MLB BATTER UP April 2nd, 2019
Let’s GOOOO!! MLB SZN is upon us and you know us OG’s at DFS Karma have been dominating this part of the industry for years and this season will just be more of the same. In this article I’ll be keeping a similair approach to how I built my article last season with my stacks, players I’m targeting from those stacks (and why), low-owned home run calls per position, and highest upside plays per position. As always, keep in touch with me through Discord and Twitter (@DF_Advantage) to suggest things you’d like me to add or take away from this article.
Top Stacks – One of the most important concepts to understand in DFS MLB. Watch our daily YouTube live podcast for more information on this understanding/mindset. Keep in mind it is ok to stack 4 guys or 3 from the same team. This mathematically increases your chances of “cashing” in tournaments. It isn’t as necessary to stack in cash games (double ups/heads up). Below is our rankings starting from the best at number 1.
Not only will I be identifying two teams I believe you should target in GPPs, but I will also discuss in the analysis which specific players I want exposure from these two teams AND why.
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- Astros – Keep in mind this will likely be a pretty popular stack tonight but after a brutal day yesterday I want to hit the nail on the head here and this is just a spot I cannot pass up. The Astros rank third on this main slate in the least standard deviation of run production from their 1-5 hitters behind the Rangers and the Orioles (because their whole lineup sucks). Tonight they face Shelby Miller who is just not a great pitcher facing one of the most elite lineups in baseball in a great hitters environment. I’m going to be highly concentrated in the top of the lineup here with guys like Alex Bregman (.351 wOBA – projected), Jose Altuve (.347 wOBA), Michael Brantley (.356 wOBA), Springer (.338 wOBA), and Correa (.336 wOBA). This is an extremely balanced lineup that profiles really well versus Miller in a spot Vegas is pouring money in on. I’m playing it safe today and stacking the Astros. –
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- Best “One-Off” – Michael Brantley
- Best Bet for a Homerun – Alex Bregman
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- Red Sox – The Red Sox are extremely undervalued tonight and I’m very excited to see what kind of ownership levels we get on them closer to lock given that Vegas has them as the 5th highest projected run total, which isn’t bad, but people still need to pay a premium to get these bats. I think they go over their implied run total tonight and I want to take advantage of this leverage spot. The Red Sox have some of the most talented players in all of baseball on this roster in Betts, Martinez, Devers, Bogaerts, and Bennetendi, who are all projected to start today and are going to see low ownership due to their premium prices. At most Fiers is going five innings in this game and without any K upside, I see no way he navigates through these hard-hitting bats. I am going to be heavily exposed to the top five in this order while trying to find value at pitching, I suggest you do the same and hit me up on twitter or Discord to find out where I’m going at P.
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- Best “one-Off” – Rafael Devers (price)
- Best Bet for a Homerun – JD Martinez
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Make sure to stay up to date with my core plays which can be utilized for cash games and single entry GPPs by DMing me on twitter and signing up for our core plays at www.dfskarma.com/shop. I will always be in discord, as usual, answering questions and giving additional insight to our subscribers and community on the day’s slate.
Bobby’s LOW-OWNED BOMB’S PER POSITION (Proj. ISO)
Highest Ceiling Player Per Position (Price/Ownership Not Considered)
Written by Bobby Viafora (Follow @DF_Advantage on Twitter)
