Welcome everyone to Ben’s Pitching Preview! This season I will be getting back to my roots and focusing on my top SP options for each slate. After all, a SP breakdown was my first ever regular article on this site when I started providing content many years ago.
Our Core Plays have been great to start the season! You can pick up a package here.
Let’s get into it!
Tyler Glasnow
It’s becoming an article tradition that I write up Glasnow every five days, and that won’t change on Wednesday vs the Oakland A’s. This matchup profiles similar to his last outing against the Blue Jays in my opinion. There are a lot of strikeouts to be had, but they come with decent pop. Since the start of 2019 the projected A’s lineup owns a combined ISO over .200 vs right-handed pitching. But, that ISO comes with six players over a 22% strikeout rate. It’s a boom/bust spot, and while the A’s are good breaking ball hitters, he has the stuff to mow them down. I do expect him to be a popular play tonight, and am comfortable rostering him in all formats.
Alex Wood
There are three really good plays at the top tonight — Glasnow, Carlos Rodon and Alex Wood. I think you can make a genuine case for all three, but I’m leaning towards Wood as number two against the Colorado Rockies. Wood was a fantastic pitcher a few seasons ago, that has dealt with a variety of injuries since. In two starts this season, he looks as healthy as he has in years. He’s throwing all of his pitcher, his velocity is upper-90’s and on par with that we saw from him in the past and he has gotten up to almost 100 pitches in a start. Colorado is a tea we like to attack away from Coors. Since the start of 2019, they have the lowest wRC+ as a team on the road (74) and it comes with 27% strikeouts. If Wood is indeed back, this $8,300 price tag is too cheap and I expect him to be over $9,000 soon if he throws well again this evening.
Alex Cobb
Cobb is actually one of my favorite options tonight. I’m hoping we see a low OWN% projection on him prior to lock. He’s experiencing a renaissance season in LA, and I think we can attribute it to some pitch mix changes. In 2020, Cobb was pretty average, but through three starts in 2021 his K% has jumped from 17% to 31%. He may not end up settling above 30%, but the swinging strikes have taken a huge leap as well leading me to believe this could be legitimate. He’s cut way down on his fastball usage, and making a major change like that can certainly unlock some new swing and miss ability. Very small sample, but the Rangers currently lead the MLB in strikeout rate vs RHP at a horrific 31%. I’m a believer that his new version of Cobb has upside. If so, he is underpriced for this good of a match-up.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
