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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Washington Nationals
The Washington Nationals have been playing at an above average level early this season, ranking 12th in the MLB in runs scored, 10th in home runs and OPS, and 11th in team batting average. Washington struggled on the road last season, where they posted a .243 average with a .401 slugging percentage and a .724 OPS. They also averaged 4.5 runs and 2.9 extra-base hits per game away from home in 2018. Tonight, they will be playing in the most hitter friendly stadium in the MLB, though. The Nationals are -137 favorites in a game set at 10 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.4 runs.
Washington gets a matchup against Jeff Hoffman, who will be making his 2019 MLB debut tonight. He has struggled throughout his career, posting a 6-9 record with a 5.88 ERA and a 1.59 WHIP through 37 games (23 starts). Hoffman also owns a 5.08 xFIP and 5.06 SIERA throughout his career. He also posted a 7.49 xFIP through three games (two starts) at the Triple-A level this season. Hoff has struggled throughout his career with a 17.3% strikeout rate, while also posting a low 8.1% swinging strike rate. With that being said, he owns a low 36.1% fly ball rate to go along with a 13.7% HR/FB rate through his career. He has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, as well, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .305 average with a .531 slugging percentage and a .390 wOBA. Hoffman has also allowed lefties to hit for a .265/.459/.333 line, though. The Nationals feature a high upside offense, and they should have no problems finding success in this matchup. They will feature a plethora of ownership, but it’s difficult to avoid them in cash games tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox feature roughly an average through 21 games, ranking 16th in the MLB in runs scored and OPS, 15th in home runs, and 13th in team batting average. They were a better team away from home last season, posting a .235 average with a .403 slugging percentage and a .700 OPS. The White Sox also averaged 4.1 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game on the road. Chicago is currently a -137 favorite in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they feature one of the highest implied run totals on the slate at 5.2 runs.
The White Sox get a great matchup against Andrew Cashner tonight. He has struggled through five starts with a 3-1 record, 4.97 ERA, and 1.54 WHIP. He has also posted a 5.52 xFIP and a 5.60 SIERA in those starts. Cashner has also struggled with a 13.6% strikeout rate to go along with a 7.2% swinging strikeout rate. He has only allowed a 34.9% fly ball rate, while also posting a 17.2% HR/FB rate in 2019. Last season, Cashner struggled against nearly everyone. He allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .304 average with a .483 slugging percentage and a .370 wOBA. He also allowed lefties to hit for a .278/.508/.361 line in the same categories. Chicago’s offense is on the rise, and they will benefit from this game being playing in an extremely hitter friendly stadium. They can be considered in both cash games and tournament on this slate.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
New York Mets
The New York Mets have found consistent offensive success thus far throughout the 2019 season. They rank fifth in the MLB in runs scored, 18th in home runs, ninth in team batting average, and 14th in OPS. In 2018, New York looked awful at home, posting a .215 average with a .354 slugging percentage and a .646 OPS. They also averaged only 3.4 runs and 2.4 extra-base hits per game in New York last season. This is a new team from last season, though, and they are -129 favorites i a game set at 8.5 runs. They own an implied run total of 4.6 runs tonight.
Zach Eflin will be taking the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies. He has found some success early on, posting a 2-2 record with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP through four starts. He owns a 3.99 xFIP and a 4.06 SIERA over that span, as well. Eflin’s strikeout rate is up to 21.5% this season, which is a bit higher than his career average (17.5%). He also owns a 9.6% swinging strike rate this season. Eflin enters this game with a 37.9% fly ball rate, while he has struggled with a 20% HR/FB rate this season, as well. He struggled significantly more against left-handed batters in 2018, allowing them to hit for a .286 average with a .496 slugging percentage and a .355 wOBA. Eflin also allowed all of his opponents to hit for a .288/.467/.336 line on the road last season. The Mets have one of the most consistent offenses in the MLB, and they could potentially see added power in this matchup. New York shouldn’t be popular tonight, but they come with tremendous upside against Eflin.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Nolan Arenado
Arenado is an elite player when he’s facing a left-handed pitcher at home. In 2018, he hit .420 with an .898 slugging percentage and a .477 ISO against lefties in Coors. He has also posted 42% hard-hit and 37% fly ball rates with a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Lucas Duda
Duda has also caught fire recently, recording 52% hard-hit and 64% fly ball rates to go along with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also enters this game with 0.093 wOBA and 0.169 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching, although the Tampa Bay Rays are using today as a bullpen game.
Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins has been a reverse splits hitter, and he bring 0.068 wOBA and 0.154 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He owns 40% hard-hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. While I like Zack Wheeler tonight, Hoskins is a high upside home run threat.
Michael Conforto
Conforto enters this game with a .264 average, .505 slugging percentage, and .241 ISO against right-handed pitching in his career. He only owns a 35% hard-hit rate over the last 15 days, but he also owns a 64% fly ball rate and a 92 mph exit velocity over that span. He’s also hitting fourth in the Mets lineup.
Justin Smoak
Smoak gets a plus matchup against Jeff Samardzija tonight, and he brings 0.075 wOBA and 0.109 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He also brings 54% hard-hit and 61% fly ball rates with a 96 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Smoak owns three home runs over his last four games, as well.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Zack Wheeler
Wheeler has struggled early this season, recording a 1-2 record with a 6.35 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP through four starts. He also owns a 4.78 xFIP and 5.11 SIERA, though, which is far from ideal, but suggests some potential positive regression within his next few starts. Wheeler has posted a 21.6% strikeout rate with a 8.9% swinging strike percentage this season, as well. He has held his opponents to a 31.8% fly ball rate, while also holding them to a 14.3% HR/FB rate. Tonight, Wheeler is a -129 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of only 4 runs.
He gets a plus matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking as a slightly above average offense in team wOBA. Wheeler found more success against right-handed batters last season, holding them to a .212 average with a .286 slugging percentage and a .245 wOBA. He held his opponents to a .179/.253/.220 line over the second half of last season, and I’m expecting Wheeler to find form sooner rather than later. He may be a bit too risky to be considered in cash games, but he’s a strong salary relief option in tournaments.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Robinson Cano
Cano has struggled at times this season, but he’s finally heating up. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .275 with a .475 slugging percentage and a .785 OPS. He also owns six extra-base hits (one home run) and five RBIs over that span. He has posted 60% hard-hit and 34% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Cano has been at his best against right-handed pitching, posting 0.01 wOBA and 0.136 ISO differentials against righties.
He gets a plus matchup against Zach Eflin, who has been outlined above. Cano is expected to hit third in the Mets lineup, and we’re already aware I love their offense on this slate. It’s a bit surprising that Cano’s price tag is still under $4K, but we need to take advantage of that while it’s still happening. He’s a player that can be considered in all leagues.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
