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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have found plenty of success early this season, ranking 10th in the MLB in runs scored, 12th in home runs, third in team batting average, and second in OPS through 27 games. Atlanta featured a better offense at home in 2018, where they posted a .255 average with a .404 slugging percentage and a .730 OPS. They also averaged 4.8 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game at home last season. The Braves are -161 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.1 runs.
Atlanta gets a matchup against Nick Margevicius, who has thrown well early this season. Through five starts, he owns a 2-2 record with a 3.60 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. He could see a bit of regression as the season moves forward, though, as he possesses a 4.27 xFIP to go along with a 4.19 SIERA. This is Margevicius’ rookie season, so his numbers are limited, but he has posted a 22.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 9.0% swinging strike rate. He has also held his opponents to 36.8% fly ball and 12% HR/FB rates. Margevicius has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing left-handed batters to hit for a .296 average with a .519 slugging percentage and a .274 wOBA. Five games is far too small of a sample size to truly trust, meaning we can consider both left- and right-handed batters against Margevicius in this game. The Braves make a safe stacking option against the young pitcher tonight, but they also comes with tremendous upside.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox have struggled to produce offensively through 28 games in 2019. They currently rank 22nd in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average, 24th in home runs, and 21st in OPS. They have only played 42.9% of their games at home, though, where they were significantly better in 2018. Last season, the Red Sox hit .282 with a .482 slugging percentage and an .829 OPS in Boston. They also averaged 5.8 runs and 4.1 extra-base hits at home in 2018. Boston is a -135 favorite in a game set at 9 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 4.9 runs.
The Red Sox get a matchup against Frankie Montas, who owns a 4-1 record with a 3.10 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP through five starts. With that being said, he owns a 4.09 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP on the road this season. Montas does own a solid 3.68 xFIP with a 3.85 SIERA early this season, as well. His strikeout rate is up a bit to 21.9% this season, while his swinging strike rate sits at 10.7%. He has held his opponents to a ridiculous 24.1% fly ball rate, although he has allowed a 20% HR/FB rate. Oddly enough, both of these numbers should see regression to the mean as he gets more starts under his belt. Montas struggled against everyone in 2018. He allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .305 average with a .523 slugging percentage and a .375 wOBA. He also allowed righties to hit for a .276/.378/.309 line last season. Furthermore, Montas allowed his opponents to post a .289/.422/.337 line on the road. The Red Sox will likely see positive offensive regression as the season continues, while Montas could see some regression after a strong start to the season. It’s a perfect mix, especially with the latter struggling on the road. The Red Sox make another safe stack that also comes with solid upside on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
New York Mets
The New York Mets have found quite a bit of success through the 2019 season, ranking 11th in the MLB in runs scored, 21st in home runs, ninth in team batting average, and 15th in OPS. The Mets struggled at home last season, where they hit only .215 with a .354 slugging percentage and a .646 OPS. They also averaged only 3.4 runs and 2.4 extra-base hits per game at home. This is a new offense, though, and they feature more consistency and power throughout their lineup. Tonight, New York is a -153 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.5 runs.
Tanner Roark will be taking the mound for the Cincinnati Reds tonight. He has posted a 1-1 record with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP through five starts this season. That doesn’t tell the full story, though, as he also owns a 4.59 xFIP and a 4.75 SIERA in 2019. Roark owns a respectable 21.4% strikeout rate, although he only owns a 6.4% swinging strike rate. He has held his opponents to 32.4% fly ball and 8.3% HR/FB rates, which are relatively close to his career averages. Most importantly, Roark has allowed a ridiculous 42.7% hard hit rate this season, while also posted only an 8% soft hit rate. He posted similar numbers against both left- and right-handed batters last season. He allowed lefties to hit for a .265 average with a .434 slugging percentage and a .332 wOBA, while righties posted a .260/.411/.307 line against him in 2018. The total of this game is set extremely low, which could result in the Mets going overlooked, but they should find plenty of success in this matchup.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Corey Seager
Seager continues to “struggle,” but he owns 42% hard-hit and 54% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also been at his best against right-handed pitching, posting 0.099 wOBA and 0.2 ISO differentials against righties. The only downfall in this play is the ballpark factor from playing in San Francisco.
Marcell Ozuna
Ozuna gets a tough matchup against Patrick Corbin, but he enters this game with 0.064 wOBA and 0.103 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He has also posted three home runs over his last 10 games, while recording 62% hard-hit and 51% fly ball rates to go along with a 98 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Mitch Moreland
Moreland will benefit from playing in Boston tonight. He has been at his best against right-handed pitching, as he owns 0.055 wOBA and 0.09 ISO differentials against righties. He also owns 44% hard-hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Yasiel Puig
Puig gets a tough matchup against Zack Wheeler, but he’s a sneaky option for a home run tonight. He enters this game with 40% hard-hit and 52% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Puig has also been a more consistent and more powerful option against right-handed pitching.
Matt Chapman
Chapman has been better against right-handed pitching, but he still posted a .288 average with a .450 slugging percentage against lefties in 2018. He also enters this game with 41% hard-hit and 52% fly ball rates to go along with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Chapman will benefit from playing in Boston tonight, as well.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
John Means
Means has found plenty of success through seven games (three starts) early in the 2019 season. He owns a 3-2 record with a 1.74 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. His advanced metrics aren’t as appealing, though, as he owns a 4.18 xFIP and a 3.66 SIERA. With that being said, Means comes with tremendous upside on a nightly basis because of his 26.7% strikeout and 15.3% swinging strike rates. He has allowed his opponents to post a 41.8% fly ball rate in 2019, but he has also held them to an 8.7% HR/FB rate. Furthermore, Means has allowed only a 16.4% hard hit rate this season. Means is a +116 underdog in a game set at 8.5 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of 4.5 runs tonight.
He gets a matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat and fifth last in team wOBA. They feature an offense that has struggled to hit for power against left-handed pitching, reducing the risk of Means. He has limited innings in the MLB, but he has held left-handed batters to a .238 average with a .333 slugging percentage and a .282 wOBA. This is an outstanding matchup for Means, and while he will see regression at some point in 2019, that may not come tonight. He likely isn’t safe enough to be considered in cash games, but he makes a strong option in tournaments.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Justin Turner
Turner’s numbers don’t jump off on paper recently, as he’s only hitting .212 with a .242 slugging percentage and a .592 OPS over his last 10 games. He also only owns one extra-base hit and one RBI over that span. With that being said, Turner has posted 60% hard-hit and 33% fly ball rates with a 98 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, suggesting he’ll breakout soon. Turner was at his best against left-handed pitching in 2018, but he still posted a .301 average with a .488 slugging percentage and an .872 OPS against right-handed pitching last season.
He gets a solid matchup against Jeff Samardzija, who has performed well this season, but is expected to see regression as the season progresses. Last season, Samardzija struggled more against left-handed batters, but he still allowed righties to hit for a .248 average with a .356 slugging percentage and a .312 wOBA. Turner is expected to hit third in the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and the majority of their team is underpriced on this slate. Turner can be considered in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
