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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies are finally playing games at home, and they are starting to heat up offensively. With that being said, they still rank 24th in the MLB in runs scored and team batting average and 25th in home runs and OPS through 22 games. Colorado was a significantly better offense at home in 2018, though, where they posted a .287 average with a .503 slugging percentage and an .852 OPS. The Rockies also averaged 5.5 runs and 3.9 extra-base hits per game at home last season. Tonight, they are -117 favorites in a game set at 11 runs, giving them the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.7 runs.
Colorado gets a matchup against Jeremy Hellickson, who has thrown well early this season. Through three games (two starts), he owns a 2-0 record with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. He also owns a 5.91 xFIP and a 6.36 SIERA, though, suggesting he’ll see plenty of regression as the season continues. Hellickson has also looked outstanding with a 31.8% fly ball rate and a 7.1% HR/FB rate, which are both significantly lower than his career averages, and he could also see regression there, as well. He has also posted a low strikeout rate of 10.3% and a swinging strike rate of only 3.7%, suggesting he’ll see positive regression in his strikeout numbers. Hellickson has been slightly worse against left-handed batters throughout his career, allowing them to hit for a .249 average with a .431 slugging percentage and a .322 wOBA. He has also struggled mightily against lefties this season, and similarly to the majority of his numbers, he could see regression against right-handed batters, as well. Colorado is in an elite spot tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros make their way into the “Vegas Stack” once again tonight. They only rank 18th in the MLB in runs scored, but they should see positive regression shortly, as they also rank sixth in the league in home runs, first in team batting average, and fourth in OPS. The Astros struggled at times in Houston last season, where they posted a .248 average with a .403 slugging percentage and a .730 OPS. They also averaged 4.6 runs and 2.7 extra-base hits per game at home in 2018. They are -169 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, and they feature an implied run total of 5.5 runs.
The Astros get a great matchup against Jake Odorizzi, who has seen mixed results this season. Through four starts, he owns a 1-2 record with a 4.77 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. He has allowed eight runs (seven earned runs) over only 5.1 road innings, though. Odorizzi’s also owns a 4.28 xFIP and a 4.43 SIERA, suggesting his numbers will stay similar as the season progresses. He has allowed a 50% fly ball rate this season, although he owns a low 5.9% HR/FB rate, which will regress closer to his 10.6% career rate. Odorizzi has posted a dominant 30.4% strikeout rate with a 14.3% swinging strike rate, although those numbers are significantly higher than his career averages. He has been a relatively similar pitcher against both right- and left-handed batters. In 2018, he allowed lefties to hit for a .236 average with a .447 slugging percentage and a .326 wOBA, while righties hit for a .246/.396/.318 line against him. Houston owns one of the best offenses in the MLB, and should have no problems finding success at home against Odorizzi.
Wildcard GPP: Low Owned Stack
Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox have featured a slightly below average offense through 20 games this season, ranking 21st in the MLB in runs scored, 18th in home runs and OPS, and 16th in team batting average. They will be playing on the road tonight, where they found more success in 2018. Overall, Chicago posted a .235 average with a .403 slugging percentage and a .700 OPS over 81 road games. They also averaged 4.1 runs and 3.1 extra-base hits per game away from home last season. They are -114 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs tonight, and they own one of the higher implied run totals on this slate at 4.9 runs.
David Hess will be taking the mound for the Baltimore Orioles tonight. He has struggled through five games (four starts) this season, posting a 1-3 record with a 5.57 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. Those numbers are on par with his 5.81 xFIP and 5.43 SIERA this season, as well. Hess has also struggled with 58.5% fly ball and 18.4% HR/FB rates in 2019, although these are a bit higher than his career averages. He has posted 17.7% strikeout and 6.7% swinging strike rates this season, as well. Throughout his career, Hess has been worse against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .262 average with a .541 slugging percentage and a .362 wOBA. He has also allowed righties to hit for a .259/.470/.342 line throughout his career. The White Sox are an offense that will benefit from playing in a hitter friendly stadium, and this is a matchup that may be too good to avoid.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Christian Yelich
Yelich is simply playing at a different level recently, hitting eight home runs over his last seven games. He has posted elite 62% hard-hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 99 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Yelich also owns 0.027 wOBA and 0.031 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Lucas Duda
Duda has struggled at times this season, but he enters this game with 0.09 wOBA and 0.168 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He has also been playing well recently, posting 50% hard-hit and 61% fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days.
Mark Canha
Canha has quietly been performing well recently, recording 57% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 97 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has also dominated left-handed pitching throughout his career, and he brings 0.07 wOBA and 0.159 ISO differentials against lefties into this game.
Matt Carpenter
Carpenter’s numbers are far from elite, but he owns tremendous peripherals. Over the last 15 days, he has recorded 46% hard-hit and 56% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity. He also gets a plus matchup tonight, and owns 0.027 wOBA and 0.022 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching.
Nick Castellanos
Castellanos’ game is likely to get canceled, but he’s a sneaky option against Chris Sale if they’re able to play it. He doesn’t own any home runs on the season, but he has posted 42% hard-hit and 61% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. It’s only a matter of time before the home runs follow.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Chris Bassitt
Bassitt will be making his debut tonight. He owns a 4-14 record with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP through 40 career games (30 starts). His career 4.61 xFIP and 4.54 SIERA are a bit higher than his ERA, but not drastically. He has limited his opponents power throughout his career, holding them to 34.2% fly ball and 7.0 HR/FB rates. Bassitt also owns career 17.8% strikeout and 7.7 swinging strike rates, although his strikeout rate has increased a bit since 2018. He’s a -142 favorite in a game set at 8.5 runs, and his opponents feature an implied run total of only 3.9 runs tonight.
Bassitt gets a matchup against the Texas Rangers, who have struggled at times on the road. They also rank sixth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking as a below average offense in team wOBA. Bassitt has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, holding left-handed batters to a .232 average with a .336 slugging percentage and a .296 wOBA. He’s a sinker ball pitcher, which will limit his opponents power. This is an elite matchup for him, as Bassitt should limit Texas in a pitcher friendly stadium, while adding strikeouts because of the matchup. He’s a safe option for his price tag, while also possessing strong upside against Texas.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Matt Chapman
It’s a bit surprising that Chapman comes with such a low price tag, as he has been playing at a high level recently. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .323 with a .710 slugging percentage and a 1.099 OPS. He owns six extra-base hits (three home runs) and nine RBIs over that span, as well. Chapman has posted 40% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 93 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been a more consistent and more powerful option in Oakland this season, as well.
Chapman gets a matchup against Mike Minor, who has looked outstanding this season. He owns a 2.60 ERA, although his 4.67 xFIP and 3.85 SIERA suggest he could see a bit of regression. He has also allowed a 41.6% fly ball rate and a 10.5% HR/FB rate throughout his career, while posting similar rates this season. His strikeout rate sits at 21%, while his swinging strike rate sits at 11.5% in 2019. Minor has struggled against right-handed batters throughout his career, allowing them to hit for a .245 average with a .422 slugging percentage and a .312 wOBA. Chapman is expected to hit second in the Oakland A’s offense, and he makes a strong option in all leagues tonight.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
