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Pitcher
Justin’s Pick: Max Scherzer
I’m also going to play one of the highest priced pitchers on the slate in Max Scherzer, although he has struggled at times this season. He owns a 1-3 record with a 4.45 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP through five starts. With that being said, Scherzer also owns a 2.55 xFIP and a 2.75 SIERA, suggesting he’ll see positive regression soon. He owns an elite 32.6% strikeout rate to go along with a 16.3% swinging strike rate this season. Scherzer gets a plus matchup against the San Diego Padres, who rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Keep in mind, Scherzer will be pitching at home, where he owns 26 DK points per game this season, as opposed to only 14.8 DK points per game on the road. Scherzer is a -191 favorite in a game set at only 7 runs, and he’s an elite option in all leagues tonight. For what it’s worth, he’s also entirely too cheap after being $12K in his last game.
Jason’s Reaction: I agree that Scherzer is too cheap right now, but if I had to choose between the two due to salary constraints, I’m leaning Paxton. If salary allows, roster them both.
Jason’s Pick: James Paxton
This is the easiest recommendation of the season thus far. James Paxton gets an elite matchup against the very-below-average San Francisco Giants’ offense. In his last two games, Paxton posted 14 innings pitched, no earned runs, and 24 strikeouts. The Giants do not strike out at a particularly high rate, but neither do the New York Yankees or Kansas City Royals (Paxton’s last two opponents). In fact, the Royals are the best team in the league at not striking out. Paxton is averaging 11.9 K/9, and his implied runs allowed tonight are 3.1. The weather will also be usually cold in San Francisco. Over the last 15 days, Paxton’s pitch speed is up almost 1 MPH, his hard hit rate is down 12%, his average batted ball distance is down 13 feet, and his average exit velocity on those batted balls is down 3 MPH from his 12-month averages. The Yankees’ stud should be closer to $10.5K or higher right now. Take advantage of his moderate price tag.
Justin’s Reaction: Paxton is probably my favorite pitcher on the slate. Elite recommendation here.
Infielder
Justin’s Pick: Eric Sogard
Eric Sogard has only played in seven games this season, but he’s hitting .367 with a .533 slugging percentage and a .940 OPS in those contests. He also owns three extra-base hits (one home run), six RBIs, and two steals over that span. Sogard has posted a 44% hard-hit rate and 94 MPH exit velocity since joining the Toronto Blue Jays.. He gets a plus matchup against Mike Fiers in Toronto, and Sogard brings a 0.071 ISO differential against right-handed pitching into this game. He’s expected to lead off for the Blue Jays, and there simply isn’t anyone better for his price tag. Sogard is far too cheap for his recent production and position in the lineup.
Jason’s Reaction: Wow, we are both on fire with these recommendations tonight. I completely agree here.
Jason’s Pick: Jeimer Candelario
Carlos Rodon has been an extremely consistent pitching option to start the 2019 campaign, sporting an ERA of 2.89, a 3-2 record, and 35 strikeouts. His WHIP sits at 1.11. That said, Jeimer Candelario provides far too much value at the leadoff spot for the Detroit Tigers tonight to avoid him. The third baseman is cheap, and his splits against left-handed pitching are solid. He enters tonight’s game with 0.092 ISO and 0.087 wOBA differentials. In the last 15 days, he has an average batted ball distance of 204 feet, and average exit velocity of 90 MPH, a fly ball rate of 40%, a line drive rate of 30%, and a hard hit rate of 36%. Most importantly, he has stolen base upside. In his last 10 games, his batting average is up to .308 from his season-long .239. In his last three games, he has 31 fantasy points. With how low his price tag currently is, he makes for a great one-off option to thwart the higher price tags of some of the more powerful hitters tonight.
Justin’s Reaction: You’re going to have to find value hitters if you want to pay up at pitcher tonight, and Candelario is a strong option.
Outfielder
Justin’s Pick: Nicholas Castellanos
Nicholas Castellanos hasn’t been playing particularly well recently, posting a .233 average with a .395 slugging percentage and a .656 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (one home run) and five RBIs over that span. Castellanos does come with home run potential, though, as he owns 50% hard hit and 60% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a plus matchup against Carlos Rodon, who is far from a bad pitcher, but Castellanos has been outstanding against left-handed pitching. In 2018, he posted a .381 average with a .571 slugging percentage and a 1.004 OPS against lefties. Castellanos is expected to hit second in the Detroit Tigers lineup, and he makes an outstanding option in all leagues tonight.
Jason’s Reaction: I never say no to rostering Castellanos against left-handed arms. I do say no to calling him Nicholas, though.
Jason’s Pick: Curtis Granderson
Curtis Granderson is a very similar recommendation to Jeimer Candelario, but with a little bit more power and less consistency. Jerad Eickhoff has struggled to start the 2019 season, but he is a decent pitching option. Granderson, however, has great splits against right-handed pitching, and he should leadoff for the Miami Marlins. His ISO and wOBA differentials are 0.124 and 0.073 respectively. Much like Candelario, he does have minor stolen base upside. In the last 15 days, his average batted ball distance is 225 feet, his average exit velocity on those batted balls is 92 MPH, his fly ball rate is 48%, and his hard hit rate is 40%. His recent batted ball luck suggests he has been unlucky at the plate, and his price tag on DraftKings shows that. He is hitting in a very hitter-friendly stadium tonight in Philadelphia, and the home run potential is there. Roster Granderson in deeper tournaments, as a one-off outfield option with a value price tag.
Justin’s Reaction: Granderson is another cheap player, who can be considered. I don’t ever love playing him, but this is a smart recommendation on this slate.
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