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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins have found some offensive success early this season, ranking 14th in the MLB in runs scored, ninth in home runs, fifth in team batting average, and third in OPS. Minnesota was a better offense at home in 2018, where they posted a .261 average with a .429 slugging percentage and a .760 OPS. The Twins also averaged 4.9 runs and 3.3 extra-base hits per game game in Minnesota. They are -186 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.6 runs.
Minnesota gets an elite matchup against Alex Cobb, who has struggled through only two starts this season. He has posted an 0-1 record with an 11.88 ERA and a 1.92 WHIP. He also owns a 4.07 xFIP and a 4.30 SIERA, though, suggesting he’ll see positive regression through more starts. Cobb owns a career-normal 27.3% fly ball rate, while his HR/FB rate sits at 55.6%, which is up 42.3% higher than his career average. That rate is simply unsustainable, especially given the lack of fly balls allowed. With that being said, Cobb only owns a 15% strikeout rate to go along with a 10.1% swinging strike rate, which is well above his career average. Assuming that rate drops a bit, Cobb should continue to allow his opponents to put the ball in play. He struggled against right-handed batters in 2018, allowing them to hit for a .292 average with a .521 slugging percentage and a .359 wOBA. He also allowed lefties to hit for a .276/.442/.330 line last season. The Twins feature a high upside offense, who don’t strikeout at a high rate, and they should find plenty of success against Cobb. His positive regression will have to wait at least one more start.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners have featured the best offense in the MLB early this season, leading the league in runs scored, home runs, and OPS, while also ranking sixth in the league in team batting average. The Mariners struggled in 2018 at home, posting only a .243 average with a .392 slugging percentage and a .693 OPS. They also averaged only 3.7 runs and 2.6 extra-base hits per game at home last season. Seattle feature a new-look offense in 2019, though, where they have found quite a bit of consistency and power, regardless of where they are playing. They are -143 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on this slate at 5.0 runs.
The Mariners get one of the best matchups on the board against Shelby Miller. Through four starts, he owns a 1-1 record with a 7.63 ERA and a 2.22 WHIP. He has also struggled with an 8.09 xFIP and a 7.49 SIERA in 2019. Miller has allowed a 37.7% fly ball rate with a 13.0% HR/FB rate this season. He has also struggled with a ridiculously low 7.3% strikeout rate, while his swinging strike rate sits at only 5.0%. Miller will continue to struggle as long as he fails to contain his opponents power, while allowing an elite contact rate. Throughout his career, he has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .269 average with a .435 slugging percentage and a .338 wOBA. With that being said, Miller has struggled against everyone in limited innings since the start of the 2018 season. I don’t truly believe Miller is an MLB-level pitcher anymore, and stacking one of the best offenses in the MLB against him is an elite route tonight.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox have seen plenty of ups and downs through 23 games, as they rank 21st in the MLB in runs scored, 22nd in home runs, 15th in team batting average, and 18th in OPS. Chicago was a slightly worse offense at home in 2018, where they posted a .248 average with a .399 slugging percentage and a .706 OPS. The White Sox also averaged 4.0 runs and 2.8 extra-base hits per game at home last season. Tonight, they are -129 favorites in a game set at 9 runs, and they own an implied run total of 4.8 runs.
Daniel Norris will be taking the mound for the Detroit Tigers. He has found success early this season through four games, although he only has one start. Overall, he owns a 1-0 record with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP. He has struggled with a 4.91 xFIP and a 4.59 SIERA, though, suggesting he’ll see regression as he gets more innings under his belt. He has allowed a 42.5% fly ball rate to go along with a 17.6% HR/FB rate in 2019. Norris’ strikeout rate is down to 18.2% this season, as well. His swinging strike rate is also down significantly to only 6.7% in 2019. Throughout his career, he has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .273 average with a .442 slugging percentage and a .333 wOBA. He has also allowed lefties to hit for a .256/.491/.350 line. Chicago makes a strong option in this matchup, and they may go overlooked because of the large slate.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Rowdy Tellez
Tellez has been at his best against right-handed pitching, recording 0.227 wOBA and 0.218 ISO differentials against righties. He has found success recently, as well, posting 52% hard-hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also owns two home runs over his last four games.
Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins will benefit from playing in Philadelphia’s hitter friendly stadium tonight. He has also posted 48% hard-hit and 45% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, Hoskins has been a reverse splits hitter, recording 0.08 wOBA and 0.165 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Justin Smoak
Smoak is another Toronto player who has been playing extremely well recently. He has elite metrics, posting 52% hard-hit and 64% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also enters this game with 0.082 wOBA and 0.11 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Matt Carpenter
It’s shocking that Carpenter has gone six consecutive games without a home run, as he owns 41% hard-hit and 58% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also posted a .268 average with a .548 slugging percentage and a .280 ISO against right-handed pitching in 2018.
Yasiel Puig
Puig has quietly posted strong numbers against right-handed pitching, recording 0.094 wOBA and 0.094 ISO differentials against righties. He only owns a 37% hard-hit and 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, but he also owns a 54% fly ball rate over that span. He’s also hitting fourth in the Cincinnati Reds offense.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Martin Perez
Perez has featured a few ups and downs this season, but he owns a 2-0 record with a 5.31 ERA and a 1.77 WHIP through five games (two starts). He has struggled a bit with a 4.87 xFIP and a 5.03 SIERA in 2019. Perez has also held his opponents to 32.3% fly ball and 10% HR/FB rates this season. Most importantly, he has seen his strikeout rate increase to 20.2%, while his swinging strike rate sits at 11.8% this season. Perez is a -188 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of only 4.0 runs tonight.
He gets a great matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who as a slightly above average team in terms of strikeouts per at-bat, while also featuring a slightly above average offense in terms of team wOBA. Last season, Perez has better against left-handed batters, but he still allowed them to hit for a .271 average with a .459 slugging percentage and a .317 wOBA. While Baltimore doesn’t feature as bad of an offense as many like to think, they still could struggle away from home in somewhat of a pitcher friendly stadium. Perez isn’t anything more than a high upside salary relief option in tournaments.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Brian Anderson
Anderson has been playing relatively well recently, hitting .256 with a .410 slugging percentage and a .766 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns four extra-base hits (one home run), two RBIs, and two steals over that span. Anderson has scored fantasy points in each of his last 10 games, as well, while scoring double-digit fantasy points in three of those games. He has posted a 54% hard-hit rate with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Anderson also brings 0.053 wOBA and 0.026 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.
He gets a great matchup against Jerad Eickhoff, who only owns two starts this season. Eickhoff has found success against right-handed batters throughout his career, though, allowing them to hit for a .219 average with a .351 slugging percentage and a .268 wOBA. Anderson is hitting third in the Miami Marlins offense, and he will benefit from playing in a hitter friendly stadium tonight. Anderson is a strong option in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
