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Easy Breezy: Chalk Stack
Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies have found plenty of offensive success this season, ranking fifth in the MLB in runs scored, while also ranking 12th in home runs, team batting average, and OPS. Philadelphia was worse on the road last season, where they hit for a .232 average with a .375 slugging percentage and a .688 OPS. They also averaged only 3.8 runs and 2.7 extra-base hits per game away from home in 2018. The Phillies will be playing in the most hitter friendly stadium in the MLB tonight, though, and they have a new, improved offense. Tonight, they are -117 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving them an implied run total of 5.5 runs.
Philadelphia gets a matchup against Antonio Senzatela, who has allowed only one run over 6.2 innings in his only matchup this season. He’s likely to see regression from this point, though, as he owns a career 4.33 xFIP and 4.52 SIERA. He has been able to keep the ball on the ground throughout his career, recording 29.7% fly ball and 13.7% HR/FB rates. With that being said, he has allowed plenty of contact, as he only owns a 17.9% strikeout rate with a 7.5% swinging strike percentage in his career. Senzatela has been a reverse splits pitcher throughout his career, allowing right-handed batters to hit for a .269 average with a .458 slugging percentage and a .335 wOBA. He’s also allowing his opponents to hit for a .275/.489/.349 line in Colorado this season. Teams tend to get adjusted to the thin air in Colorado after a game or two, and we should see the best Philadelphia has to offer offensively. They are one of two “Chalk Stacks” on this smaller slate tonight.
Important Odds: Vegas Stack
Houston Astros
The Houston Astros feature an offense that has seen mixed results through 19 games. They currently rank 18th in the MLB in runs scored, ninth in home runs, first in team batting average, and third in OPS. The Astros were a significantly better offense on the road last season, where they posted a .262 average with a .446 slugging percentage and a .777 OPS. Houston also averaged a healthy 5.2 runs and 3.5 extra-base hits per game away from home. They aren -226 favorites in a game set at 9.5 runs, and they feature the highest implied run total on the slate at 5.8 runs.
The Astros get a great matchup against Adrian Sampson, who has struggled early this season. Through three games (one start) he owns an 0-1 record with a 5.93 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP. He has also struggled with a 5.61 xFIP and a 5.19 SIERA this season. Sampson only owns a 38.6% fly ball rates, but he has struggled with a 17.6% HR/FB rate this season, as well. He has struggled for strikeouts in 2019, recording a 15% strikeout rate to go along with a 10.1% swinging strike rate this season. Sampson has limited innings throughout his career, but he has been a reverse splits pitcher. He has given up a .348 average with a .630 slugging percentage and a .430 wOBA against right-handed batters. He has also allowed his opponents to record a .305/.542/.382 line at home. Houston is a lineup that features plenty of right-handed batters, who are at their best on the road. They’ll be a chalky stack tonight, but nearly every stack will be with only a few games.
Bales’ Bombs: HR Predictor
Rhys Hoskins
Hoskins has dominated right-handed pitching, posting 0.078 wOBA and 0.182 ISO differentials against righties. He also enters this game with 41% hard-hit and 35% fly ball rates to go along with a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Hoskins will also benefit from playing in Colorado tonight.
Joc Pederson
I’m on Pederson once again. He owns 47% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He’ll also be playing in an extremely hitter friendly stadium, while bringing 0.186 wOBA and 0.2 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game.
Hernan Perez
Perez isn’t known as a power hitter, but he owns 0.121 wOBA and 0.159 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He also possesses 40% hard-hit and fly ball rates with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, Perez is another player that will be playing in an extremely hitter friendly stadium tonight.
Hidden Gem: Value Pitcher
Aaron Nola
Nola has struggled quite a bit through four starts, posting a 1-0 record with a 7.45 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP. He owns a 4.55 xFIP and a 4.83 SIERA, which are significantly higher than his career averages. Nola has held his opponents to a 31.6% fly ball rate, but he has also allowed an absurd 27.8% HR/FB rate, which simply has to feature positive regression. Nola’s strikeout rate is down from 25.5% to 21.8% this season, as well. His swinging strike percentage is in the same position, as it has dropped from 10.8% to 8.4% this season. Tonight, Nola is a -116 favorite in a game set at 10.5 runs, giving his opponents an implied run total of 5.1 runs.
He gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking in the bottom-three in team wOBA. Nola has been a similar pitcher against both left- and right-handed pitchers throughout his career. He has held righties to a .231 average with a .363 slugging percentage and a .276 wOBA, while lefties have posted a .235/.375/.297 line against him. This is a smaller slate, and there aren’t many value arms. Nola certainly comes with some risk, but he’s still a high level pitcher, who is priced on his recent production and situation rather than his talent.
Hidden Gems: Value Hitters
Albert Pujols
Pujols has been struggling on paper recently, posting a .207 average with a .345 slugging percentage and a .687 OPS over his last 10 games. He could see positive regression soon, though, as he owns 43% hard-hit and 50% fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been at his best against left-handed pitching, as well, posting 0.002 wOBA and 0.075 ISO differentials against lefties.
Pujols gets a matchup against Yusei Kikuchi, who has struggled through five games this season. He owns an 0-1 record with a 4.23 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP. His sample size is extremely limited, but he has allowed a 35.3% fly ball rate with a 16.7% HR/FB rate. He has also struggled a bit with a 17.9% strikeout rate and an 8.6% swinging strike percentage. Kikuchi has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .256 average with a .465 slugging percentage and a .327 wOBA in 2019. Pujols is expected to hit fourth in the Los Angeles Angels lineup, and he’s a great tournament option on this slate.
Follow Justin Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
