Welcome everyone to Ben’s Pitching Preview! This season I will be getting back to my roots and focusing on my top SP options for each slate. After all, a SP Breakdown was my first ever regular article on this site when I started providing content many years ago. If you would like to support further and pick up a Core plays subscription, you can do so here. Let’s get into it!
Trevor Bauer
We have a light six game baseball slate tonight, which leaves my pitching pool more shallow than usual. At the top, we have two stars in Trevor Bauer, with my lean towards Bauer even in Coors Field. Bauer has been pretty much my favorite pitcher in real-life and DFS over the last four seasons, and 2020 was when we finally saw his ascension to new heights. His 2.94 SIERA is tops on this slate by a mile and it comes with massive 36% strikeouts. We can’t expect those elite of numbers again this season, but even with some regression we have a guy capable of striking out a third of the batters he faces. The main reason why I lean towards him tonight, however, is pitch count. We just don’t know how short the leash on some of these guys will be, and Snell is someone that never tends to get deep into games anyways. Bauer averaged 105 pitches per game last season (2nd most) and is someone that willingly will go deep into games. If spending up tonight, I’m focusing on hopefully a low-owned Bauer.
Pablo Lopez
Lopez is someone I’ve been high on since entering the MLB, and like Bauer, 2020 was when we really saw a big step forward from high. Albeit a small sample size, Lopez improved drastically in 2020 upping his strikeouts by over 4% and holding a 3.98 SIERA. These aren’t dominant numbers whatsoever, but nearly 25% strikeouts showcases the sort of upside he does possess in his ceiling. I don’t love the matchup vs the Rays, but there are more strikeouts in this lineup than seasons past. The projected Rays lineup struck out over 27% of the time last season vs right-handed pitching. Sandy Alcantara was able to rack up whiffs at will in yesterday’s game, and I’m looking for Lopez to continue his success on Friday night.
Yusei Kikuchi
Kikuchi is a DraftKings-only play for me today, seeing as he is the cheapest starter at only $6,000. I’m neutral in terms of feelings on Kikuchi, but there is no doubt he isn’t the same guy we saw his first season in the MLB. The increased velo we got from him in 2020 has held true in Spring Training. He has higher strikeout upside than your typical $6K pitcher, and we know that K’s are what we need in DFS. He’s cheap enough that some strikeouts can offset any runs he gives up at this price, and I think he is viable in all formats at this price tag.
Written by Ben Hossler (Follow @BenHossler on Twitter)
