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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Zack Wheeler
Is Zack Wheeler back? That’s the big question, and I believe the answer is yes. While his ERA sits at 4.85 on the season, his xFIP (3.86) is nearly a full run lower, while his SIERA sits at 4.22. He has also posted a 2.25 ERA over his last three starts, suggesting his early struggles could be over with. Wheeler owns a dominant 26% strikeout rate to go along with a 9.9% swinging strike rate in 2019. He has also allowed a low 26.3% hard-hit rate throughout the season, while holding his opponents to only a 30% fly ball rate. With that being said, he has allowed a 12.5% HR/FB, which is only slightly higher than his career average, although significantly higher than his 8.1% rate last season. The velocity of each of his pitches is up at least 1 MPH from last season, excluding his splitter, which he rarely throws. The only issue in this game is that he gets a matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, who simply don’t strikeout that much. I’m not expecting a ton of strikeouts on this slate, though, and very few players come with the upside of Wheeler. He’s a -153 favorite in a game set at only 8 runs, giving the Reds an implied run total of only 3.6 runs. Wheeler can be used in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I’m very hesitant to declare Wheeler a great option in ALL leagues tonight, but he is definitely worthy of tournament consideration.
Jason’s Pick: John Means
John Means is a very interesting tournament option tonight against the Chicago White Sox. He has been great this season, currently sporting a 1.74 ERA, 3-2 record, and 1.11 WHIP. His K/9 is 10.1, and his HR/9 is only slightly above 1. Most importantly, the White Sox strikeout at one of the highest rates in the league, and that rate only goes up slightly against left-handed pitching (0.275 K/AB against LHP, 0.272 K/AB against RHP). Lefties also tend to neutralize the White Sox power hitters, as they are collectively hitting 0.015 HR/AB against LHP and 0.048 HR/AB against RHP. Means is relatively cheap tonight, and he comes with a ton of upside. The weather should help, as well, as it is expected to be under 50 degrees, and the wind is blowing to right field, but only minorly. On top of all that, Means has a solid average exit velocity per batted ball of 88 MPH over his last 15 days to compliment his 38% ground ball rate. Means is not the sexiest option on the board, but the stars are aligning statistically.
Justin’s Reaction: I feel this is going to be a difficult night to find strikeouts, making Means one of the top tournament arms. He’ll likely go overlooked, but a strong recommendation to start the article.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Corey Seager
The Los Angeles Dodgers’ players enter this slate with ridiculous price tags, likely because they will be playing in the San Francisco Giants’ hitter-friendly stadium. Corey Seager’s numbers don’t pop off the page over his last 10 games, as he’s hitting .257 with a .343 slugging percentage and a .676 OPS. He owns three extra-base hits and three RBIs over that span, as well. With that being said, he has posted 42% hard-hit and 54% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, suggesting he could see positive regression shortly. He gets a matchup against Jeff Samardzija, who has looked outstanding this season [see below], but he also owns a 4.74 xFIP and a 4.61 SIERA in those games. He has also allowed a 45.9% fly ball rate to go along with a low 8.8% HR/FB, which could see regression as the season progresses. It isn’t the best hitter environment, so I may lean Seager only in tournaments.
Jason’s Reaction: Do I sense a Los Angeles Dodgers’ stack recommendation forming? Probably.
Jason’s Pick: Justin Turner
Jeff Samardzija is having a solid start to his 2019 campaign, posting a 3.00 ERA, 2-1 record, and 1.15 WHIP. However, the Los Angeles Dodgers have a very dangerous lineup, and Justin Turner is far too cheap tonight. He is hitting third, and his price tag is barley over $3.5K. The weather in San Francisco is relatively decent for hitters, and Turner, over the last 15 days, has been crushing the ball. He has an average batted ball distance of 241 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of just under 100 MPH(!), and a 60% hard hit rate. His 50% ground ball rate is the only thing holding back his true potential. Luckily, his recent batted ball luck indicator suggests he has been rather unlucky at the plate and should only get better. The Dodgers are expected to score over four runs tonight, and Turner will be part of the reason why, if that happens. Roster him in all leagues.
Justin’s Reaction: The Dodgers make a lot of sense for their price tags, and Turner will be a major part of their offense. Count me in.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Andrew Benintendi
Andrew Benintendi has found quite a bit of success at home this season, where he’s hitting .282 with a .487 slugging percentage and an .891 OPS through 11 games. He owns six extra-base hits (one home run) and three RBIs in those games, as well. Furthermore, Benintendi hasn’t flashed stolen base potential at home this season, but we know he has it, adding to his upside. He has posted 55% hard hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, and this is a hitter-friendly stadium for him to find success in. He gets a matchup against Frankie Montas, who has thrown well this season, but has struggled in two road starts. Benintendi enters this game with 0.05 wOBA and 0.031 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, and he’s expected to lead off for what should be one of the better offenses on the slate. He can be considered in all leagues.
Jason’s Reaction: I considered recommending Benintendi before opting for Blackmon. He is a great option in all leagues, for sure.
Jason’s Pick: Charlie Blackmon
Zach Davies has been surprisingly effective since the beginning of the season, and the Colorado Rockies are travelling away from Coors Field tonight, but this has all the indications of a trap. The Rockies are still expected to score 4.3 runs via Vegas, and Milwaukee is almost as hitter-friendly as Colorado. Blackmon enters tonight in the leadoff spot with a 0.092 ISO differential. The weather in Milwaukee never changes, as it is a dome, which is a major plus tonight. Most areas of the United States are dealing with cold weather. Over his last 15 days, Blackmon has an average batted ball distance of 211 feet, an average exit velocity on those batted balls of 91 MPH, and a 40% hard hit rate. He has home run upside, but he hits more for doubles. Add in some stolen base potential, and despite his high price tag, Blackmon is an elite tournament option tonight. Oh, and if Davies is generally seen as a great pitching option tonight, which is possible, Blackmon will be under-owned, which is good news for tournament owners.
Justin’s Reaction: I don’t love taking Blackmon away from home, but he’s moving to another hitter-friendly stadium in Milwaukee. I’m fine with him in tournaments, but I may shy away in cash games.
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