’s what this play is about. He’s a cheap way to get the top of this order, adding to his floor and ceiling combination.
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