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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox offense has been one of the biggest disappointments in the MLB this season. Through 24 games, they rank 22nd in the league in runs scored, team batting average, and OPS, while also ranking 23rd in home runs. They will be playing at home, where they were at their best in 2018. Boston hit for a .282 average with a .482 slugging percentage and an .829 OPS at home last season. They also averaged 5.8 runs and 4.1 extra-base hits per game in those contests in 2018. Tonight, the Red Sox are -211 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.7 runs.
Boston gets a matchup against Tyson Ross, who has thrown surprisingly well this season. Through four starts, he owns 1-2 record with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. He also owns a 4.33 xFIP and a 4.85 SIERA, suggesting he’ll see a bit of regression through his next few starts. Ross has also struggled with 17.0% strikeout and 8.0% swinging strike rates, allowing his opponents to put the ball in play at a high rate. He has held his opponents to a 25.7% fly ball rate, although he has also struggled with a 21.1% HR/FB rate in 2019. Ross struggled against left-handed batters in 2018, allowing them to hit for a .294 average with a .467 slugging percentage and a .368 wOBA. That hasn’t been the case this season, though, as he has struggled significantly more against right-handed batters. The Red Sox feature elite batters throughout their lineup, and it’s only a matter of time before their offense starts clicking. This is a plus matchup they can take advantage of on a medium sized slate.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Baltimore Orioles
The Baltimore Orioles feature an offense that has been significantly better than advertised prior to the season. They currently rank 16th in the MLB in runs scored and home runs, 18th in team batting average, and 19th in OPS. The Orioles were a better offense at home last season, where they posted a .247 average with a .407 slugging percentage and a .717 OPS. They also averaged 4.2 runs and 2.8 extra-base hits per game at home in 2018. Baltimore is a -118 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they feature an implied run total of 5.0 runs.
The Orioles get an elite matchup against Ervin Santana, who has struggled through only two starts. He has posted a 0-1 record with a 10.39 ERA and a 2.19 WHIP. He has also struggled with an 8.22 xFIP and a 7.20 SIERA in 2019. Santana owns 9.1% strikeout and 5.0% swinging strike rates. Most importantly, he has allowed a ridiculous 52.9% fly ball rate to go along with a 27.8% HR/FB rate this season. While these numbers will surely see positive regression, it shows how bad Santana truly has been. He has struggled against nearly everyone in limited innings since the start of the 2017 season, although he has been worse against left-handed batters in his career. Overall, he has allowed lefties to hit for a .260 average with a .433 slugging percentage and a .330 wOBA. Baltimore is an offense that feature quiet upside, although I’m not entirely sure whether they’ll go overlooked in this matchup on a slate with seven games.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies have seen mixed results early this season, ranking 15th in the MLB in runs scored, team batting average, and OPS, while also ranking 17th in the league in home runs. They were a worse offense on the road last season, posting a .232 average with a .375 slugging percentage and a .688 OPS over 81 games. The Phillies also averaged only 3.8 runs and 2.7 extra-base hits per game away from home in 2018. They are -120 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, though, and they own an implied run total of 5.0 runs on this slate.
Jason Vargas will be taking the mound for the New York Mets tonight. He has struggled through four games (three starts), posting a 1-0 record with a 9.58 ERA and a 2.32 WHIP. He has posted a 7.67 xFIP and a 6.65 SIERA early this season, as well. Vargas has posted a low 10.9% strikeout rate to go along with a 7.2% swinging strike rate this season. He has also allowed 50% fly ball and 15% HR/FB rates through limited innings. In 2018, Vargas allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .284 average with a .511 slugging percentage and a .359 wOBA. He has also allowed all of his opponents to hit for a .362/.660/.459 line this season. Vargas struggles to pitch deep into games, and he will struggle against a powerful Philadelphia offense. There’s no reason to believe he’ll turn his talent around after struggling for quite some time, and the Phillies make a high upside option in tournaments on this slate tonight.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Alex Bregman
Bregman has been at his best against left-handed pitching, but he still posted a .274 average with a .517 slugging percentage and a .243 ISO against righties in 2018. He has also posted 41% hard-hit and 54% fly ball rates with a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a plus matchup against Kohl Stewart, as well.
Michael Ford
Ford has played limited games this season, but he has flashed power. In his five games this season, he owns 53% hard-hit and 38% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity. The sample size of his advanced metrics is a bit too small to trust, but the plus matchup against Felix Pena adds to his potential.
Jason Castro
Castro gets a tough matchup against Justin Verlander, but he enters this game with a 0.154 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. He also bring 85% hard-hit and 57% fly ball rates with a 106 mph exit velocity into this game over the last 15 days. Keep in mind, Castro doesn’t play daily, so those numbers only include his last three games.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Jordan Lyles
Lyles has found plenty of success early this season, posting a 2-0 record with a 0.53 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP through three starts. He owns a 3.78 xFIP and a 3.67 SIERA, suggesting he could see regression through more starts, but I don’t fully expect that to begin in this matchup. Lyles has posted a dominant 29.0% strikeout rate to go along with a 9.3% swinging strike rate. He has struggled with a 43.6% fly ball rate, but has also only allowed a 5.9% HR/FB rate in 2019. Lyles is a -111 favorite in a game set at 8 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4.0 runs tonight.
He gets a matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who rank third last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. With that being said, they also rank in the bottom-three of the slate in team wOBA. In somewhat of limited innings last season, Lyles held left-handed batters to a .185 average with a .301 slugging percentage and a .249 wOBA. He has been a slightly better option against right-handed batters throughout his career, though, making this season a bit interesting. He’s safe because of the matchup at home, but he also comes with solid upside because of his strong command. Lyles is cheap enough to be considered in all leagues tonight.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Chris Davis
Davis is over his early season struggles, as he is hitting .310 with a .621 slugging percentage and a .976 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (two home runs) and eight RBIs over that span, as well. Davis has also posted 40% hard-hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been at his best against right-handed pitching, as well, entering this game with 0.041 wOBA and 0.027 ISO differentials against righties.
Davis gets a great matchup against Ervin Santana, who has been outlined above. He has struggled with the long ball, and Davis is a powerful player, who is a great bet for a home run. I was going to add him to the Home Run Predictor, but I didn’t want to double up on him here. Davis is expected to hit seventh in the Baltimore lineup, and he’s an elite option in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
